Club football · AI probability model

EFL Championship predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

172 EFL Championship matches played this season, 2.95 goals per game; Middlesbrough top the model's strength ranking. The 8 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Birmingham CityvsSwansea City
Home 50%Draw 26%Away 24%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.77
Over / under 2.5
Over 52%

AI picks: Birmingham City · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Blackburn RoversvsWest Ham United
Home 20%Draw 23%Away 57%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.08
Over / under 2.5
Over 59%

AI picks: West Ham United · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Cardiff CityvsBurnley
Home 48%Draw 24%Away 28%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.39
Over / under 2.5
Over 66%

AI picks: Cardiff City/Burnley · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Charlton AthleticvsSheffield United
Home 24%Draw 27%Away 50%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.71
Over / under 2.5
Over 51%

AI picks: Draw/Sheffield United · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Preston North EndvsSouthampton
Home 18%Draw 22%Away 60%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.04
Over / under 2.5
Over 59%

AI picks: Southampton · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
QPRvsLincoln City
Home 58%Draw 24%Away 19%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
2.80
Over / under 2.5
Over 53%

AI picks: QPR · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
WatfordvsMiddlesbrough
Home 16%Draw 21%Away 64%
Most likely score
0:2 10%
Expected total goals
3.13
Over / under 2.5
Over 61%

AI picks: Middlesbrough · 0:2 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
West BromvsMillwall
Home 48%Draw 27%Away 26%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.70
Over / under 2.5
Over 51%

AI picks: West Brom/Draw · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Stoke City159242418+629WWWDW
2Southampton148422914+1528DWWDW
3Middlesbrough148423019+1128LWWDW
4Wolves158432618+828DWWWD
5Birmingham City147522613+1326WWLWW
6Swansea City148242116+526LWLLW
7West Brom147432015+525DWDWW
8West Ham United146533621+1523DLLWW
9Sheffield United146442017+322WWDWL
10Portsmouth156452018+222LWDWD
11Norwich City157083224+821WWWWL
12QPR145632217+521DLWLW
13Millwall145362324-118LWLDL
14Blackburn Rovers145362022-218LLWLW
15Wrexham154651820-218DWLLW
16Bristol City155371624-818LLWDL
17Bolton Wanderers155282029-917LWLLD
18Cardiff City143652223-115DLWDW
19Lincoln City144371424-1015LLWDL
20Watford144281323-1014WLLWL
21Charlton Athletic143561122-1114LLLLD
22Burnley141761826-810DDLLD
23Derby County152491430-1610WLLDL
24Preston North End1412111230-185LLDLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Middlesbrough+0.731.360.841.90 / 1.18
2West Ham United+0.681.410.921.97 / 1.29
3Southampton+0.541.230.841.72 / 1.18
4Wolves+0.491.160.811.63 / 1.14
5Birmingham City+0.421.120.821.57 / 1.15
6Norwich City+0.411.250.961.75 / 1.34
7West Brom+0.221.000.851.40 / 1.18
8Sheffield United+0.091.020.961.43 / 1.34
9Swansea City+0.080.980.921.38 / 1.29
10QPR+0.061.010.971.41 / 1.36
11Wrexham+0.030.930.911.29 / 1.27
12Stoke City+0.010.940.931.31 / 1.30
13Cardiff City-0.031.131.151.58 / 1.61
14Millwall-0.040.981.011.38 / 1.41
15Portsmouth-0.060.910.951.27 / 1.33
16Burnley-0.120.971.051.36 / 1.48
17Bristol City-0.200.881.021.23 / 1.44
18Blackburn Rovers-0.260.891.071.24 / 1.50
19Lincoln City-0.400.821.101.14 / 1.54
20Watford-0.450.811.141.14 / 1.59
21Derby County-0.460.821.151.15 / 1.61
22Bolton Wanderers-0.470.891.231.24 / 1.72
23Charlton Athletic-0.580.721.141.01 / 1.59
24Preston North End-0.680.781.271.10 / 1.78

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

5/6Miss
Wrexham1 - 1Wolves
Home 26%Draw 28%Away 45%

AI picks: Draw/Wolves · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2/6Miss
Portsmouth1 - 2Stoke City
Home 40%Draw 30%Away 30%

AI picks: Portsmouth/Draw · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Hit
Bristol City0 - 5Norwich City
Home 34%Draw 28%Away 38%

AI picks: Bristol City/Norwich City · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Derby County3 - 1Bolton Wanderers
Home 45%Draw 25%Away 30%

AI picks: Derby County/Bolton Wanderers · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Bristol City1 - 2Wolves
Home 26%Draw 27%Away 47%

AI picks: Draw/Wolves · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Wrexham2 - 0Middlesbrough
Home 22%Draw 25%Away 53%

AI picks: Middlesbrough · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Cardiff City3 - 3West Ham United
Home 28%Draw 23%Away 48%

AI picks: Cardiff City/West Ham United · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
West Brom1 - 1Southampton
Home 42%Draw 28%Away 31%

AI picks: West Brom/Southampton · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
Birmingham City3 - 0Millwall
Home 49%Draw 26%Away 25%

AI picks: Birmingham City/Draw · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Watford1 - 0Lincoln City
Home 38%Draw 28%Away 34%

AI picks: Watford/Lincoln City · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 172 · 1X2 accuracy 50.6% · RPS 0.213

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=172
1X2 (match result)66.9%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High55.0%
Handicap 1X247.1%
Correct score (top 2)18.6%
Total goals (top 2)40.1%
Half-time / full-time33.1%
Over / under 2.559.9%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
2.95
Home wins
41.3%
Draws
26.2%
Away wins
32.6%
Over 2.5
61.6%
Both teams score
62.2%
Matches
172
HT / FT
48.9%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.8%
1
16.3%
2
16.3%
3
23.3%
4
22.1%
5
11.1%
6
4.1%
7+
1.2%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
28.5%
H/D
3.5%
H/A
1.7%
D/H
8.1%
D/D
13.4%
D/A
12.8%
A/H
4.7%
A/D
9.3%
A/A
18.0%