La Liga · Matchday 11

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Rayo Vallecano
LDDWL
3 - 0
HT 1-0
Celta Vigo
DWDWD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Rayo Vallecano win 39%, draw 30%, Celta Vigo win 31%; the final score was 3:0.

Full time: Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Celta Vigo. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Rayo Vallecano" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultRayo Vallecano38.9%most likely
Correct score3:03.2%#11 of 31
Total goals3 goals21.0%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.543.5%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeH/H22.5%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Rayo Vallecano / Celta Vigo
70%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Celta Vigo
61%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:0
24%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
23%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Under
57%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Rayo Vallecano 39%, draw 30%, Celta Vigo 31% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.42 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 43%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
  • Last five: Rayo Vallecano LDDWL (1 wins), Celta Vigo DWDWD (2 wins).
  • A 30% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Rayo Vallecano 39%Draw 30%Celta Vigo 31%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Rayo Vallecano
1.29
Expected goals · Celta Vigo
1.13
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
30% / 45% / 25%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Rayo VallecanoDrawCelta Vigo
Home -31.8%4.5%93.7%
Home -26.3%11.7%82.1%
Home -1≈17.9%20.9%61.1%
Home +168.6%18.3%13.1%
Home +286.9%9.0%4.1%
Home +395.9%3.1%1.0%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Rayo Vallecano · Home
  • 1:010.3%
  • 2:07.4%
  • 2:18.3%
  • 3:03.2%
  • 3:13.6%
  • 3:22.0%
  • 4:01.0%
  • 4:11.1%
  • 4:20.6%
  • 5:00.3%
  • 5:10.3%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.5%
Draw
  • 0:010.1%
  • 1:114.1%
  • 2:24.7%
  • 3:30.8%
  • Other draw0.1%
Celta Vigo · Away
  • 0:18.9%
  • 0:25.7%
  • 1:27.3%
  • 0:32.1%
  • 1:32.8%
  • 2:31.8%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:40.8%
  • 2:40.5%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
10.1%
1
19.2%
2
27.2%
3
21.0%
4
12.7%
5
6.1%
6
2.5%
7+
1.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over70.7%43.5%22.5%9.8%
Under29.3%56.5%77.5%90.2%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
28.0%
Over, even
15.4%
Under, odd
19.2%
Under, even
37.3%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
50.2%
Both teams to score: No
49.8%
Clean-sheet probability · Rayo Vallecano
32.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Celta Vigo
27.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Rayo Vallecano27.6%35.5%22.9%14.0%
Celta Vigo32.3%36.5%20.6%10.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
22.5%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
1.7%
Draw
D/H
14.4%
D/D
19.0%
D/A
12.0%
Away
A/H
2.0%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
17.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Rayo Vallecano

A working-class club from Madrid's Vallecas district, Rayo is known for its passionate local identity and generally competes in the lower-middle part of La Liga.

City
Madrid, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de Vallecas
Founded
1924
Head coach
Beñat San José

Celta Vigo

Galician club from Vigo, a regular La Liga side known for attacking, possession-minded football and its academy.

City
Vigo, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Founded
1923
Head coach
Claudio Giráldez

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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