Club football · AI probability model

La Liga predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

111 La Liga matches played this season, 2.98 goals per game; Barcelona top the model's strength ranking. The 8 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
EspanyolvsDeportivo La Coruña
Home 39%Draw 29%Away 32%
Most likely score
1:1 14%
Expected total goals
2.55
Over / under 2.5
Over 47%

AI picks: Espanyol/Deportivo La Coruña · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
OsasunavsAthletic Club
Home 25%Draw 28%Away 47%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.44
Over / under 2.5
Over 44%

AI picks: Draw/Athletic Club · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
ValenciavsReal Madrid
Home 9%Draw 15%Away 76%
Most likely score
0:2 12%
Expected total goals
3.36
Over / under 2.5
Over 65%

AI picks: Real Madrid · 0:2 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
ElchevsReal Betis
Home 28%Draw 25%Away 47%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.97
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: Elche/Real Betis · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Real SociedadvsRayo Vallecano
Home 55%Draw 23%Away 22%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.12
Over / under 2.5
Over 60%

AI picks: Real Sociedad · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Celta VigovsLevante
Home 51%Draw 26%Away 23%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.68
Over / under 2.5
Over 50%

AI picks: Celta Vigo · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
VillarrealvsGetafe
Home 66%Draw 21%Away 13%
Most likely score
2:0 12%
Expected total goals
2.80
Over / under 2.5
Over 53%

AI picks: Villarreal · 2:0 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Atlético MadridvsBarcelona
Home 25%Draw 22%Away 53%
Most likely score
1:2 9%
Expected total goals
3.73
Over / under 2.5
Over 72%

AI picks: Barcelona · 1:2 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Barcelona1110014612+3430WLWWW
2Atlético Madrid11911228+1428WWWWW
3Real Madrid119022810+1827WWWWL
4Real Betis117221815+323WDLWD
5Real Sociedad116142020019LWWWW
6Sevilla125341719-218DLWLD
7Athletic Club104331410+415WWLDD
8Deportivo La Coruña113531514+114WLDLD
9Racing Santander124261730-1314WLWLD
10Alavés123451517-213DLDLL
11Villarreal113351515012LWDLW
12Celta Vigo112631010012LDWDW
13Rayo Vallecano103341520-512WLDDW
14Getafe11335816-812WLDLW
15Espanyol113261314-111WLLDL
16Osasuna113261122-1111LLWLD
17Elche112451418-410LWDDW
18Levante112451621-510LLWDD
19Valencia11236817-99WLDDL
20Málaga12057923-145LLDLD

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Barcelona+1.772.030.792.90 / 1.13
2Real Madrid+1.421.680.682.40 / 0.98
3Atlético Madrid+0.811.290.721.85 / 1.04
4Villarreal+0.281.140.951.63 / 1.36
5Athletic Club+0.261.010.831.45 / 1.19
6Real Betis+0.191.100.971.58 / 1.38
7Real Sociedad+0.071.131.091.62 / 1.55
8Sevilla-0.120.910.991.30 / 1.42
9Celta Vigo-0.140.790.891.13 / 1.27
10Rayo Vallecano-0.200.921.051.31 / 1.51
11Alavés-0.240.820.991.18 / 1.42
12Espanyol-0.280.821.021.18 / 1.46
13Valencia-0.330.771.001.11 / 1.44
14Deportivo La Coruña-0.350.801.051.15 / 1.50
15Elche-0.390.841.111.21 / 1.59
16Levante-0.440.881.191.26 / 1.71
17Getafe-0.450.650.960.93 / 1.38
18Osasuna-0.470.781.101.11 / 1.58
19Racing Santander-0.620.931.361.33 / 1.95
20Málaga-0.760.711.241.01 / 1.78

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

4/6Miss
Málaga1 - 2Racing Santander
Home 39%Draw 27%Away 34%

AI picks: Málaga/Racing Santander · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Sevilla0 - 0Alavés
Home 48%Draw 27%Away 25%

AI picks: Sevilla/Draw · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2/6Hit
Deportivo La Coruña2 - 1Osasuna
Home 45%Draw 29%Away 25%

AI picks: Deportivo La Coruña/Draw · 1:1 · Under 2.5

5/6Hit
Athletic Club2 - 1Real Sociedad
Home 49%Draw 26%Away 26%

AI picks: Athletic Club/Draw · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Elche0 - 1Valencia
Home 42%Draw 28%Away 30%

AI picks: Elche/Valencia · 1:1 · Over 2.5

5/6Hit
Racing Santander0 - 3Real Madrid
Home 9%Draw 12%Away 79%

AI picks: Real Madrid · 0:3 · Over 2.5

1/6Miss
Getafe3 - 1Sevilla
Home 28%Draw 32%Away 41%

AI picks: Draw/Sevilla · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Hit
Barcelona6 - 1Alavés
Home 86%Draw 9%Away 5%

AI picks: Barcelona · 3:0 · Over 2.5

6/6Hit
Real Betis2 - 1Málaga
Home 72%Draw 17%Away 11%

AI picks: Real Betis · 2:0 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Rayo Vallecano3 - 0Celta Vigo
Home 39%Draw 30%Away 31%

AI picks: Rayo Vallecano/Celta Vigo · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 111 · 1X2 accuracy 55.9% · RPS 0.181

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=111
1X2 (match result)74.8%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High84.9%
Handicap 1X253.1%
Correct score (top 2)26.1%
Total goals (top 2)43.2%
Half-time / full-time35.1%
Over / under 2.568.5%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
2.98
Home wins
45.1%
Draws
25.2%
Away wins
29.7%
Over 2.5
57.7%
Both teams score
57.7%
Matches
111
HT / FT
44.1%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
9.0%
1
14.4%
2
18.9%
3
23.4%
4
13.5%
5
11.7%
6
1.8%
7+
7.2%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
25.2%
H/D
3.6%
H/A
2.7%
D/H
17.1%
D/D
17.1%
D/A
9.9%
A/H
2.7%
A/D
4.5%
A/A
17.1%