Bundesliga · Matchday 9
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Borussia Dortmund a 72% chance of winning, 16% for a draw and 12% for SV Elversberg; the single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) with 3.65 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Borussia Dortmund
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -2
- SV Elversberg
- 49%
- Correct score
- 2:1 / 2:0
- 18%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 49%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 71%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Borussia Dortmund host newly promoted SV Elversberg in Bundesliga Matchday 9 unbeaten in their last five (two wins, three draws), including a 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich and a 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. Top scorer Serhou Guirassy is confirmed out, so Fábio Silva is set to lead the line. Elversberg arrive with two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five, and have conceded 16 in eight league games. Rest is 7 days for Dortmund and 8 for Elversberg.
The published probabilities make Dortmund clear favourites: home win 73%, draw 16%, away win 11%. Expected goals are 2.63–0.94. The most likely scores are 2:0 (10%), 2:1 (9%) and 3:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 69% and both teams scoring at 57%, so a goal-friendly match is expected, though Elversberg's attack means a Dortmund clean sheet is not assured.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:31 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Borussia Dortmund (72%); expected goals Borussia Dortmund 2.65 – 1.00 SV Elversberg.
- Goals look likely: 3.65 expected in total, 71% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (49%).
- Last five: Borussia Dortmund DWDDW (2 wins), SV Elversberg WLWLD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Borussia Dortmund
- 2.65
- Expected goals · SV Elversberg
- 1.00
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 53% / 33% / 14%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 15.9% | 15.0% | 69.0% |
| Home -2≈ | 31.0% | 20.4% | 48.7% |
| Home -1 | 51.3% | 20.7% | 27.9% |
| Home +1 | 88.4% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| Home +2 | 96.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Home +3 | 99.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:06.5%
- 2:09.1%
- 2:19.1%
- 3:08.0%
- 3:18.1%
- 3:24.0%
- 4:05.3%
- 4:15.3%
- 4:22.7%
- 5:02.8%
- 5:12.8%
- 5:21.4%
- Other home win6.7%
- 0:02.9%
- 1:17.2%
- 2:24.6%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:12.3%
- 0:21.3%
- 1:23.5%
- 0:30.4%
- 1:31.2%
- 2:31.5%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.3%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 88.3% | 70.6% | 49.5% | 30.3% |
| Under | 11.7% | 29.4% | 50.5% | 69.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 40.5%
- Over, even
- 30.1%
- Under, odd
- 8.8%
- Under, even
- 20.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Borussia Dortmund
- 36.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · SV Elversberg
- 7.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 7.1% | 18.7% | 24.8% | 49.4% |
| SV Elversberg | 36.7% | 36.8% | 18.4% | 8.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 48.5% | H/D 3.8% | H/A 1.0% |
| Draw | D/H 19.6% | D/D 8.7% | D/A 4.4% |
| Away | A/H 4.0% | A/D 3.8% | A/A 6.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Borussia Dortmund
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: N. Kovač
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 24 D. Svensson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 21 Fábio Silva
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
SV Elversberg
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: V. Wagner
- 20 N. Kristof
- 26 L. Sirch
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 40 Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 42 D. Mokwa
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Dortmund are heavy favourites at home against newly promoted Elversberg, but the confirmed absence of top scorer Serhou Guirassy and a midweek Champions League outing trim their edge slightly, with Fábio Silva set to lead the line. Elversberg's porous defence (16 conceded in eight) keeps the goal expectation high, though their own attacking output means a clean sheet for Dortmund is far from guaranteed. We sit marginally below the market on a home win, around 71-72%, with goals likely.
- Borussia Dortmund · Serhou Guirassy (top scorer, 8 goals) is out with a thigh/muscle strain suffered in the Champions League win over Real Betis. Kovač confirmed it at Friday's press conference. (major · bundesliga.com)
- Borussia Dortmund · Emre Can (cruciate ligament) and Giannis Konstantelias (cruciate ligament) remain out, as does Justin Lerma (muscle injury). (moderate · bvb.de)
- Borussia Dortmund · Marcel Sabitzer, who missed the Champions League game through illness, is back in contention for the Elversberg match. (minor · beinsports.com)
- Borussia Dortmund · Dortmund played Real Betis in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, so some rotation is possible. Fábio Silva is expected to lead the attack, with Karetsas and Beier as options. (moderate · fussballnationalmannschaft.net)
- Borussia Dortmund · Dortmund are unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season (5 wins, 3 draws) and go into the international break second in the table. (minor · thehardtackle.com)
- SV Elversberg · Jan Gyamerah (thigh), Luis Seifert (syndesmosis, long-term) and Tom Zimmerschied (ankle ligaments) are out for Elversberg. (moderate · ligainsider.de)
- SV Elversberg · Noah Darvich is listed as out or doubtful with muscular problems. Otherwise Elversberg have a fairly clean bill of health. (minor · onefootball.com)
- SV Elversberg · Elversberg are a newly promoted side. Their last two league games were a 4-1 win over Mainz and a 0-4 loss at RB Leipzig. They have scored 16 and conceded 16 in eight games and kept one clean sheet. (minor · thehardtackle.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Borussia Dortmund
One of Germany's most successful clubs, Dortmund are a regular Bundesliga top-four side known for fast attacking football, youth development and the Yellow Wall at Signal Iduna Park.
- City
- Dortmund, Germany
- Stadium
- Signal Iduna Park
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Niko Kovač
SV Elversberg
A small-town Saarland club that won promotion in 2026 to reach the Bundesliga for the first time, known for a brave, attacking style.
- City
- Spiesen-Elversberg, Germany
- Stadium
- Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Vincent Wagner
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Borussia Dortmund
- D@ Bayern Munich2-2 · 10-31
- WEintracht Frankfurt1-0 · 10-24
- D@ Union Berlin0-0 · 10-17
- DWerder Bremen2-2 · 10-09
- W@ VfB Stuttgart1-0 · 09-19
SV Elversberg
- WMainz 054-1 · 10-30
- L@ RB Leipzig0-4 · 10-24
- WFC Augsburg4-3 · 10-17
- L@ Union Berlin0-1 · 10-10
- D@ Schalke 040-0 · 09-20
Borussia Dortmund 7 days rest · SV Elversberg 8 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
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