La Liga Β· Matchday 12
Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Osasuna a 25% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 47% for Athletic Club; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.44 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Draw / Athletic Club
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Osasuna
- 53%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 25%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 56%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Osasuna host Athletic Club in Round 12 of La Liga on 7 November (kick-off 17:30 UTC). Osasuna have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, including a 5-2 defeat at Real Betis. Athletic have two wins, two draws and one loss, among them a 4-0 home win over Getafe. Osasuna have had five days of rest, Athletic six. Of the last four meetings Athletic won two and two were drawn, the latest a 1-0 Athletic win in April.
The published probabilities, the market consensus of 21 bookmakers, make Athletic favourites at 47%, with the draw at 28% and an Osasuna win at 25%. Expected goals range from 0.99 to 1.45. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 0:1 (12%) and 0:0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 44% and both teams scoring at 49%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 04:22 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Athletic Club (47%); expected goals Osasuna 0.99 β 1.45 Athletic Club.
- 2.44 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 44%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Osasuna LLWLD (1 wins), Athletic Club WWLDD (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Osasuna 0 wins, 3 draws, Athletic Club 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Osasuna
- 0.99
- Expected goals Β· Athletic Club
- 1.45
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 21% / 44% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Osasuna | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.6% | 2.0% | 97.4% |
| Home -2 | 2.6% | 6.7% | 90.7% |
| Home -1 | 9.3% | 15.7% | 75.0% |
| Home +1β | 53.1% | 23.3% | 23.6% |
| Home +2 | 76.4% | 14.4% | 9.2% |
| Home +3 | 90.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.8%
- 2:04.3%
- 2:16.2%
- 3:01.4%
- 3:12.1%
- 3:21.5%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.3%
- 0:09.5%
- 1:113.3%
- 2:24.5%
- 3:30.7%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:111.8%
- 0:29.1%
- 1:29.1%
- 0:34.4%
- 1:34.4%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:41.6%
- 1:41.6%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.5%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70.9% | 44.2% | 23.0% | 10.1% |
| Under | 29.1% | 55.8% | 77.0% | 89.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 28.4%
- Over, even
- 15.8%
- Under, odd
- 19.5%
- Under, even
- 36.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 49.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 51.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Osasuna
- 23.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Athletic Club
- 37.1%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 37.1% | 36.8% | 18.2% | 7.9% |
| Athletic Club | 23.4% | 34.0% | 24.7% | 17.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 14.0% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 9.6% | D/D 18.0% | D/A 16.3% |
| Away | A/H 1.4% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 28.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Osasuna 25.0% Β· Draw 28.2% Β· Athletic Club 46.9% Β· 2.5+ 44.2%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.95 | 3.46 | 2.07 | 2.25: 1.91 / 2.00 | +0.5: 1.86 / 2.07 |
| 1xBet | 3.85 | 3.56 | 2.11 | 2.5: 2.17 / 1.81 | 0: 2.77 / 1.53 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.84 | 3.48 | 2.05 | 2.5: 2.14 / 1.76 | +0.5: 1.84 / 2.05 |
| Coolbet | 3.90 | 3.35 | 2.10 | 2.5: 2.17 / 1.75 | +1: 1.39 / 3.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.75 | 3.46 | 2.05 | 2.5: 2.10 / 1.75 | 0: 2.69 / 1.48 |
| Matchbook | 4.00 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.5: 2.24 / 1.73 | +0.5: 1.86 / 2.04 |
| Betsson | 3.90 | 3.35 | 2.00 | 2.5: 2.18 / 1.70 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.09 | 2.5: 2.04 / 1.67 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.97 | 2.5: 2.20 / 1.64 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 3.75 | 3.35 | 2.02 | 2.5: 2.15 / 1.68 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.93 | 2.5: 2.08 / 1.56 | β |
| Tipico | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.97 | 2.5: 2.05 / 1.72 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.00 | 3.40 | 2.06 | 2.5: 2.20 / 1.64 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.00 | 3.40 | 2.08 | 2.5: 2.23 / 1.66 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Club profiles
Osasuna
Pamplona-based club nicknamed Los Rojillos, known for a hard-working, physical style and the atmosphere at El Sadar, who narrowly avoided relegation from La Liga last season.
- City
- Pamplona, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio El Sadar
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Jagoba Arrasate
Athletic Club
A Basque club known for its policy of fielding mainly Basque-born or Basque-trained players, it has never been relegated from La Liga and finished 12th in 2025β26.
- City
- Bilbao, Spain
- Stadium
- San MamΓ©s
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- Edin TerziΔ
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Osasuna
- L@ Deportivo La CoruΓ±a1-2 Β· 11-02
- L@ Sevilla0-2 Β· 10-26
- WRacing Santander2-0 Β· 10-18
- L@ Real Betis2-5 Β· 10-11
- DRayo Vallecano1-1 Β· 09-19
Athletic Club
- WReal Sociedad2-1 Β· 11-01
- WGetafe4-0 Β· 10-25
- L@ Levante1-3 Β· 10-21
- D@ Valencia0-0 Β· 10-17
- DAlavΓ©s0-0 Β· 09-19
Osasuna 5 days rest Β· Athletic Club 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-21Athletic Club 1-0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 2026-01-03Osasuna 1-1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 2025-03-30Athletic Club 0-0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 2024-12-21Osasuna 1-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 2024-05-11Athletic Club 2-2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 2023-08-19Osasuna 0-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: La Liga β