Bundesliga · Matchday 8
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Bayer Leverkusen win 55%, draw 21%, VfB Stuttgart win 24%; the final score was 2:4.
Full time: Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Bayer Leverkusen" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | VfB Stuttgart | 23.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:4 | 1.3% | #23 of 31 |
| Total goals | 6 goals | 9.4% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.4% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 13.5% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Bayer Leverkusen
- 55%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- VfB Stuttgart
- 45%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:1 / 1:1
- 17%
- Total goalsMiss
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 35%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 73%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Bayer Leverkusen (55%); expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 – 1.50 VfB Stuttgart.
- Goals look likely: 3.82 expected in total, 73% for over 2.5 and 71% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (35%).
- Last five: Bayer Leverkusen LWWWD (3 wins), VfB Stuttgart LLWLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Bayer Leverkusen
- 2.31
- Expected goals · VfB Stuttgart
- 1.50
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 43% / 34% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 8.3% | 10.1% | 81.6% |
| Home -2 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 65.1% |
| Home -1≈ | 34.9% | 20.0% | 45.1% |
| Home +1 | 76.3% | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| Home +2 | 89.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Home +3 | 96.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:04.2%
- 2:05.9%
- 2:18.8%
- 3:04.5%
- 3:16.8%
- 3:25.1%
- 4:02.6%
- 4:13.9%
- 4:23.0%
- 5:01.2%
- 5:11.8%
- 5:21.4%
- Other home win5.5%
- 0:03.1%
- 1:18.5%
- 2:26.7%
- 3:32.6%
- Other draw0.6%
- 0:12.5%
- 0:22.5%
- 1:25.8%
- 0:31.2%
- 1:32.9%
- 2:33.3%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:41.3%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 90.3% | 73.4% | 53.0% | 33.6% |
| Under | 9.7% | 26.6% | 47.0% | 66.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 41.6%
- Over, even
- 31.8%
- Under, odd
- 6.7%
- Under, even
- 19.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 71.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 29.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Bayer Leverkusen
- 22.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · VfB Stuttgart
- 9.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 9.9% | 22.9% | 26.5% | 40.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 22.2% | 33.4% | 25.1% | 19.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 34.8% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 15.9% | D/D 10.5% | D/A 8.0% |
| Away | A/H 4.2% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 13.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Bayer Leverkusen
A works club backed by the Bayer company, Leverkusen won the 2023–24 Bundesliga unbeaten, finished 6th in 2025–26 and have played in the Champions League and reached the DFB-Pokal semi-finals.
- City
- Leverkusen, Germany
- Stadium
- BayArena
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Carles Martínez Novell
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart is a traditional Bundesliga club from Baden-Württemberg, five-time German champions and 2024–25 DFB-Pokal winners, who finished 4th in the Bundesliga in 2025–26.
- City
- Stuttgart, Germany
- Stadium
- MHPArena
- Founded
- 1893
- Head coach
- Sebastian Hoeneß
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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