Premier League · Matchday 9
Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Aston Villa win 48%, draw 26%, Fulham win 26%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Aston Villa" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 25.6% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.1% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 23.9% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 43.9% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/D | 5.5% | #7 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Aston Villa / Fulham
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Fulham
- 52%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 56%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Aston Villa (48%); expected goals Aston Villa 1.72 – 1.21 Fulham.
- 2.93 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Aston Villa WWDWL (3 wins), Fulham WWLDD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Aston Villa
- 1.72
- Expected goals · Fulham
- 1.21
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 37% / 39% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.2% | 7.4% | 88.4% |
| Home -2 | 11.6% | 15.0% | 73.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 26.5% | 21.7% | 51.7% |
| Home +1 | 73.9% | 15.1% | 11.0% |
| Home +2 | 89.0% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| Home +3 | 96.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.3%
- 2:07.9%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:04.5%
- 3:15.5%
- 3:23.3%
- 4:01.9%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.7%
- 0:06.3%
- 1:112.1%
- 2:25.8%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.6%
- 0:23.9%
- 1:26.7%
- 0:31.6%
- 1:32.7%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.8%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.9% | 56.1% | 33.7% | 17.3% |
| Under | 20.1% | 43.9% | 66.3% | 82.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.2%
- Over, even
- 21.9%
- Under, odd
- 13.8%
- Under, even
- 30.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 58.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 41.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Aston Villa
- 29.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Fulham
- 18.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 18.0% | 30.8% | 26.5% | 24.7% |
| Fulham | 29.8% | 36.1% | 21.9% | 12.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 30.0% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 15.5% | D/D 14.7% | D/A 9.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 15.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Aston Villa
A historic Birmingham club and former European champion, Aston Villa have been rebuilt under Unai Emery into a Premier League top-four contender that won the 2025–26 Europa League.
- City
- Birmingham, England
- Stadium
- Villa Park
- Founded
- 1874
- Head coach
- Unai Emery
Fulham
Founded in 1879 and widely regarded as London's oldest professional club, Fulham play in the Premier League at the Thames-side Craven Cottage and have been coached by Álvaro Arbeloa since July 2026.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Craven Cottage
- Founded
- 1879
- Head coach
- Álvaro Arbeloa
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: Premier League →