La Liga · Matchday 12
Celta Vigo vs Levante prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Celta Vigo a 51% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 23% for Levante; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.68 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Celta Vigo
- 51%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Levante
- 49%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 23%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 50%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Celta Vigo host Levante at Balaídos in La Liga Round 12 with five absentees, including Borja Iglesias and Starfelt, although Hugo González has recovered from an adductor scare. A Thursday Europa League defeat raises the possibility of rotation. Celta's last five matches brought two wins, two draws and a 0-3 loss at Rayo Vallecano. Levante are without Manu Sánchez, are winless in seven away league games and are coming off an emotionally difficult week. They won the last meeting 3-2 in May.
The published probabilities, which are the market consensus, make Celta favourites: home win 51%, draw 26%, away win 23%. Expected goals are 1.64–1.03, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:0 (11%) and 2:1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 04:23 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Celta Vigo (51%); expected goals Celta Vigo 1.64 – 1.03 Levante.
- 2.68 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 50%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
- Last five: Celta Vigo LDWDW (2 wins), Levante LLWDD (1 wins).
- Last 2 meetings in the dataset: Celta Vigo 1 wins, 0 draws, Levante 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Celta Vigo
- 1.64
- Expected goals · Levante
- 1.03
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 38% / 41% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Celta Vigo | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.1% | 7.6% | 88.2% |
| Home -2 | 11.8% | 15.8% | 72.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 27.5% | 23.4% | 49.1% |
| Home +1 | 76.8% | 14.5% | 8.7% |
| Home +2 | 91.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Home +3 | 97.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:010.6%
- 2:09.3%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:05.1%
- 3:15.3%
- 3:22.7%
- 4:02.1%
- 4:12.2%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.2%
- 0:07.5%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:25.0%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.5%
- 0:23.7%
- 1:26.0%
- 0:31.3%
- 1:32.1%
- 2:31.7%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75.4% | 50.1% | 28.1% | 13.4% |
| Under | 24.6% | 49.9% | 71.9% | 86.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.4%
- Over, even
- 18.7%
- Under, odd
- 17.1%
- Under, even
- 32.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 52.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 47.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Celta Vigo
- 35.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Levante
- 19.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 19.3% | 31.8% | 26.1% | 22.8% |
| Levante | 35.5% | 36.8% | 19.0% | 8.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 31.6% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.4% |
| Draw | D/H 16.7% | D/D 15.8% | D/A 8.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 13.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Celta Vigo 50.9% · Draw 25.9% · Levante 23.2% · 2.5+ 50.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.83 | 4.09 | 2.5: 1.93 / 1.95 | -0.5: 1.90 / 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.21 | 2.5: 1.97 / 1.97 | 0: 1.40 / 3.35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.91 | 3.77 | 4.07 | 2.5: 1.94 / 1.89 | -0.5: 1.91 / 1.94 |
| Coolbet | 1.86 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 2.5: 1.92 / 1.97 | -1: 2.59 / 1.55 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.89 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 2.5: 1.91 / 1.91 | -1: 2.62 / 1.50 |
| Matchbook | 1.93 | 3.70 | 4.60 | 2.5: 1.97 / 1.95 | -0.5: 1.91 / 2.00 |
| Betsson | 1.82 | 3.65 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.93 / 1.89 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 1.90 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.82 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.82 | 3.55 | 3.85 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.89 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.82 | 3.65 | 4.15 | 2.5: 1.90 / 1.85 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.79 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 2.5: 1.76 / 1.80 | – |
| Tipico | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.90 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.88 | 3.85 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.89 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.91 | 3.85 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.88 / 1.92 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that nothing in the latest news is fresh enough to shift the picture: Celta's five absentees, including Borja Iglesias and Starfelt, were published on the official squad list a day early and are already known to the market, while Hugo González has recovered from his adductor scare. The main soft factors are Celta's Thursday Europa League defeat and possible rotation, set against a Levante side missing Manu Sánchez, winless in seven away league games and dealing with an emotionally difficult week. Celta remain clear favourites at Balaídos, with goals finely balanced given both defences' recent frailty.
- Celta Vigo · Celta's official squad list for the match has 22 players. Carl Starfelt, Borja Iglesias, Miguel Román, Álvaro Núñez and Jones El-Abdellaoui are officially out injured. (moderate · rccelta.es)
- Celta Vigo · Hugo González was subbed off at Rayo with an adductor problem, and tests ruled out a tear. He returned to training and is in the squad for this match. (moderate · futbolfantasy.com)
- Celta Vigo · Celta lost 1-2 at home to Union Saint-Gilloise in the Europa League on Thursday, three days before this match, so some rotation is possible. No suspensions are reported. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Celta Vigo · Celta have taken 12 points from 11 league games (2W 6D 3L) and sit around 10th–11th. They have lost 0-3 at Rayo and are unbeaten in their last four home league games. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Levante · Manu Sánchez (Celta loanee, hamstring injury) is confirmed out and is also unavailable for the Copa del Rey. This forces Levante to reshuffle at full-back. (moderate · jornadaperfecta.com)
- Levante · Midfielder Enzo Bardeli is back from a muscle injury after missing three games. Luís Castro said he is not yet ready to start. Adrián de la Fuente is fit and expected to start. (minor · actualidadvalencia.com)
- Levante · Levante are in the relegation zone and need points to avoid entering the international break there. They lost 0-2 to Atlético and 1-2 to Real Sociedad, and are winless in their last seven away league games. (moderate · comuniate.com)
- Levante · Levante's squad is emotionally affected by the death of Jesús de Miguel, and Castro described silent training sessions. Castro said playing the match could also serve as a tribute. (minor · jornadaperfecta.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Celta Vigo
Galician club from Vigo, a regular La Liga side known for attacking, possession-minded football and its academy.
- City
- Vigo, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
- Founded
- 1923
- Head coach
- Claudio Giráldez
Levante
Valencia-based club nicknamed the Granotes (Frogs), promoted as Segunda División champions in 2025 and finishing 16th in their 2025–26 La Liga return.
- City
- Valencia, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadi Ciutat de València
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Luís Castro
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Celta Vigo
- L@ Rayo Vallecano0-3 · 10-31
- DReal Betis0-0 · 10-25
- WAlavés2-1 · 10-18
- D@ Elche0-0 · 10-11
- WRacing Santander5-0 · 09-19
Levante
- LAtlético Madrid0-2 · 10-31
- L@ Real Sociedad1-2 · 10-25
- WAthletic Club3-1 · 10-21
- D@ Deportivo La Coruña1-1 · 10-16
- DSevilla3-3 · 10-12
Celta Vigo 8 days rest · Levante 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-12Celta Vigo 2-3 LevanteLa Liga
- 2025-11-02Levante 1-2 Celta VigoLa Liga
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