Bundesliga Β· Matchday 9
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 26% for Werder Bremen; the single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) with 3.55 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- VfB Stuttgart
- 51%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Werder Bremen
- 49%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 19%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 69%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Stuttgart host Werder Bremen on Bundesliga matchday 9, with both sides on seven days' rest. The hosts have won two of their last five, including 4-2 at Leverkusen. Reports say they are without Angelo Stiller and likely Atakan Karazor in midfield. Bremen are unbeaten in seven and have scored 12 goals in their last five, though their squad is thin.
The published probabilities favour Stuttgart: 57% home win, 21% draw, 22% Bremen win. Expected goals are 2.33β1.41, with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 69%. The likeliest scores are 2:1 and 1:1 (9% each), then 3:1 (7%). The figures blend our model with the consensus of 23 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:42 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour VfB Stuttgart (51%); expected goals VfB Stuttgart 2.08 β 1.46 Werder Bremen.
- Goals look likely: 3.55 expected in total, 69% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
- Last five: VfB Stuttgart WLLWL (2 wins), Werder Bremen WWDDW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: VfB Stuttgart 2 wins, 2 draws, Werder Bremen 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· VfB Stuttgart
- 2.08
- Expected goals Β· Werder Bremen
- 1.46
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 39% / 36% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 6.3% | 8.9% | 84.9% |
| Home -2 | 15.1% | 15.6% | 69.3% |
| Home -1β | 30.7% | 20.3% | 49.0% |
| Home +1 | 73.9% | 14.0% | 12.1% |
| Home +2 | 87.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| Home +3 | 95.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.1%
- 2:06.3%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:04.3%
- 3:16.4%
- 3:24.6%
- 4:02.3%
- 4:13.3%
- 4:22.4%
- 5:00.9%
- 5:11.4%
- 5:21.0%
- Other home win3.8%
- 0:03.8%
- 1:19.7%
- 2:26.7%
- 3:32.3%
- Other draw0.5%
- 0:13.3%
- 0:23.1%
- 1:26.4%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:33.1%
- 2:33.3%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 87.8% | 68.8% | 47.3% | 28.3% |
| Under | 12.2% | 31.2% | 52.7% | 71.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.7%
- Over, even
- 29.0%
- Under, odd
- 8.5%
- Under, even
- 22.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 68.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 31.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· VfB Stuttgart
- 23.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Werder Bremen
- 12.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 12.5% | 25.9% | 27.0% | 34.6% |
| Werder Bremen | 23.2% | 33.9% | 24.8% | 18.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 31.6% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.3% |
| Draw | D/H 15.7% | D/D 11.7% | D/A 9.0% |
| Away | A/H 3.8% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 14.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): VfB Stuttgart 51.0% Β· Draw 22.9% Β· Werder Bremen 26.1% Β· 2.5+ 68.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 4.16 | 3.84 | 3.5: 1.98 / 1.93 | -0.5: 1.91 / 2.02 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 4.45 | 3.70 | 3.5: 1.97 / 1.97 | 0: 1.51 / 2.82 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.88 | 4.20 | 3.76 | 3.5: 2.00 / 1.87 | -0.5: 1.88 / 2.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.91 | 4.20 | 3.70 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.95 | -1: 2.52 / 1.58 |
| GTbets | 1.86 | 4.21 | 3.57 | 3.5: 1.86 / 1.91 | -0.5: 1.85 / 1.93 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.87 | 4.33 | 3.60 | 3.5: 1.91 / 1.91 | -1: 2.46 / 1.56 |
| Matchbook | 1.93 | 4.30 | 3.90 | 3.5: 1.98 / 1.92 | -0.5: 1.89 / 2.04 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 4.05 | 3.65 | 2.5: 1.39 / 3.07 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 1.89 | 4.10 | 3.65 | 3.5: 1.86 / 1.81 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.83 | 3.95 | 3.45 | 3.5: 1.92 / 1.88 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.85 | 4.05 | 3.65 | 2.5: 1.37 / 3.00 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.80 | 3.85 | 3.35 | 3.5: 1.80 / 1.76 | β |
| Tipico | 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 3.5: 1.83 / 1.90 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.88 | 4.20 | 3.65 | 3.5: 1.89 / 1.85 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Stuttgart remain favourites at home, but the loss of Angelo Stiller and the likely absence of Atakan Karazor leave them without their two main central midfielders only days after a Champions League trip to Istanbul. Werder Bremen arrive unbeaten in seven and scoring regularly, albeit with a thin squad of their own. We shade the home win slightly below the market and expect goals at both ends.
