Premier League · Matchday 10
Arsenal vs Hull City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Arsenal a 84% chance of winning, 12% for a draw and 5% for Hull City; the single most likely score is 2:0 (14%) with 3.34 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Arsenal
- 84%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -2
- Arsenal
- 42%
- Correct score
- 2:0 / 3:0
- 27%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 42%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 61%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 65%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Arsenal host Hull City in Premier League round 10 on 7 November (15:00 UTC) after winning four of their last five, including 1-0 away at Liverpool and Nottingham Forest and 2-0 at home to Everton. The exception was a 0-3 loss at Brighton. Hull have no win in their last five (three draws, two defeats), and pre-match reports describe a depleted side that is winless in seven. Arsenal have had six days of rest and Hull seven. Reports also mention Saka's absence and a midweek European trip for the hosts.
Our published probabilities make Arsenal clear favourites: home win 82%, draw 12%, away win 5%. Expected goals are 2.67–0.54. The most likely scores are 2:0 (14%), 3:0 (13%) and 1:0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals is 62% and both teams scoring is 39%. These figures blend our model with the consensus of 25 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:34 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Arsenal (84%); expected goals Arsenal 2.79 – 0.55 Hull City.
- Goals look likely: 3.34 expected in total, 65% for over 2.5 and 40% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (61%).
- Last five: Arsenal WWWWL (4 wins), Hull City DDLDL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Arsenal
- 2.79
- Expected goals · Hull City
- 0.55
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 64% / 29% / 7%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Arsenal | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 23.1% | 18.6% | 58.3% |
| Home -2≈ | 41.7% | 22.4% | 36.0% |
| Home -1 | 64.0% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| Home +1 | 95.2% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| Home +2 | 99.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Home +3 | 99.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:09.8%
- 2:013.8%
- 2:17.6%
- 3:012.9%
- 3:17.0%
- 3:21.9%
- 4:09.0%
- 4:14.9%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:05.0%
- 5:12.7%
- 5:20.7%
- Other home win6.8%
- 0:03.6%
- 1:15.5%
- 2:22.1%
- 3:30.4%
- Other draw0.0%
- 0:11.9%
- 0:20.5%
- 1:21.5%
- 0:30.1%
- 1:30.3%
- 2:30.4%
- 0:40.0%
- 1:40.0%
- 2:40.1%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84.7% | 64.8% | 42.8% | 24.4% |
| Under | 15.3% | 35.2% | 57.2% | 75.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.1%
- Over, even
- 26.7%
- Under, odd
- 11.7%
- Under, even
- 23.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 39.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 60.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Arsenal
- 57.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Hull City
- 6.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 6.1% | 17.1% | 23.9% | 52.8% |
| Hull City | 57.9% | 31.7% | 8.7% | 1.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 61.2% | H/D 2.2% | H/A 0.3% |
| Draw | D/H 19.9% | D/D 7.3% | D/A 2.0% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 2.2% | A/A 2.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Arsenal
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: Mikel Arteta
- 1 David Raya
- 12 J. Timber
- 15 E. Konsa
- 6 Gabriel Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 39 Bruno Guimarães
- 41 D. Rice
- 20 N. Madueke
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Hull City
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 5-3-2 · Coach: S. Jakirović
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 S. Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 21 E. Stroud
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 29 L. Gourna-Douath
- 27 R. Slater
- 50 M. Cho
- 9 O. McBurnie
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Arsenal are overwhelming favourites against a depleted, winless-in-seven Hull side that has managed one victory in its last 22 away league games. Saka's absence and a midweek European trip trim the home edge only marginally, as most of this news is already reflected in the odds. We expect an Arsenal win, with a slightly lower likelihood of three-plus goals than the market implies given Arsenal's recent string of narrow, low-scoring wins.
- Arsenal · Bukayo Saka (quad/muscle injury) is out. Arteta said the recovery is measured in weeks and gave no return date. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- Arsenal · Ezri Konsa was taken off as a precaution at Slavia Prague in midweek. Arteta says he is fine and available, although Sports Mole still listed him as doubtful. (minor · sports.yahoo.com)
- Arsenal · William Saliba was an unused substitute at Slavia Prague after four months out with a back injury. He is in contention for a first appearance this season and could replace Konsa or Mosquera in defence. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Arsenal · Sports Mole and Telecom Asia list Max Dowman as suspended. Arsenal's own preview and other outlets name only Saka as absent, so this is unconfirmed. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Arsenal · Arsenal top the league on 24 points and a win would put them six clear. It is their last game before the November international break, and Arteta wants them to attack from the start. (moderate · arsenal.com)
- Arsenal · Arsenal played Slavia Prague in the Champions League in midweek, so some rotation is possible. Predicted XIs still show a strong side. (minor · 3addedminutes.com)
- Hull City · Matt Crooks is suspended after his fifth yellow card of the season, against Ipswich. (moderate · arsenal.com)
- Hull City · Hull are missing Gourna-Douath (calf), Hughes, Gyabi, Ansah, Targett (ankle) and Matazo (ACL). Morita (groin) is being assessed, and backup goalkeeper Butland is fit again. (moderate · arsenal.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Arsenal
A North London club nicknamed the Gunners, Arsenal play a possession-based, pressing style under Mikel Arteta and lead the 2026–27 Premier League with 24 points from 9 matches.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Emirates Stadium
- Founded
- 1886
- Head coach
- Mikel Arteta
Hull City
Nicknamed the Tigers and owned by Acun Medya, Hull City play in the 2026–27 Premier League after finishing fifth in the Championship last season, under head coach Sergej Jakirović.
- City
- Kingston upon Hull, England
- Stadium
- MKM Stadium
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Sergej Jakirović
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Arsenal
- W@ Liverpool1-0 · 11-01
- WEverton2-0 · 10-24
- W@ Nottingham Forest1-0 · 10-18
- WLeeds United2-1 · 10-10
- L@ Brighton0-3 · 09-19
Hull City
- DIpswich Town2-2 · 10-31
- DBrentford1-1 · 10-25
- L@ Fulham0-1 · 10-17
- DEverton2-2 · 10-11
- L@ Newcastle United1-2 · 09-19
Arsenal 6 days rest · Hull City 7 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
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