Premier League · Matchday 10

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Nottingham Forest

LDLLL

Manchester City

LLWWW

Kick-off (UTC): Sat, Nov 7, 05:30 PM UTC · Model data as of 2026-11-07

Our forecast gives Nottingham Forest a 20% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 57% for Manchester City; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.04 total goals expected.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium

1X2 (match result): Manchester City; 57%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1: Nottingham Forest; 43%
Correct score: 1:1 / 1:2; 21%
Total goals: 2 / 3 goals; 45%
Half-time / full-time: A/A; 37%
Over / under 2.5: Over; 59%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)

Nottingham Forest host Manchester City in Premier League round 10, with both sides on seven days' rest. Forest are 19th, winless in their last five (one draw, four defeats), and have not won a league game at home this season. They have not scored at the City Ground for over 500 minutes. City have lost their last two league games, to Brighton and Aston Villa, after wins over Ipswich, Liverpool and Sunderland. Semenyo is absent and O'Reilly is a possible absentee.

Our published probabilities, a blend of our model and the consensus of 25 bookmakers, make City favourites at 55%, with the draw at 24% and a Forest win at 21%. Expected goals are 1.12 for Forest and 1.90 for City. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (11%), 1:2 (10%) and 0:2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is rated at 58%, as is both teams scoring.

Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:41 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.

Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.

Probability data read (template)

The published probabilities favour Manchester City (57%); expected goals Nottingham Forest 1.09 – 1.95 Manchester City.
Goals look likely: 3.04 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (37%).
Last five: Nottingham Forest LDLLL (0 wins), Manchester City LLWWW (3 wins).
Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Nottingham Forest 1 wins, 1 draws, Manchester City 4 wins.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Nottingham Forest 20%Draw 23%Manchester City 57%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 25 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Nottingham Forest: 1.09
Expected goals · Manchester City: 1.95
Most likely score: 1:1 (11%)
Half-time result: 19% / 37% / 43%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2	Nottingham Forest	Draw	Manchester City
Home -3	0.5%	1.7%	97.8%
Home -2	2.2%	5.5%	92.3%
Home -1	7.7%	12.3%	80.0%
Home +1≈	43.3%	22.7%	34.0%
Home +2	66.0%	17.5%	16.5%
Home +3	83.5%	9.8%	6.6%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Nottingham Forest · Home

1:04.4%
2:02.8%
2:15.5%
3:01.0%
3:12.0%
3:22.0%
4:00.3%
4:10.5%
4:20.5%
5:00.1%
5:10.1%
5:20.1%
Other home win0.6%

Draw

0:05.5%
1:110.9%
2:25.4%
3:31.3%
Other draw0.2%

Manchester City · Away

0:18.6%
0:29.1%
1:29.9%
0:35.9%
1:36.5%
2:33.5%
0:42.9%
1:43.2%
2:41.7%
0:51.1%
1:51.2%
2:50.7%
Other away win2.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

5.5%

13.0%

22.8%

22.4%

17.0%

10.4%

5.3%

3.6%

Over / under	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5
Over	81.5%	58.7%	36.3%	19.2%
Under	18.5%	41.3%	63.7%	80.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd: 35.4%
Over, even: 23.3%
Under, odd: 13.0%
Under, even: 28.3%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes: 57.7%
Both teams to score: No: 42.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Nottingham Forest: 14.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Manchester City: 33.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team	0	1	2	3+
Nottingham Forest	33.6%	36.6%	20.0%	9.8%
Manchester City	14.2%	27.7%	27.1%	31.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →	Home	Draw	Away
Home	H/H 11.3%	H/D 5.0%	H/A 3.1%
Draw	D/H 7.3%	D/D 13.2%	D/A 17.0%
Away	A/H 1.4%	A/D 5.0%	A/A 36.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Bookmaker odds (EU region)

Market consensus (margin removed): Nottingham Forest 20.0% · Draw 23.3% · Manchester City 56.7% · 2.5+ 58.7%

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Over/Under	Asian handicap (home)
Pinnacle	5.02	4.15	1.70	3: 2.07 / 1.85	+0.75: 2.02 / 1.91
1xBet	4.57	4.26	1.78	2.5: 1.70 / 2.34	+1.5: 1.45 / 3.06
BetAnything	4.80	4.05	1.69	3: 2.02 / 1.82	+0.5: 2.24 / 1.69
BetOnline.ag	4.90	4.15	1.69	3: 2.06 / 1.78	+0.5: 2.26 / 1.69
Coolbet	5.20	4.25	1.68	3: 2.00 / 1.87	+1: 1.74 / 2.18
GTbets	4.57	4.11	1.70	2.5: 1.62 / 2.26	+0.5: 2.14 / 1.69
Marathon Bet	4.50	4.20	1.75	2.5: 1.65 / 2.27	+1: 1.65 / 2.24
MyBookie.ag	4.60	4.00	1.69	2.5: 1.62 / 2.21	+0.5: 2.13 / 1.67
Betsson	4.74	3.98	1.70	2.5: 1.64 / 2.30	–
Codere (IT)	4.70	3.95	1.71	2.5: 1.60 / 2.16	–
LeoVegas (SE)	4.90	4.20	1.63	2.5: 1.60 / 2.38	–
Matchbook	5.20	4.20	1.74	–	+0.75: 2.00 / 1.91
Nordic Bet	4.75	4.00	1.70	2.5: 1.62 / 2.28	–
PMU (FR)	4.60	3.90	1.57	2.5: 1.49 / 2.20	–

Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC

Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 25 in the consensus.

Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.

Claude pre-match intel

Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.

Manchester City remain clear favourites (around 55%) at a Forest side that sits 19th, has no home league win and hasn't scored at the City Ground for over 500 minutes. City's two straight league defeats, a midweek Champions League trip and absences for Semenyo and possibly O'Reilly add a little uncertainty, so we nudge the draw up fractionally. Forest's blunt attack makes us slightly less convinced than the market that this clears 2.5 goals, though City's own scoring record keeps it the likelier outcome.

Nottingham Forest · Nicolas Dominguez suffered a setback in his recovery and is out for up to eight weeks, so he is ruled out. (moderate · hayters.com)
Nottingham Forest · Igor Jesus has trained fully after a calf problem and is in contention. Sports Mole still lists him as doubtful, and one outlet lists him as out. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Nottingham Forest · Nicolo Savona (knee) is back in team training after a long layoff but is listed as out for this match. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
Nottingham Forest · Daniel Munoz has been managing a foot issue, which makes the right wing-back slot uncertain. Dan Ndoye was also an injury doubt the week before. (minor · dave.sport)
Nottingham Forest · Forest are 19th with 6 points and have had one league win and no home league win. After a 0-2 defeat at Brentford, Glasner promised personnel changes. Forest have not scored at the City Ground for 506 minutes, including the Carabao Cup loss (moderate · football365.com)
Manchester City · Antoine Semenyo (knee/leg) is out. Yahoo Sports says he will not return for at least another month. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Manchester City · Nico O'Reilly (back/knee) is a doubt. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Manchester City · City have lost two straight league games (Aston Villa, Brighton) and dropped to 2nd. Their 24-game league scoring run ended against Brighton. They won 3-2 at RB Leipzig in the Champions League in midweek, with Haaland scoring the 78th-minut (moderate · football365.com)

Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.

Club profiles