Bundesliga Β· Matchday 9

Hamburger SV vs Gladbach prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Hamburger SV
LLWWW
3 - 1
HT 1-1
Gladbach
DWLLL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Hamburger SV win 42%, draw 25%, Gladbach win 33%; the final score was 3:1.

Full time: Hamburger SV 3-1 Gladbach. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Hamburger SV" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultHamburger SV41.8%most likely
Correct score3:14.9%#9 of 31
Total goals4 goals17.3%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.559.9%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/H14.3%#3 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Hamburger SV / Gladbach
75%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
Gladbach
58%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
45%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
25%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
60%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Hamburger SV 42%, draw 25%, Gladbach 33% β€” no clear lean from the model.
  • Goals look likely: 3.10 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
  • Last five: Hamburger SV LLWWW (3 wins), Gladbach DWLLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Hamburger SV 42%Draw 25%Gladbach 33%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Hamburger SV
1.65
Expected goals Β· Gladbach
1.45
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
33% / 40% / 27%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Hamburger SVDrawGladbach
Home -33.1%6.0%90.9%
Home -29.1%12.8%78.1%
Home -1β‰ˆ21.9%19.9%58.2%
Home +167.0%17.4%15.6%
Home +284.4%9.8%5.8%
Home +394.2%4.0%1.8%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Hamburger SV Β· Home
  • 1:06.7%
  • 2:06.2%
  • 2:18.9%
  • 3:03.4%
  • 3:14.9%
  • 3:23.5%
  • 4:01.4%
  • 4:12.0%
  • 4:21.5%
  • 5:00.5%
  • 5:10.7%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win1.7%
Draw
  • 0:05.3%
  • 1:111.5%
  • 2:26.4%
  • 3:31.7%
  • Other draw0.3%
Gladbach Β· Away
  • 0:15.8%
  • 0:24.7%
  • 1:27.8%
  • 0:32.3%
  • 1:33.8%
  • 2:33.1%
  • 0:40.8%
  • 1:41.4%
  • 2:41.1%
  • 0:50.2%
  • 1:50.4%
  • 2:50.3%
  • Other away win1.2%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.3%
1
12.5%
2
22.4%
3
22.4%
4
17.3%
5
10.7%
6
5.6%
7+
3.9%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over82.3%59.9%37.5%20.2%
Under17.7%40.1%62.5%79.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
35.9%
Over, even
24.0%
Under, odd
12.5%
Under, even
27.7%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
62.6%
Both teams to score: No
37.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Hamburger SV
23.5%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Gladbach
19.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Hamburger SV19.2%31.7%26.2%23.0%
Gladbach23.5%34.0%24.6%17.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
24.6%
H/D
5.7%
H/A
2.4%
Draw
D/H
14.3%
D/D
13.9%
D/A
11.7%
Away
A/H
2.9%
A/D
5.7%
A/A
18.8%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Hamburger SV

One of Germany's historic clubs and a European Cup winner in 1983, Hamburg returned to the Bundesliga in 2025 and are playing their second straight top-flight season in 2026–27 under Merlin Polzin.

City
Hamburg, Germany
Stadium
Volksparkstadion
Founded
1887
Head coach
Merlin Polzin

Gladbach

Nicknamed "the Foals", Gladbach are a historic Bundesliga club with five league titles in the 1970s who play at Borussia-Park, and Alexander Blessin took over as head coach in September 2026.

City
MΓΆnchengladbach, Germany
Stadium
Borussia-Park
Founded
1900
Head coach
Alexander Blessin

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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