Premier League · Matchday 10
Fulham vs Newcastle United prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Fulham a 47% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 27% for Newcastle United; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.99 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Fulham / Newcastle United
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Newcastle United
- 53%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Fulham host Newcastle United in Premier League Matchweek 10. Fulham have taken two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five, while Newcastle have won two and lost three, including a 4-1 loss at Coventry City. Fulham have had seven days of rest to Newcastle's five. Newcastle are reported to be without Joelinton, Ramsey, Livramento and Jaouen, which could mean an inexperienced central midfield. Fulham won the latest meeting 2-0 in May 2026.
The published probabilities give Fulham a 47% chance of winning, with the draw at 26% and a Newcastle win at 27%. Expected goals are 1.72–1.25, with 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:0 (8%). These figures blend our model with the consensus of 25 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:34 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Fulham (47%); expected goals Fulham 1.72 – 1.27 Newcastle United.
- 2.99 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: Fulham DWWLD (2 wins), Newcastle United LWLLW (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Fulham 3 wins, 0 draws, Newcastle United 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Fulham
- 1.72
- Expected goals · Newcastle United
- 1.27
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 37% / 39% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Fulham | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 88.8% |
| Home -2 | 11.2% | 14.6% | 74.2% |
| Home -1≈ | 25.8% | 21.3% | 52.9% |
| Home +1 | 72.8% | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| Home +2 | 88.2% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
| Home +3 | 96.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.7%
- 2:07.5%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:04.3%
- 3:15.4%
- 3:23.4%
- 4:01.8%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.5%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.7%
- 0:06.0%
- 1:112.0%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.4%
- 0:24.0%
- 1:27.0%
- 0:31.7%
- 1:32.9%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.9% | 57.4% | 35.0% | 18.2% |
| Under | 19.1% | 42.6% | 65.0% | 81.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.8%
- Over, even
- 22.6%
- Under, odd
- 13.1%
- Under, even
- 29.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Fulham
- 28.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Newcastle United
- 17.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 17.9% | 30.8% | 26.5% | 24.8% |
| Newcastle United | 28.2% | 35.7% | 22.6% | 13.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.3% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 14.9% | D/D 14.5% | D/A 9.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 15.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Fulham
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 Oscar Bobb
- 24 Joshua King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 Gonzalo García
Newcastle United
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: M. Jaissle
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 33 D. Burn
- 3 L. Hall
- 14 Sean Steur
- 6 Nico González
- 23 J. Murphy
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 11 H. Barnes
- 10 W. Osula
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Fulham host a depleted and out-of-form Newcastle who are without Joelinton, Ramsey, Livramento and Jaouen, forcing an inexperienced central midfield. The market already favours Fulham at around 47%, and since most of the absences were known earlier in the week, we only nudge slightly further towards the hosts. A tight, modest-scoring game looks the most likely shape.
- Newcastle United · Joelinton is ruled out after a new injury in the 0-1 loss to Everton. Jaissle said the club still has to set a treatment plan and has no return date. (major · readnewcastle.com)
- Newcastle United · Jacob Ramsey is suspended for one match after a second yellow and a red card against Everton. He is back for the Arsenal game on 21 November. (major · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Newcastle United · Tino Livramento (knee) and goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen (hamstring) remain out. Livramento is more likely to return after the international break, so Amar Dedić is covering at right-back. (moderate · livescore.com)
- Newcastle United · Lewis Miley (glute/muscle, about 50%) and Matias Fernandez-Pardo (back from illness, about 75%) are doubts. Both have been training and are expected to be in the squad. (minor · sports.yahoo.com)
- Newcastle United · With Joelinton and Ramsey out, Newcastle are short in central midfield. Sean Steur may start alongside Nico Gonzalez and Joe Willock. (moderate · newcastleworld.com)
- Newcastle United · Newcastle have lost back-to-back games to Everton (Carabao Cup and league), and head coach Jaissle is under pressure. He insists he still has board backing. (moderate · livescore.com)
- Fulham · Fulham have no new injury concerns. Tom Cairney (knee) is the only absentee and is expected back after the international break. (minor · britbrief.co.uk)
- Fulham · Ryan Sessegnon is available again after a three-match ban and could compete with Antonee Robinson at left-back. Gonzalo Garcia is likely to keep the central striker role ahead of Rodrigo Muniz. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Fulham
Founded in 1879 and widely regarded as London's oldest professional club, Fulham play in the Premier League at the Thames-side Craven Cottage and have been coached by Álvaro Arbeloa since July 2026.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Craven Cottage
- Founded
- 1879
- Head coach
- Álvaro Arbeloa
Newcastle United
Known as the Magpies for their black-and-white stripes, Newcastle are a long-established Premier League club. They are in their tenth consecutive top-flight season and have been coached by Matthias Jaissle since Eddie Howe left in the summer of 2026.
- City
- Newcastle upon Tyne, England
- Stadium
- St James' Park
- Founded
- 1892
- Head coach
- Matthias Jaissle
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Fulham
- D@ Aston Villa1-1 · 10-31
- W@ Coventry City1-0 · 10-24
- WHull City1-0 · 10-17
- L@ Ipswich Town1-2 · 10-10
- DManchester United1-1 · 09-20
Newcastle United
- LEverton0-1 · 11-02
- W@ Crystal Palace2-0 · 10-25
- LAston Villa0-1 · 10-17
- L@ Coventry City1-4 · 10-12
- WHull City2-1 · 09-19
Fulham 7 days rest · Newcastle United 5 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-24Fulham 2-0 Newcastle UnitedPremier League
- 2025-10-25Newcastle United 2-1 FulhamPremier League
- 2025-02-01Newcastle United 1-2 FulhamPremier League
- 2024-09-21Fulham 3-1 Newcastle UnitedPremier League
- 2024-04-06Fulham 0-1 Newcastle UnitedPremier League
- 2023-12-16Newcastle United 3-0 FulhamPremier League
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