Premier League Β· Matchday 10
Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Leeds United win 34%, draw 28%, Tottenham Hotspur win 38%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Leeds United 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Tottenham Hotspur" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Leeds United | 34.0% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 7.9% | #6 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 16.3% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 12.0% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Leeds United / Tottenham Hotspur
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Leeds United
- 62%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 50%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Leeds United host Tottenham Hotspur at Elland Road in Premier League round 10, with both sides on seven days' rest. Leeds are winless in five (two defeats, three draws) and have scored just twice in that run. Stach and Okafor may be unavailable. Tottenham arrive on a three-game winning run, with Bentancur and Adarabioyo back. Their last two meetings were a 1-1 draw in May and a 2-1 Spurs win in October 2025.
The probabilities give Tottenham a slight edge at 37%, with Leeds on 34% and the draw at 28%. Expected goals are 1.29β1.35. The most likely scores are 1:1 (14%), 0:1 (9%) and 1:2 (8%). Over 2.5 goals is 49%, and both teams scoring is 55%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:28 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Leeds United 34%, draw 28%, Tottenham Hotspur 38% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.66 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 50%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (22%).
- Last five: Leeds United LDDLD (0 wins), Tottenham Hotspur WWWDL (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 25 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Leeds United
- 1.29
- Expected goals Β· Tottenham Hotspur
- 1.37
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 28% / 42% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Leeds United | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.5% | 3.8% | 94.7% |
| Home -2 | 5.3% | 10.1% | 84.6% |
| Home -1 | 15.4% | 18.6% | 66.0% |
| Home +1β | 62.4% | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| Home +2 | 82.2% | 11.4% | 6.5% |
| Home +3 | 93.5% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.9%
- 2:05.8%
- 2:18.0%
- 3:02.5%
- 3:13.4%
- 3:22.3%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.1%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:08.2%
- 1:113.5%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.4%
- 0:26.6%
- 1:28.5%
- 0:33.0%
- 1:33.9%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.3%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75.5% | 49.6% | 27.6% | 13.1% |
| Under | 24.5% | 50.4% | 72.4% | 86.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.1%
- Over, even
- 18.5%
- Under, odd
- 16.3%
- Under, even
- 34.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Leeds United
- 25.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Tottenham Hotspur
- 27.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 27.5% | 35.5% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 25.5% | 34.8% | 23.8% | 15.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 20.0% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 12.0% | D/D 17.1% | D/A 13.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 22.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Tottenham arrive at Elland Road on a three-game winning run with Bentancur and Adarabioyo back, while Leeds are winless in five, have scored just twice in that spell and may be without Stach and Okafor. The team news is broadly in line with what bookmakers have already priced, so we stay close to the consensus with a slight tilt towards the visitors and a marginally lower chance of over 2.5 goals given Leeds' blunt attack.
- Leeds United Β· Joe Rodon is back in full team training after a hamstring injury and is in contention to return against his former club. (moderate Β· leedsunited.com)
- Leeds United Β· Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the club's leading scorer, is a slight doubt with a foot problem but is expected to be fit. (major Β· leedsunited.com)
- Leeds United Β· Anton Stach (foot/broken toe) has not trained this week and is a major doubt; Noah Okafor (adductor/groin) is also a major doubt. (moderate Β· livescore.com)
- Leeds United Β· Mateo Joseph remains out with an ACL injury. (minor Β· telecomasia.net)
- Leeds United Β· Leeds are winless in five league games, scored only two goals in that spell, and had no shot on target at Bournemouth. Farke is under some scrutiny. (moderate Β· lastwordonsports.com)
- Leeds United Β· Leeds have not won a Premier League match that kicked off before 3pm since August 2022, a run of 21 matches. (minor Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- Tottenham Hotspur Β· Tosin Adarabioyo is available again after a calf injury and rejoined the group on Thursday. Rodrigo Bentancur is back from a three-game suspension. (moderate Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- Tottenham Hotspur Β· Mykhailo Mudryk, Savio and Lucas Bergvall are ruled out. De Zerbi said Mudryk and Savio will not return until after the international break, and Bergvall is not expected back until January. (moderate Β· sports.yahoo.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Leeds United
Leeds United are a historic Yorkshire club, nicknamed the Whites, who play at Elland Road in the Premier League.
- City
- Leeds, England
- Stadium
- Elland Road
- Founded
- 1919
- Head coach
- Daniel Farke
Tottenham Hotspur
A North London club and long-time Premier League side that avoided relegation on the final day of 2025β26.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- Founded
- 1882
- Head coach
- Roberto De Zerbi
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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