- VfB Stuttgart Β· Midfield playmaker Angelo Stiller is out with a groin/adductor injury, expected back around the November international break. (major Β· stuttgarter-nachrichten.de)
- VfB Stuttgart Β· Atakan Karazor is very doubtful with a bleed in his thigh, picked up in the Champions League loss at Galatasaray, and a start looks unlikely. Yannik Spalt or Nikolas Nartey could replace him. (moderate Β· stuttgarter-nachrichten.de)
- VfB Stuttgart Β· Josha Vagnoman (hamstring), Dan-Axel Zagadou (return from thigh injury), Leo Sauer and Justin Diehl are also unavailable. Grischa PrΓΆmel was examined and is doubtful, with no diagnosis given by the coach. (moderate Β· whoscored.com)
- VfB Stuttgart Β· Stuttgart lost 0-2 at Galatasaray in the Champions League on Tuesday and have lost two of their three home league games this season. They have 9 points from 8 games. (minor Β· thestatszone.com)
- Werder Bremen Β· Mitchell Weiser is out with a thigh injury picked up against Hoffenheim. Eren Dinkci is expected to replace him in the XI. (moderate Β· wettbasis.com)
- Werder Bremen Β· Bremen are missing up to nine players, including Agu, Stage, Alvero, Musah, Ndiaye and Topp. Niklas Stark may return after not appearing on the unavailable list at the coach's press conference. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Werder Bremen Β· Bremen are fifth with 15 points and unbeaten in seven league games. Their only league loss this season came earlier in the campaign, and they are chasing a third straight win. (minor Β· thestatszone.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart is a traditional Bundesliga club from Baden-WΓΌrttemberg, five-time German champions and 2024β25 DFB-Pokal winners, who finished 4th in the Bundesliga in 2025β26.
- City
- Stuttgart, Germany
- Stadium
- MHPArena
- Founded
- 1893
- Head coach
- Sebastian HoeneΓ
Werder Bremen
A historic northern German club with four Bundesliga titles (1965, 1988 excluded; 1993, 1994, 2004), Werder Bremen has recently been a lower-to-mid-table Bundesliga side playing at the Weserstadion.
- City
- Bremen, Germany
- Stadium
- Weserstadion
- Founded
- 1899
- Head coach
- Daniel Thioune
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
VfB Stuttgart
- W@ Bayer Leverkusen4-2 Β· 10-31
- LGladbach2-3 Β· 10-23
- L@ Hamburger SV0-1 Β· 10-17
- W@ SC Paderborn2-0 Β· 10-10
- LBorussia Dortmund0-1 Β· 09-19
Werder Bremen
- WHoffenheim2-0 Β· 10-31
- W@ Mainz 053-2 Β· 10-24
- DSC Paderborn2-2 Β· 10-17
- D@ Borussia Dortmund2-2 Β· 10-09
- WFC Augsburg3-2 Β· 09-19
VfB Stuttgart 7 days rest Β· Werder Bremen 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-26VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 2025-12-14Werder Bremen 0-4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2025-04-13VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 2024-11-30Werder Bremen 2-2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2024-04-21Werder Bremen 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2023-12-02VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Werder BremenBundesliga
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Bundesliga β