Club football · AI probability model

Bundesliga predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

73 Bundesliga matches played this season, 3.51 goals per game; Bayern Munich top the model's strength ranking. The 8 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: High
Borussia DortmundvsSV Elversberg
Home 72%Draw 16%Away 12%
Most likely score
2:1 9%
Expected total goals
3.65
Over / under 2.5
Over 71%

AI picks: Borussia Dortmund · 2:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Mainz 05vsBayern Munich
Home 10%Draw 14%Away 76%
Most likely score
1:2 8%
Expected total goals
4.07
Over / under 2.5
Over 77%

AI picks: Bayern Munich · 1:2 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
SC PaderbornvsEintracht Frankfurt
Home 33%Draw 25%Away 42%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.23
Over / under 2.5
Over 63%

AI picks: SC Paderborn/Eintracht Frankfurt · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
RB LeipzigvsFC Augsburg
Home 67%Draw 17%Away 15%
Most likely score
2:1 9%
Expected total goals
4.06
Over / under 2.5
Over 77%

AI picks: RB Leipzig · 2:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
VfB StuttgartvsWerder Bremen
Home 51%Draw 23%Away 26%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.55
Over / under 2.5
Over 69%

AI picks: VfB Stuttgart · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1. FC KölnvsBayer Leverkusen
Home 25%Draw 23%Away 52%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.46
Over / under 2.5
Over 67%

AI picks: Bayer Leverkusen · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
SC FreiburgvsUnion Berlin
Home 63%Draw 21%Away 16%
Most likely score
2:0 10%
Expected total goals
3.09
Over / under 2.5
Over 60%

AI picks: SC Freiburg · 2:0 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
HoffenheimvsSchalke 04
Home 59%Draw 22%Away 20%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.29
Over / under 2.5
Over 64%

AI picks: Hoffenheim · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Bayern Munich8530278+1918DWWDW
2Borussia Dortmund8530146+818DWDDW
3SC Freiburg85121810+816WLLWD
4RB Leipzig85032211+1115WWLWL
5Werder Bremen84311714+315WWDDW
6Bayer Leverkusen84131816+213LLWWW
7SV Elversberg84131616013WLWLD
8Hamburger SV94051020-1012WLLWW
9Eintracht Frankfurt83231318-511WLWLD
10Mainz 0583141717010LLWLW
11FC Augsburg82331815+39LDLDL
12VfB Stuttgart83051415-19WLLWL
13Hoffenheim83051416-29LWWLL
141. FC Köln8233912-39DDLWL
15SC Paderborn823369-39DWDLW
16Union Berlin8143719-127DDDWL
17Schalke 04813449-56LDLLD
18Gladbach91171225-134LDWLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Bayern Munich+1.921.840.693.09 / 1.17
2Borussia Dortmund+0.711.140.721.92 / 1.21
3RB Leipzig+0.561.220.882.04 / 1.48
4Bayer Leverkusen+0.491.210.922.03 / 1.54
5VfB Stuttgart+0.391.180.951.99 / 1.60
6SC Freiburg+0.181.010.901.70 / 1.52
7Hoffenheim+0.081.071.021.81 / 1.72
8Mainz 05-0.051.001.031.68 / 1.74
9Werder Bremen-0.120.971.041.63 / 1.74
10Eintracht Frankfurt-0.150.981.081.66 / 1.81
11FC Augsburg-0.260.961.121.62 / 1.88
121. FC Köln-0.380.811.041.36 / 1.74
13Schalke 04-0.460.680.951.15 / 1.60
14SV Elversberg-0.470.891.171.49 / 1.97
15SC Paderborn-0.580.721.061.21 / 1.78
16Gladbach-0.590.831.181.40 / 1.98
17Hamburger SV-0.620.771.141.30 / 1.92
18Union Berlin-0.650.711.101.20 / 1.85

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

2/6Hit
Hamburger SV3 - 1Gladbach
Home 42%Draw 25%Away 33%

AI picks: Hamburger SV/Gladbach · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Eintracht Frankfurt3 - 1Hamburger SV
Home 63%Draw 20%Away 17%

AI picks: Eintracht Frankfurt · 2:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Union Berlin1 - 11. FC Köln
Home 36%Draw 27%Away 37%

AI picks: Union Berlin/1. FC Köln · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Bayern Munich2 - 2Borussia Dortmund
Home 71%Draw 16%Away 13%

AI picks: Bayern Munich · 2:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Werder Bremen2 - 0Hoffenheim
Home 40%Draw 25%Away 35%

AI picks: Werder Bremen/Hoffenheim · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Schalke 040 - 2RB Leipzig
Home 24%Draw 25%Away 51%

AI picks: RB Leipzig · 1:1 · Over 2.5

1/6Miss
Gladbach0 - 0SC Paderborn
Home 45%Draw 25%Away 30%

AI picks: Gladbach/SC Paderborn · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Bayer Leverkusen2 - 4VfB Stuttgart
Home 55%Draw 21%Away 24%

AI picks: Bayer Leverkusen · 2:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
FC Augsburg1 - 2SC Freiburg
Home 37%Draw 25%Away 38%

AI picks: FC Augsburg/SC Freiburg · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
SV Elversberg4 - 1Mainz 05
Home 26%Draw 24%Away 50%

AI picks: SV Elversberg/Mainz 05 · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 73 · 1X2 accuracy 53.4% · RPS 0.218

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=73
1X2 (match result)64.4%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High63.6%
Handicap 1X250.7%
Correct score (top 2)15.1%
Total goals (top 2)35.6%
Half-time / full-time34.3%
Over / under 2.569.9%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
3.51
Home wins
49.3%
Draws
21.9%
Away wins
28.8%
Over 2.5
69.9%
Both teams score
58.9%
Matches
73
HT / FT
39.5%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
8.2%
1
11.0%
2
11.0%
3
16.4%
4
20.5%
5
19.2%
6
5.5%
7+
8.2%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
28.8%
H/D
6.9%
H/A
5.5%
D/H
17.8%
D/D
11.0%
D/A
5.5%
A/H
2.7%
A/D
4.1%
A/A
17.8%