Club football · AI probability model

Premier League predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

92 Premier League matches played this season, 2.70 goals per game; Arsenal top the model's strength ranking. The 8 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: High
ArsenalvsHull City
Home 84%Draw 12%Away 5%
Most likely score
2:0 14%
Expected total goals
3.34
Over / under 2.5
Over 65%

AI picks: Arsenal · 2:0 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
FulhamvsNewcastle United
Home 47%Draw 26%Away 27%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.99
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: Fulham/Newcastle United · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Nottingham ForestvsManchester City
Home 20%Draw 23%Away 57%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.04
Over / under 2.5
Over 59%

AI picks: Manchester City · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
BrightonvsBrentford
Home 50%Draw 25%Away 25%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.10
Over / under 2.5
Over 60%

AI picks: Brighton · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Crystal PalacevsLiverpool
Home 17%Draw 22%Away 61%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.15
Over / under 2.5
Over 61%

AI picks: Liverpool · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Ipswich TownvsBournemouth
Home 25%Draw 25%Away 50%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.93
Over / under 2.5
Over 56%

AI picks: Bournemouth · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
SunderlandvsChelsea
Home 26%Draw 26%Away 48%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.79
Over / under 2.5
Over 53%

AI picks: Draw/Chelsea · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Manchester UnitedvsAston Villa
Home 44%Draw 26%Away 30%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
3.09
Over / under 2.5
Over 60%

AI picks: Manchester United/Aston Villa · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Arsenal9801145+924WWWWL
2Manchester City97022010+1021LLWWW
3Brighton9612247+1719WLWWW
4Chelsea95131915+416WLWWL
5Everton104421210+216WWLLD
6Liverpool9432119+215LWWLW
7Brentford9351169+714WDLDW
8Leeds United10352108+214WLDDL
9Bournemouth93331413+112WWWLL
10Tottenham Hotspur103341011-112LWWWD
11Aston Villa93331013-312DWWDW
12Hull City92521110+111DDLDL
13Newcastle United93241215-311LWLLW
14Ipswich Town93241418-411DDLWL
15Fulham9234911-29DWWLD
16Coventry City103071019-99LWLLW
17Manchester United91441015-57LLDDD
18Crystal Palace9216921-127LLLWD
19Nottingham Forest9135612-66LDLLL
20Sunderland9126717-105LDLLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Arsenal+0.961.290.611.83 / 0.86
2Manchester City+0.831.390.801.97 / 1.14
3Liverpool+0.481.200.861.70 / 1.22
4Brighton+0.481.180.851.68 / 1.20
5Chelsea+0.361.230.971.74 / 1.37
6Brentford+0.201.110.971.58 / 1.38
7Bournemouth+0.131.050.961.49 / 1.36
8Manchester United+0.121.080.991.53 / 1.41
9Tottenham Hotspur+0.040.970.941.38 / 1.34
10Aston Villa-0.071.011.051.43 / 1.50
11Leeds United-0.080.850.911.21 / 1.29
12Everton-0.140.880.971.25 / 1.38
13Newcastle United-0.170.981.101.39 / 1.56
14Fulham-0.190.860.991.22 / 1.41
15Nottingham Forest-0.250.821.001.17 / 1.42
16Sunderland-0.360.781.031.10 / 1.47
17Ipswich Town-0.470.931.261.32 / 1.78
18Coventry City-0.600.871.291.23 / 1.83
19Crystal Palace-0.610.821.251.16 / 1.77
20Hull City-0.670.721.191.02 / 1.69

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

3/6Miss
Leeds United1 - 0Tottenham Hotspur
Home 34%Draw 28%Away 38%

AI picks: Leeds United/Tottenham Hotspur · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2/6Hit
Everton3 - 1Coventry City
Home 57%Draw 23%Away 20%

AI picks: Everton · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Newcastle United0 - 1Everton
Home 44%Draw 27%Away 29%

AI picks: Newcastle United/Everton · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Liverpool0 - 1Arsenal
Home 34%Draw 27%Away 40%

AI picks: Liverpool/Arsenal · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Aston Villa1 - 1Fulham
Home 48%Draw 26%Away 26%

AI picks: Aston Villa/Fulham · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Tottenham Hotspur2 - 0Crystal Palace
Home 58%Draw 23%Away 19%

AI picks: Tottenham Hotspur · 1:1 · Over 2.5

1/6Miss
Manchester City0 - 1Brighton
Home 56%Draw 23%Away 21%

AI picks: Manchester City · 1:1 · Over 2.5

1/6Miss
Hull City2 - 2Ipswich Town
Home 32%Draw 28%Away 40%

AI picks: Hull City/Ipswich Town · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Miss
Coventry City3 - 1Sunderland
Home 32%Draw 28%Away 40%

AI picks: Coventry City/Sunderland · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Brentford2 - 0Nottingham Forest
Home 45%Draw 26%Away 29%

AI picks: Brentford/Nottingham Forest · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 92 · 1X2 accuracy 47.8% · RPS 0.206

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=92
1X2 (match result)67.4%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High75.0%
Handicap 1X256.5%
Correct score (top 2)22.8%
Total goals (top 2)44.6%
Half-time / full-time29.3%
Over / under 2.552.2%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
2.70
Home wins
41.3%
Draws
27.2%
Away wins
31.5%
Over 2.5
46.7%
Both teams score
47.8%
Matches
92
HT / FT
40.7%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.5%
1
18.5%
2
28.3%
3
16.3%
4
15.2%
5
10.9%
6
1.1%
7+
3.3%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
29.3%
H/D
4.3%
H/A
1.1%
D/H
10.9%
D/D
15.2%
D/A
18.5%
A/H
1.1%
A/D
7.6%
A/A
12.0%