La Liga · Matchday 11

Barcelona vs Alavés prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Barcelona
LWWWW
6 - 1
HT 4-0
Alavés
DLLDL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Barcelona win 86%, draw 9%, Alavés win 5%; the final score was 6:1.

Full time: Barcelona 6-1 Alavés. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Barcelona" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultBarcelona86.3%most likely
Correct score6:116.1%outside the listed scores (pooled "other" cell)
Total goals7+ goals15.1%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.581.0%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H65.1%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Barcelona
86%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -3Miss
Alavés
48%
Correct scoreMiss
3:0 / 4:0
18%
Total goalsMiss
3 / 4 goals
37%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
65%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
81%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Barcelona (86%); expected goals Barcelona 3.54 – 0.83 Alavés.
  • Goals look likely: 4.37 expected in total, 81% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 3:0 (9%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (65%).
  • Last five: Barcelona LWWWW (4 wins), Alavés DLLDL (0 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Barcelona 86%Draw 9%Alavés 5%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Barcelona
3.54
Expected goals · Alavés
0.83
Most likely score
3:0 (9%)
Half-time result
68% / 24% / 8%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2BarcelonaDrawAlavés
Home -3≈33.2%18.6%48.2%
Home -251.8%19.2%29.0%
Home -171.0%15.3%13.7%
Home +195.0%3.6%1.3%
Home +298.7%1.1%0.3%
Home +399.7%0.2%0.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -3

Correct score

Barcelona · Home
  • 1:04.5%
  • 2:08.0%
  • 2:16.6%
  • 3:09.4%
  • 3:17.8%
  • 3:23.2%
  • 4:08.3%
  • 4:16.9%
  • 4:22.9%
  • 5:05.9%
  • 5:14.9%
  • 5:22.0%
  • Other home win16.1%
Draw
  • 0:01.2%
  • 1:13.7%
  • 2:22.7%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.2%
Alavés · Away
  • 0:11.1%
  • 0:20.4%
  • 1:21.5%
  • 0:30.1%
  • 1:30.4%
  • 2:30.8%
  • 0:40.0%
  • 1:40.1%
  • 2:40.2%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.0%
  • Other away win0.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
1.2%
1
5.6%
2
12.1%
3
17.6%
4
19.3%
5
16.8%
6
12.2%
7+
15.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over93.1%81.0%63.4%44.1%
Under6.9%19.0%36.6%55.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
44.4%
Over, even
36.6%
Under, odd
5.6%
Under, even
13.3%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
54.7%
Both teams to score: No
45.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Barcelona
43.6%
Clean-sheet probability · Alavés
2.9%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Barcelona2.9%10.3%18.2%68.5%
Alavés43.6%36.2%15.0%5.2%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
65.1%
H/D
2.1%
H/A
0.5%
Draw
D/H
17.6%
D/D
4.5%
D/A
1.9%
Away
A/H
3.6%
A/D
2.1%
A/A
2.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Barcelona

A Catalan club and one of Spain's biggest, known for its possession-based Barça style and La Masia academy; it is top of La Liga in the 2026–27 season under Hansi Flick.

City
Barcelona, Spain
Stadium
Spotify Camp Nou
Founded
1899
Head coach
Hansi Flick

Alavés

Basque club from Vitoria-Gasteiz, known for its compact and pragmatic approach, which usually competes in the lower half of La Liga and reached the 2001 UEFA Cup final.

City
Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Stadium
Mendizorrotza
Founded
1921
Head coach
Quique Sánchez Flores

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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