La Liga · Matchday 12
Sevilla vs Alavés prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sevilla win 48%, draw 27%, Alavés win 25%; the final score was 0:0.
Full time: Sevilla 0-0 Alavés. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Sevilla" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 27.2% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:0 | 8.2% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 0 goals | 8.2% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 16.6% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Sevilla / Draw
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Alavés
- 52%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 23%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 51%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Sevilla (48%); expected goals Sevilla 1.57 – 1.07 Alavés.
- 2.64 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 49%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Sevilla LWLDL (1 wins), Alavés LDLLD (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Sevilla
- 1.57
- Expected goals · Alavés
- 1.07
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 42% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sevilla | Draw | Alavés |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 89.6% |
| Home -2 | 10.4% | 14.9% | 74.7% |
| Home -1≈ | 25.3% | 22.7% | 52.0% |
| Home +1 | 75.2% | 15.1% | 9.7% |
| Home +2 | 90.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Home +3 | 97.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:010.3%
- 2:08.8%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:04.6%
- 3:14.9%
- 3:22.6%
- 4:01.8%
- 4:11.9%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:08.2%
- 1:113.0%
- 2:25.0%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.6%
- 0:24.1%
- 1:26.4%
- 0:31.4%
- 1:32.3%
- 2:31.8%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.6%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74.9% | 49.0% | 27.2% | 12.8% |
| Under | 25.1% | 51.0% | 72.8% | 87.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 30.9%
- Over, even
- 18.2%
- Under, odd
- 16.9%
- Under, even
- 34.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 52.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 47.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sevilla
- 34.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Alavés
- 20.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 20.8% | 32.7% | 25.6% | 20.9% |
| Alavés | 34.5% | 36.7% | 19.6% | 9.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.6% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 1.5% |
| Draw | D/H 16.0% | D/D 16.6% | D/A 9.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.4% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 14.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Sevilla
Andalusian club from Seville and a record seven-time UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup winner, who finished 13th in La Liga in 2025–26.
- City
- Seville, Spain
- Stadium
- Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
- Founded
- 1890
Alavés
Basque club from Vitoria-Gasteiz, known for its compact and pragmatic approach, which usually competes in the lower half of La Liga and reached the 2001 UEFA Cup final.
- City
- Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
- Stadium
- Mendizorrotza
- Founded
- 1921
- Head coach
- Quique Sánchez Flores
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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