Premier League Β· Matchday 9

Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Liverpool
WWLWD
0 - 1
HT 0-1
Arsenal
WWWLW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Liverpool win 34%, draw 27%, Arsenal win 40%; the final score was 0:1.

Full time: Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Arsenal" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultArsenal39.8%most likely
Correct score0:16.7%#4 of 31
Total goals1 goals12.6%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.542.6%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeA/A24.1%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Liverpool / Arsenal
73%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
Liverpool
60%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:2
21%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
46%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
24%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
57%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Liverpool 34%, draw 27%, Arsenal 40% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.99 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
  • Last five: Liverpool WWLWD (3 wins), Arsenal WWWLW (4 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Liverpool 34%Draw 27%Arsenal 40%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Liverpool
1.42
Expected goals Β· Arsenal
1.57
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
28% / 39% / 32%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2LiverpoolDrawArsenal
Home -31.8%4.1%94.1%
Home -25.9%10.1%84.0%
Home -116.0%17.5%66.5%
Home +1β‰ˆ60.2%19.4%20.4%
Home +279.6%12.2%8.1%
Home +391.9%5.5%2.7%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Liverpool Β· Home
  • 1:06.0%
  • 2:05.1%
  • 2:18.0%
  • 3:02.4%
  • 3:13.8%
  • 3:23.0%
  • 4:00.9%
  • 4:11.3%
  • 4:21.1%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.4%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.1%
Draw
  • 0:06.2%
  • 1:112.4%
  • 2:26.3%
  • 3:31.5%
  • Other draw0.2%
Arsenal Β· Away
  • 0:16.7%
  • 0:26.2%
  • 1:28.8%
  • 0:33.2%
  • 1:34.6%
  • 2:33.3%
  • 0:41.3%
  • 1:41.8%
  • 2:41.3%
  • 0:50.4%
  • 1:50.6%
  • 2:50.4%
  • Other away win1.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.2%
1
12.6%
2
23.7%
3
22.4%
4
16.7%
5
10.0%
6
5.0%
7+
3.3%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over81.1%57.4%35.0%18.3%
Under18.9%42.6%65.0%81.7%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
34.8%
Over, even
22.6%
Under, odd
12.6%
Under, even
29.9%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
61.3%
Both teams to score: No
38.7%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Liverpool
20.9%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Arsenal
24.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Liverpool24.1%34.3%24.4%17.2%
Arsenal20.9%32.7%25.6%20.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
19.9%
H/D
5.9%
H/A
2.6%
Draw
D/H
11.4%
D/D
14.9%
D/A
13.1%
Away
A/H
2.3%
A/D
5.9%
A/A
24.1%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Liverpool

Liverpool, nicknamed the Reds, are one of England's most successful and widely supported clubs and finished 5th in the 2025–26 Premier League.

City
Liverpool, England
Stadium
Anfield
Founded
1892
Head coach
Andoni Iraola

Arsenal

A North London club nicknamed the Gunners, Arsenal play a possession-based, pressing style under Mikel Arteta and lead the 2026–27 Premier League with 24 points from 9 matches.

City
London, England
Stadium
Emirates Stadium
Founded
1886
Head coach
Mikel Arteta

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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