Eredivisie Β· Matchday 11
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Heerenveen win 43%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen win 32%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Heerenveen 1-0 NEC Nijmegen. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Heerenveen" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Heerenveen | 43.1% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 5.0% | #7 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 9.1% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 33.6% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 13.8% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Heerenveen / NEC Nijmegen
- 76%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- NEC Nijmegen
- 57%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 19%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 42%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 26%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 66%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Heerenveen 43%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 32% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.42 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (26%).
- Last five: Heerenveen WWLWD (3 wins), NEC Nijmegen DDDDL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Heerenveen
- 1.84
- Expected goals Β· NEC Nijmegen
- 1.58
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 37% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Heerenveen | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.0% | 6.7% | 89.3% |
| Home -2 | 10.7% | 13.3% | 76.1% |
| Home -1β | 23.9% | 19.1% | 56.9% |
| Home +1 | 67.6% | 16.3% | 16.1% |
| Home +2 | 83.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Home +3 | 93.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.0%
- 2:05.5%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:03.4%
- 3:15.4%
- 3:24.2%
- 4:01.6%
- 4:12.5%
- 4:21.9%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.9%
- 5:20.7%
- Other home win2.7%
- 0:04.3%
- 1:110.6%
- 2:26.9%
- 3:32.2%
- Other draw0.5%
- 0:14.1%
- 0:24.1%
- 1:27.5%
- 0:32.2%
- 1:34.0%
- 2:33.6%
- 0:40.9%
- 1:41.6%
- 2:41.4%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.6% | 66.4% | 44.6% | 26.0% |
| Under | 13.4% | 33.6% | 55.4% | 74.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.8%
- Over, even
- 27.7%
- Under, odd
- 9.1%
- Under, even
- 24.5%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 67.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 32.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Heerenveen
- 20.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· NEC Nijmegen
- 15.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 15.9% | 29.2% | 26.9% | 28.0% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 20.6% | 32.5% | 25.7% | 21.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 26.0% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 13.8% | D/D 12.7% | D/A 10.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.3% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 18.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Heerenveen
A Frisian club from northern Netherlands, a long-time Eredivisie regular known for developing young talent and for its loyal supporters.
- City
- Heerenveen, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Abe Lenstra Stadion
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Robin Veldman
NEC Nijmegen
NEC is an Eredivisie club from Nijmegen that has become a regular European qualifier in recent seasons.
- City
- Nijmegen, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Goffertstadion
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Dick Schreuder
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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