Premier League Β· Matchday 9
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Brentford win 45%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest win 29%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Brentford" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Brentford | 44.9% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 7.2% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 23.9% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 43.8% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 27.6% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Brentford / Nottingham Forest
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Nottingham Forest
- 55%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 56%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Brentford (45%); expected goals Brentford 1.65 β 1.29 Nottingham Forest.
- 2.93 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (28%).
- Last five: Brentford DLDWD (1 wins), Nottingham Forest DLLLW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Brentford
- 1.65
- Expected goals Β· Nottingham Forest
- 1.29
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 40% / 25%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Brentford | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.5% | 6.6% | 90.0% |
| Home -2 | 10.0% | 13.9% | 76.1% |
| Home -1β | 23.9% | 21.0% | 55.1% |
| Home +1 | 71.1% | 16.2% | 12.8% |
| Home +2 | 87.2% | 8.5% | 4.3% |
| Home +3 | 95.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.8%
- 2:07.2%
- 2:19.3%
- 3:04.0%
- 3:15.1%
- 3:23.3%
- 4:01.6%
- 4:12.1%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.5%
- 0:06.3%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.9%
- 0:24.4%
- 1:27.2%
- 0:31.9%
- 1:33.1%
- 2:32.6%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.0% | 56.2% | 33.8% | 17.4% |
| Under | 20.0% | 43.8% | 66.2% | 82.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.2%
- Over, even
- 21.9%
- Under, odd
- 13.7%
- Under, even
- 30.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Brentford
- 27.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Nottingham Forest
- 19.3%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 19.3% | 31.7% | 26.1% | 22.9% |
| Nottingham Forest | 27.6% | 35.5% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 27.6% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 14.6% | D/D 14.9% | D/A 10.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 16.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Brentford
Nicknamed the Bees, this west London club is known for its data-driven recruitment and well-organised, set-piece-strong play.
- City
- London (Brentford), England
- Stadium
- Gtech Community Stadium
- Founded
- 1889
- Head coach
- Keith Andrews
Nottingham Forest
Two-time European Cup winners from the East Midlands, Forest finished 16th in the 2025-26 Premier League and were in the relegation zone in early November 2026 under new head coach Oliver Glasner.
- City
- Nottingham, England
- Stadium
- The City Ground
- Founded
- 1865
- Head coach
- Oliver Glasner
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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