EFL Championship Β· Matchday 14
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Wrexham win 22%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough win 53%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Wrexham 2-0 Middlesbrough. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Middlesbrough" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Wrexham | 21.7% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 3.4% | #11 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.9% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 48.0% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 8.1% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Middlesbrough
- 53%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Wrexham
- 47%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 33%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Middlesbrough (53%); expected goals Wrexham 1.03 β 1.73 Middlesbrough.
- 2.76 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (33%).
- Last five: Wrexham LLWLD (1 wins), Middlesbrough WWDWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Wrexham
- 1.03
- Expected goals Β· Middlesbrough
- 1.73
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 20% / 40% / 40%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Wrexham | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 97.7% |
| Home -2 | 2.3% | 5.9% | 91.9% |
| Home -1 | 8.1% | 13.5% | 78.3% |
| Home +1β | 47.1% | 23.3% | 29.7% |
| Home +2 | 70.3% | 16.5% | 13.2% |
| Home +3 | 86.8% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.7%
- 2:03.4%
- 2:15.8%
- 3:01.2%
- 3:12.0%
- 3:21.7%
- 4:00.3%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.4%
- 0:07.2%
- 1:112.1%
- 2:25.0%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:110.2%
- 0:29.5%
- 1:29.8%
- 0:35.5%
- 1:35.6%
- 2:32.9%
- 0:42.4%
- 1:42.4%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.8%
- 1:50.8%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.9% | 52.0% | 29.8% | 14.6% |
| Under | 23.1% | 48.0% | 70.2% | 85.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.3%
- Over, even
- 19.7%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 32.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Wrexham
- 17.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Middlesbrough
- 35.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 35.7% | 36.8% | 18.9% | 8.6% |
| Middlesbrough | 17.8% | 30.7% | 26.5% | 25.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 12.2% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 2.7% |
| Draw | D/H 8.1% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 16.9% |
| Away | A/H 1.4% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 33.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Wrexham
One of the oldest clubs in the world, Welsh side Wrexham have been owned by Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds since 2021 and returned to the Football League in 2023.
- City
- Wrexham, Wales
- Stadium
- Racecourse Ground
- Founded
- 1864
- Head coach
- Phil Parkinson
Middlesbrough
Nicknamed Boro, this Teesside club has played in the EFL Championship since 2017 and is led by Swedish head coach Kim Hellberg, whose side emphasises possession-based football.
- City
- Middlesbrough, England
- Stadium
- Riverside Stadium
- Founded
- 1876
- Head coach
- Kim Hellberg
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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