La Liga · Matchday 11
Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Deportivo La Coruña win 45%, draw 29%, Osasuna win 25%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Deportivo La Coruña 2-1 Osasuna. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Deportivo La Coruña" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Deportivo La Coruña | 45.3% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 8.8% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 20.6% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 2.1% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Deportivo La Coruña / Draw
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Osasuna
- 55%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 26%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 58%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Deportivo La Coruña (45%); expected goals Deportivo La Coruña 1.38 – 0.97 Osasuna.
- A tight game is the base case: 2.35 goals expected, 58% for under 2.5.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (27%).
- Last five: Deportivo La Coruña LDLDL (0 wins), Osasuna LWLDL (1 wins).
- A 29% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Deportivo La Coruña
- 1.38
- Expected goals · Osasuna
- 0.97
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 34% / 45% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Deportivo La Coruña | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 91.7% |
| Home -2 | 8.3% | 13.9% | 77.8% |
| Home -1≈ | 22.2% | 23.1% | 54.7% |
| Home +1 | 74.7% | 15.9% | 9.4% |
| Home +2 | 90.6% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Home +3 | 97.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:012.1%
- 2:09.1%
- 2:18.8%
- 3:04.2%
- 3:14.1%
- 3:22.0%
- 4:01.5%
- 4:11.4%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:010.6%
- 1:113.8%
- 2:24.3%
- 3:30.6%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.1%
- 0:24.5%
- 1:26.2%
- 0:31.4%
- 1:32.0%
- 2:31.4%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69.2% | 41.8% | 21.2% | 9.0% |
| Under | 30.8% | 58.2% | 78.8% | 91.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 27.2%
- Over, even
- 14.6%
- Under, odd
- 20.2%
- Under, even
- 38.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 47.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 52.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Deportivo La Coruña
- 37.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Osasuna
- 25.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | 25.1% | 34.7% | 24.0% | 16.3% |
| Osasuna | 37.9% | 36.8% | 17.8% | 7.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 27.4% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 15.9% | D/D 19.1% | D/A 9.8% |
| Away | A/H 2.1% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 14.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Deportivo La Coruña
A Galician club and 1999–2000 La Liga champions, Deportivo are back in the top flight in 2026–27 after eight seasons away, and they play their home games at Riazor.
- City
- A Coruña, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio Abanca-Riazor
- Founded
- 1906
- Head coach
- Antonio Hidalgo
Osasuna
Pamplona-based club nicknamed Los Rojillos, known for a hard-working, physical style and the atmosphere at El Sadar, who narrowly avoided relegation from La Liga last season.
- City
- Pamplona, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio El Sadar
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Jagoba Arrasate
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: La Liga →