Bundesliga · Matchday 9
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives 1. FC Köln a 25% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 52% for Bayer Leverkusen; the single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) with 3.46 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Bayer Leverkusen
- 52%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- 1. FC Köln
- 48%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 19%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 67%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Köln host Leverkusen in Bundesliga Matchday 9 with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five. Leverkusen have won three of five, but they lost 2-4 to Stuttgart and 0-3 at Hoffenheim. Köln have had seven days' rest, Leverkusen eight. Reports say Köln are without both recognised strikers, Skhiri and two centre-backs, while Leverkusen are still short of several attackers but can call on Schick. Leverkusen won all four recent meetings.
The market consensus makes Leverkusen favourites at 52%, with a Köln win at 25% and a draw at 23%. Expected goals are 1.40 for Köln and 2.06 for Leverkusen. The likeliest scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7%). The published probabilities put over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring at 67% each, though the thinned-out attacks could temper that.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 01:23 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Bayer Leverkusen (52%); expected goals 1. FC Köln 1.41 – 2.05 Bayer Leverkusen.
- Goals look likely: 3.46 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (32%).
- Last five: 1. FC Köln DDLWL (1 wins), Bayer Leverkusen LLWWW (3 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: 1. FC Köln 0 wins, 0 draws, Bayer Leverkusen 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · 1. FC Köln
- 1.41
- Expected goals · Bayer Leverkusen
- 2.05
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 23% / 37% / 40%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | 1. FC Köln | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.2% | 2.9% | 96.0% |
| Home -2 | 4.0% | 7.4% | 88.5% |
| Home -1 | 11.5% | 13.8% | 74.8% |
| Home +1≈ | 48.5% | 20.6% | 31.0% |
| Home +2 | 69.0% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
| Home +3 | 84.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.5%
- 2:03.1%
- 2:16.4%
- 3:01.5%
- 3:13.0%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:11.1%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.4%
- 0:04.1%
- 1:110.0%
- 2:26.6%
- 3:32.1%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.5%
- 0:26.6%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.5%
- 1:36.4%
- 2:34.5%
- 0:42.3%
- 1:43.3%
- 2:42.3%
- 0:51.0%
- 1:51.3%
- 2:50.9%
- Other away win3.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.9% | 67.2% | 45.5% | 26.7% |
| Under | 13.1% | 32.8% | 54.5% | 73.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.1%
- Over, even
- 28.1%
- Under, odd
- 9.0%
- Under, even
- 23.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 66.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 33.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · 1. FC Köln
- 12.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Bayer Leverkusen
- 24.5%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 24.5% | 34.5% | 24.2% | 16.8% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 12.8% | 26.3% | 27.0% | 33.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 14.2% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 3.7% |
| Draw | D/H 8.9% | D/D 12.1% | D/A 16.0% |
| Away | A/H 2.2% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 31.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): 1. FC Köln 25.2% · Draw 23.2% · Bayer Leverkusen 51.5% · 2.5+ 67.2%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.93 | 4.11 | 1.87 | 3.25: 1.88 / 2.01 | +0.75: 1.82 / 2.10 |
| 1xBet | 3.92 | 4.37 | 1.88 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.86 | 0: 3.02 / 1.46 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.91 | 4.16 | 1.85 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.80 | +0.5: 1.98 / 1.85 |
| Coolbet | 4.00 | 4.30 | 1.78 | 3.5: 2.05 / 1.78 | +1: 1.55 / 2.53 |
| GTbets | 3.83 | 4.29 | 1.81 | 3.5: 1.99 / 1.79 | +0.5: 1.96 / 1.82 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.82 | 4.25 | 1.83 | 3.5: 2.03 / 1.80 | +1: 1.60 / 2.38 |
| Matchbook | 4.00 | 4.10 | 1.95 | 3.5: 2.12 / 1.80 | +0.5: 2.00 / 1.90 |
| Betsson | 3.65 | 4.00 | 1.85 | 2.5: 1.42 / 2.91 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 3.65 | 3.95 | 1.91 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.73 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.76 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.74 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.85 | 2.5: 1.41 / 2.85 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 3.65 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.63 | – |
| Tipico | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.85 | 3.5: 1.97 / 1.75 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.95 | 4.25 | 1.81 | 3.5: 2.07 / 1.72 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this is a meeting of two depleted squads: Köln lose both recognised strikers, midfield organiser Skhiri and two centre-backs, while Leverkusen are still missing a cluster of attackers but can field Schick and most of their first-choice spine. Because these absences have been public for days and are already embedded in the bookmaker consensus, Claude sees little reason to depart from the market, which rightly favours Leverkusen despite their recent defensive wobble. With both attacks thinned out, a very high-scoring game looks a touch less likely than the consensus implies.
- 1. FC Köln · Köln are without Thijs Dallinga (cruciate ligament tear), Timo Hübers (knee) and Imad Rondić (thigh muscle injury). (moderate · bundesliga.com)
- 1. FC Köln · Midfielder Ellyes Skhiri is out with an ankle/syndesmosis injury, so Paul Okon-Engstler is expected to start at the base of midfield. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- 1. FC Köln · Rav van den Berg is out with a muscle injury, so Köln will probably play a back three of Schmied, Simpson-Pusey and Krauß. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- 1. FC Köln · Köln are 14th with 9 points from 8 games and have scored only once in their last three league games. They are unbeaten at home this season. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Bayer Leverkusen · Leverkusen remain without Martin Terrier, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Christian Kofane and Nathan Tella, which leaves their attacking options limited. (major · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Bayer Leverkusen · Guéla Doué (muscle) and Kennet Eichhorn (ill) are also listed as unavailable for Leverkusen. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- Bayer Leverkusen · Leverkusen are 6th with 13 points and have lost to Stuttgart (2-4) and Hoffenheim (0-3) in their last two league games, so they are under pressure in the top-four race. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
1. FC Köln
Cologne-based club nicknamed the Billy Goats (Die Geißböcke), three-time German champions and Bundesliga founding members, who returned to the top flight after winning the 2024–25 2. Bundesliga and finished 14th in 2025–26.
- City
- Cologne, Germany
- Stadium
- RheinEnergieStadion
- Founded
- 1948
- Head coach
- René Wagner
Bayer Leverkusen
A works club backed by the Bayer company, Leverkusen won the 2023–24 Bundesliga unbeaten, finished 6th in 2025–26 and have played in the Champions League and reached the DFB-Pokal semi-finals.
- City
- Leverkusen, Germany
- Stadium
- BayArena
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Carles Martínez Novell
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
1. FC Köln
- D@ Union Berlin1-1 · 11-01
- DSchalke 040-0 · 10-24
- L@ Eintracht Frankfurt0-1 · 10-16
- WGladbach2-1 · 10-11
- L@ Hamburger SV1-2 · 09-19
Bayer Leverkusen
- LVfB Stuttgart2-4 · 10-31
- L@ Hoffenheim0-3 · 10-25
- WSC Freiburg2-1 · 10-18
- W@ Mainz 054-3 · 10-10
- WRB Leipzig2-0 · 09-20
1. FC Köln 7 days rest · Bayer Leverkusen 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-251. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 2025-12-13Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 2024-03-031. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 2023-10-08Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
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