EFL Championship · Matchday 15
Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Portsmouth win 40%, draw 30%, Stoke City win 30%; the final score was 1:2.
Full time: Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Portsmouth" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Stoke City | 29.6% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:2 | 7.0% | #7 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 20.7% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.1% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/A | 1.5% | #9 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Portsmouth / Draw
- 70%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Stoke City
- 60%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 25%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 58%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Portsmouth host Stoke City in Championship Round 15, with both sides on four days' rest. Pompey are unbeaten in their last five (three wins, two draws) and on an unbeaten home run. However, they lose striker Milovanović and may also be without midfielder Mohamed, adding to a long injury list. Stoke, a point off the automatic places, have won three of their last five and welcome back Galbraith from suspension.
The probabilities make Portsmouth narrow favourites at 42%, with a draw at 29% and a Stoke win at 28%. Expected goals are 1.37–1.08, and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (14%), 1:0 (11%) and 0:0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 44% and both teams scoring at 50%, pointing to a tight, fairly low-scoring contest.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:29 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Portsmouth 40%, draw 30%, Stoke City 30% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.36 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 42%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: Portsmouth WDWDW (3 wins), Stoke City WWDWL (3 wins).
- A 30% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Portsmouth
- 1.29
- Expected goals · Stoke City
- 1.07
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 45% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.9% | 4.7% | 93.4% |
| Home -2 | 6.6% | 12.2% | 81.2% |
| Home -1≈ | 18.8% | 21.6% | 59.7% |
| Home +1 | 70.4% | 17.7% | 11.9% |
| Home +2 | 88.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% |
| Home +3 | 96.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:011.0%
- 2:07.8%
- 2:18.4%
- 3:03.4%
- 3:13.6%
- 3:21.9%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.2%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:010.6%
- 1:114.2%
- 2:24.5%
- 3:30.7%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.9%
- 0:25.4%
- 1:27.0%
- 0:31.9%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:31.6%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69.5% | 42.1% | 21.4% | 9.1% |
| Under | 30.5% | 57.9% | 78.6% | 90.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 27.3%
- Over, even
- 14.8%
- Under, odd
- 19.9%
- Under, even
- 38.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 48.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 51.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Portsmouth
- 34.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Stoke City
- 27.5%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 27.5% | 35.5% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
| Stoke City | 34.2% | 36.7% | 19.7% | 9.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.9% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 1.5% |
| Draw | D/H 14.5% | D/D 19.4% | D/A 11.2% |
| Away | A/H 1.9% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 16.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Portsmouth's unbeaten home run keeps them narrow favourites, but losing striker Milovanović and possibly midfielder Mohamed to an already long injury list trims their edge slightly. Stoke, a point off the automatic places and with Galbraith back from suspension, arrive in excellent form and we nudge their chances up a touch. With Pompey's attack depleted, a low-scoring, tight contest looks the most likely shape.
- Portsmouth · Striker Marko Milovanović is ruled out with a quad injury picked up against Swansea. (major · portsmouth.co.uk)
- Portsmouth · Midfielder Iyad Mohamed (calf) went off against Swansea and was awaiting scan results. His availability is unconfirmed, though Mousinho described the problem as less severe than Milovanović's. (moderate · portsmouthfc.co.uk)
- Portsmouth · Arthur, Ogilvie, Kosznovszky, Swift, Brooke-Smith, Anderson and Bishop are all still sidelined with injuries. (moderate · portsmouthfc.co.uk)
- Portsmouth · Portsmouth are unbeaten in six league games and have taken 13 points from their last 15 available at Fratton Park. Waddingham, Kamara and Murphy gave them attacking options off the bench against Swansea. (minor · portsmouth.co.uk)
- Stoke City · Midfielder Ethan Galbraith returns after a one-match suspension (he missed the Blackburn game). (moderate · portsmouth.co.uk)
- Stoke City · Gallagher, Cresswell, Bocat, Cissé and Ampah are all unavailable through injury. Earlier previews had Gallagher and Cresswell close to returning, but the later reports list them as still out. (moderate · portsmouth.co.uk)
- Stoke City · Stoke are third or fourth in the table, a point off automatic promotion, and have lost only one of their last 11 league games. Robins is expected to make few changes to the side that won at Blackburn. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Portsmouth
Nicknamed Pompey, this south-coast club plays in the EFL Championship after winning League One in 2023–24, under head coach John Mousinho, who favours attacking football.
- City
- Portsmouth, England
- Stadium
- Fratton Park
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- John Mousinho
Stoke City
Nicknamed the Potters, Stoke City are a former Premier League club who play in the EFL Championship.
- City
- Stoke-on-Trent, England
- Stadium
- bet365 Stadium
- Founded
- 1863
- Head coach
- Mark Robins
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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