EFL Championship · Matchday 15
Birmingham City vs Swansea City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Birmingham City a 50% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 24% for Swansea City; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.77 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Birmingham City
- 50%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Swansea City
- 50%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 31%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Birmingham City host Swansea City in the Championship with both sides on four days' rest. The hosts have won five of their last six and four of their last five, scoring 13 in that run, including three straight home wins to nil. Swansea have lost three of their last four and are short in midfield with Widell and Eustaquio out. Priske is a doubt for Birmingham, though they won 3-0 against Millwall without him. Swansea have not won any of the last four meetings, which ended 1-1, 1-0, 2-2 and 1-1.
The published probabilities make Birmingham favourites at 51%, with the draw at 26% and a Swansea win at 23%. Expected goals are 1.68 to 1.06. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:0 (10%) and 2:1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 52% and both teams scoring at 54%, so a close game with goals at both ends is plausible.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:35 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Birmingham City (50%); expected goals Birmingham City 1.68 – 1.09 Swansea City.
- 2.77 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (31%).
- Last five: Birmingham City WWLWW (4 wins), Swansea City LWLLW (2 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Birmingham City 1 wins, 3 draws, Swansea City 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Birmingham City
- 1.68
- Expected goals · Swansea City
- 1.09
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 38% / 40% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Birmingham City | Draw | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.3% | 7.7% | 88.0% |
| Home -2 | 12.0% | 15.7% | 72.4% |
| Home -1≈ | 27.6% | 22.7% | 49.7% |
| Home +1 | 76.4% | 14.3% | 9.3% |
| Home +2 | 90.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Home +3 | 97.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.6%
- 2:08.9%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:05.0%
- 3:15.4%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:02.1%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.4%
- 0:07.2%
- 1:112.4%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:15.9%
- 0:23.7%
- 1:26.2%
- 0:31.3%
- 1:32.3%
- 2:31.9%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.6%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.3% | 52.3% | 30.1% | 14.7% |
| Under | 22.7% | 47.7% | 69.9% | 85.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.4%
- Over, even
- 19.9%
- Under, odd
- 15.4%
- Under, even
- 32.3%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Birmingham City
- 33.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Swansea City
- 18.6%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City | 18.6% | 31.3% | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Swansea City | 33.7% | 36.7% | 19.9% | 9.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 31.4% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 1.5% |
| Draw | D/H 16.2% | D/D 15.5% | D/A 8.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 13.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Birmingham City
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: C. Davies
- 21 R. Allsop
- 2 E. Laird
- 5 P. Neumann
- 4 C. Klarer
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 24 T. Iwata
- 14 J. Solis
- 16 P. Roberts
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 17 L. Millar
- 18 M. Bird
Swansea City
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: Vítor Matos
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 26 F. Lissah
- 5 B. Cabango
- 3 J. Seelt
- 14 J. Tymon
- 17 Gonçalo Franco
- 4 J. Fulton
- 6 M. Stamenić
- 49 M. Yeo
- 31 R. Stewart
- 10 Eom Ji-Sung
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Birmingham go into this top-of-the-table clash as clear favourites, having won five of their last six and kept clean sheets in three straight home wins, while Swansea have lost three of their last four and are short of midfield options with Widell and Eustaquio out. Priske's doubt slightly weakens the home attack, but Birmingham coped comfortably without him against Millwall. Nothing in the team news looks unpriced, so we stay close to the market at around 51% home, 26% draw, 23% away.
- Birmingham City · Striker August Priske is a major doubt with a heavy knock and was due to be assessed on Friday. He missed the Millwall win. (moderate · the72.co.uk)
- Birmingham City · Paik Seung-ho is back in full training after a spell out since mid-September, and Dael Fry has recovered from illness. Both are available but unlikely to start. (minor · uk.sports.yahoo.com)
- Birmingham City · Goalkeeper James Beadle is expected to miss out, so Ryan Allsop is likely to continue in goal. (minor · dave.sport)
- Swansea City · Midfielder Melker Widell is out with a grade one hamstring strain and is expected back after the international break. (moderate · hayters.com)
- Swansea City · Stephen Eustaquio is still out with a groin injury, and Cameron Burgess remains sidelined with a long-term Achilles injury. (moderate · britbrief.co.uk)
- Swansea City · Defender Stephen Welsh's scan was clear after he went off at Portsmouth, but he is still being assessed for Saturday. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- Swansea City · Jisung Eom and Moussa Yeo are available again after knocks and a hamstring problem. Ben Cabango is also fit. (minor · uk.sports.yahoo.com)
- Birmingham City · Birmingham have won five of their last six league games and are chasing a fourth straight home league win. They are in the Championship's top two. (moderate · dave.sport)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Birmingham City
A historic West Midlands club in the EFL Championship, managed by Chris Davies.
- City
- Birmingham, England
- Stadium
- St Andrew's (Knighthead Park)
- Founded
- 1875
- Head coach
- Chris Davies
Swansea City
A Welsh club known as the Swans, who play in the English EFL Championship and have a history of possession-based football.
- City
- Swansea, Wales
- Stadium
- Swansea.com Stadium
- Founded
- 1912
- Head coach
- Vitor Matos
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Birmingham City
- WMillwall3-0 · 11-03
- W@ Lincoln City3-1 · 10-31
- L@ Cardiff City0-1 · 10-24
- WQPR3-0 · 10-17
- WPreston North End4-0 · 10-13
Swansea City
- L@ Portsmouth1-3 · 11-03
- WBlackburn Rovers4-0 · 10-31
- L@ QPR0-5 · 10-24
- LWest Ham United0-1 · 10-17
- W@ Millwall1-0 · 10-13
Birmingham City 4 days rest · Swansea City 4 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-01-17Swansea City 1-1 Birmingham CityEFL Championship
- 2025-09-20Birmingham City 1-0 Swansea CityEFL Championship
- 2024-01-13Birmingham City 2-2 Swansea CityEFL Championship
- 2023-08-05Swansea City 1-1 Birmingham CityEFL Championship
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