Eredivisie · Matchday 11

PSV vs Willem II prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

PSV
DLWLW
7 - 0
HT 2-0
Willem II
LLLLL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): PSV win 89%, draw 8%, Willem II win 4%; the final score was 7:0.

Full time: PSV 7-0 Willem II. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "PSV" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultPSV88.6%most likely
Correct score7:017.4%outside the listed scores (pooled "other" cell)
Total goals7+ goals15.4%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.581.4%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H67.2%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
PSV
89%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -3Miss
Willem II
44%
Correct scoreMiss
3:0 / 4:0
19%
Total goalsMiss
3 / 4 goals
37%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
67%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
81%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour PSV (89%); expected goals PSV 3.65 – 0.74 Willem II.
  • Goals look likely: 4.39 expected in total, 81% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 3:0 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (67%).
  • Last five: PSV DLWLW (2 wins), Willem II LLLLL (0 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

PSV 89%Draw 8%Willem II 4%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · PSV
3.65
Expected goals · Willem II
0.74
Most likely score
3:0 (10%)
Half-time result
69% / 24% / 7%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2PSVDrawWillem II
Home -3≈36.7%19.0%44.3%
Home -255.7%18.7%25.6%
Home -174.4%14.1%11.4%
Home +196.1%2.9%1.0%
Home +299.0%0.8%0.2%
Home +399.8%0.2%0.0%

Model's balanced line: Home -3

Correct score

PSV · Home
  • 1:04.6%
  • 2:08.3%
  • 2:16.1%
  • 3:010.1%
  • 3:17.4%
  • 3:22.8%
  • 4:09.2%
  • 4:16.8%
  • 4:22.5%
  • 5:06.7%
  • 5:15.0%
  • 5:21.8%
  • Other home win17.4%
Draw
  • 0:01.2%
  • 1:13.3%
  • 2:22.3%
  • 3:30.7%
  • Other draw0.1%
Willem II · Away
  • 0:11.0%
  • 0:20.3%
  • 1:21.2%
  • 0:30.1%
  • 1:30.3%
  • 2:30.6%
  • 0:40.0%
  • 1:40.1%
  • 2:40.1%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.0%
  • Other away win0.2%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
1.2%
1
5.5%
2
11.9%
3
17.5%
4
19.2%
5
16.9%
6
12.4%
7+
15.4%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over93.3%81.4%63.9%44.7%
Under6.7%18.6%36.1%55.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
44.5%
Over, even
36.8%
Under, odd
5.5%
Under, even
13.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
50.9%
Both teams to score: No
49.1%
Clean-sheet probability · PSV
47.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Willem II
2.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
PSV2.6%9.5%17.3%70.6%
Willem II47.7%35.3%13.1%3.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
67.2%
H/D
1.8%
H/A
0.4%
Draw
D/H
18.0%
D/D
4.0%
D/A
1.5%
Away
A/H
3.4%
A/D
1.8%
A/A
2.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

PSV

Founded as a works team of Philips, PSV is one of the Netherlands' 'big three' clubs, a regular Eredivisie title contender and 1987–88 European Cup winner, known for attacking, possession-based football.

City
Eindhoven, Netherlands
Stadium
Philips Stadion
Founded
1913
Head coach
Peter Bosz

Willem II

A historic Tilburg club nicknamed the Tricolores, three-time Dutch champions and long-time Eredivisie regulars.

City
Tilburg, Netherlands
Stadium
Koning Willem II Stadion
Founded
1896
Head coach
Adrie Koster (caretaker)

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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