Premier League Β· Matchday 10
Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Sunderland a 26% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 48% for Chelsea; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.79 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Draw / Chelsea
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Sunderland
- 52%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Sunderland host Chelsea on matchday 10 of the Premier League, with both sides on eight days' rest. The hosts have taken one point from their last five (L, D, L, L, L), scoring four and conceding eleven, including a 3-5 loss at Manchester City. Chelsea have won three of their last five but also lost 0-3 at Brentford. Reported team news: Moises Caicedo is a doubt for Chelsea, while Sunderland are said to be without the suspended Alderete, plus Ballard, Diarra and Mundle. Sunderland won both recent meetings, 2-1 in May 2026 and 2-1 at Stamford Bridge in October 2025.
The published probabilities, the margin-free market consensus of 25 bookmakers, make Chelsea favourites at 48%, with a Sunderland win at 26% and a draw at 26%. Expected goals are 1.15β1.64 and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:2 (10%) and 0:1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 53% and both teams scoring at 56%, so a game with goals at both ends is slightly more likely than not.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:28 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Chelsea (48%); expected goals Sunderland 1.14 β 1.65 Chelsea.
- 2.79 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (30%).
- Last five: Sunderland LDLLL (0 wins), Chelsea WLWWL (3 wins).
- Last 2 meetings in the dataset: Sunderland 2 wins, 0 draws, Chelsea 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 25 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Sunderland
- 1.14
- Expected goals Β· Chelsea
- 1.65
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 23% / 40% / 37%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.8% | 2.4% | 96.8% |
| Home -2 | 3.2% | 7.2% | 89.6% |
| Home -1 | 10.4% | 15.3% | 74.3% |
| Home +1β | 51.6% | 22.4% | 26.0% |
| Home +2 | 74.0% | 15.0% | 11.0% |
| Home +3 | 89.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.2%
- 2:04.0%
- 2:16.6%
- 3:01.5%
- 3:12.5%
- 3:22.1%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.7%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:06.9%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.3%
- 0:28.3%
- 1:29.5%
- 0:34.6%
- 1:35.2%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:41.9%
- 1:42.2%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.6%
- 1:50.7%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.5% | 52.8% | 30.6% | 15.1% |
| Under | 22.5% | 47.2% | 69.4% | 84.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.7%
- Over, even
- 20.2%
- Under, odd
- 15.6%
- Under, even
- 31.6%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Sunderland
- 19.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Chelsea
- 31.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 31.9% | 36.4% | 20.8% | 10.8% |
| Chelsea | 19.2% | 31.7% | 26.1% | 22.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 14.7% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 9.3% | D/D 15.3% | D/A 15.7% |
| Away | A/H 1.6% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 30.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Sunderland 25.7% Β· Draw 26.0% Β· Chelsea 48.4% Β· 2.5+ 52.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.81 | 3.77 | 1.98 | 2.5: 1.81 / 2.09 | +0.5: 1.92 / 1.99 |
| 1xBet | 3.78 | 3.82 | 2.04 | 2.5: 1.87 / 2.08 | 0: 2.76 / 1.53 |
| BetAnything | 3.79 | 3.65 | 1.99 | 2.75: 2.01 / 1.83 | +0.5: 1.88 / 1.94 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.70 | 3.77 | 2.00 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.00 | +0.5: 1.85 / 2.00 |
| Coolbet | 3.94 | 3.72 | 2.01 | 2.5: 1.80 / 2.09 | +1: 1.47 / 2.80 |
| GTbets | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.02 | 2.5: 1.81 / 1.97 | +0.5: 1.82 / 1.96 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.68 | 3.72 | 1.99 | 2.5: 1.81 / 2.02 | +1: 1.44 / 2.84 |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 2.5: 1.78 / 1.98 | +0.5: 1.83 / 1.92 |
| Betsson | 3.73 | 3.67 | 1.95 | 2.5: 1.79 / 2.04 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.98 | 2.5: 1.74 / 1.94 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.75 | 3.70 | 1.93 | 2.5: 1.81 / 2.02 | β |
| Matchbook | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.06 | β | +0.5: 1.92 / 1.99 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.95 | 2.5: 1.78 / 2.02 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 3.50 | 3.45 | 1.85 | 2.5: 1.68 / 1.88 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 25 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the one genuinely fresh item here is the Moises Caicedo doubt, which strips Chelsea of their midfield anchor just as Lavia and Henderson are the only cover, and that is not obviously fully reflected in the consensus. Sunderland's own absences (Alderete suspended, Ballard, Diarra, Mundle) are older news and largely priced, and their form remains dire, so Chelsea stay clear favourites. The hosts' defensive fragility and Chelsea's unsettled back line keep a goals-heavy outcome slightly more likely than not.
- Sunderland Β· Omar Alderete is suspended after his sending-off at Coventry. (moderate Β· espn.com)
- Sunderland Β· Dan Ballard (hamstring), Habib Diarra (muscle, about 6 weeks) and Romaine Mundle (knee, out until the new year) are all unavailable. (moderate Β· livescore.com)
- Sunderland Β· Nordi Mukiele has missed two games with concussion but is expected to be available. Kevin Danso is likely to return to the XI. (minor Β· dave.sport)
- Sunderland Β· Sunderland are bottom with 5 points from 9 games and are seven league games without a win. Their manager has said the team is too exposed defensively. (moderate Β· premierleaguenewsnow.com)
- Chelsea Β· Moises Caicedo is a major doubt with a calf or discomfort problem. Alonso said a decision would come after the final training session. (major Β· sunderlandecho.com)
- Chelsea Β· Joao Pedro (hamstring), Maxence Lacroix (hamstring), Jorrel Hato (out for more weeks) and Reece James (knee, back around January) are out. Jamie Gittens is also listed as out or doubtful. (major Β· sunderlandecho.com)
- Chelsea Β· Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez (fractured jaw) is back in training and could return, but Mike Penders may stay in goal. Alonso will decide on Sunday. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Chelsea Β· Geovany Quenda is a late fitness doubt with a muscle problem. Jordan Henderson missed the Man United win through illness and is also a doubt. (minor Β· livescore.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Sunderland
Nicknamed the Black Cats, Sunderland are a historic north-east England club who returned to the Premier League in 2025β26 and finished 7th, earning a place in European competition.
- City
- Sunderland, England
- Stadium
- Stadium of Light
- Founded
- 1879
- Head coach
- RΓ©gis Le Bris
Chelsea
A west London club and long-time Premier League member, Chelsea finished 10th in 2025β26 and were FA Cup runners-up.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Stamford Bridge
- Founded
- 1905
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Sunderland
- L@ Coventry City1-3 Β· 10-31
- DLeeds United0-0 Β· 10-25
- L@ Bournemouth0-2 Β· 10-18
- LBrighton0-2 Β· 10-10
- L@ Manchester City3-5 Β· 09-20
Chelsea
- WManchester United2-0 Β· 10-31
- LTottenham Hotspur0-2 Β· 10-24
- W@ Everton2-0 Β· 10-17
- WBournemouth5-1 Β· 10-10
- L@ Brentford0-3 Β· 09-18
Sunderland 8 days rest Β· Chelsea 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-24Sunderland 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
- 2025-10-25Chelsea 1-2 SunderlandPremier League
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Premier League β