Serie A · Matchday 11
Monza vs Atalanta prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Monza a 29% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 46% for Atalanta; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 3.13 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Monza / Atalanta
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Monza
- 54%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 61%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Monza host Atalanta in Serie A Matchday 11 having lost four of their last five, although the one win was a 4-0 home result against Cagliari. They have had eight days' rest, two more than Atalanta, who have taken one win from their last five and are without I. Hien. Atalanta won each of the last four meetings, including 4-0 away in May 2025.
The published probabilities, which are the market consensus, make Atalanta favourites at 46%, with the draw at 25% and a Monza win at 29%. Expected goals are 1.37–1.77, and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:2 (9%) and 2:1 (7%). Over 2.5 goals is 61% and both teams scoring is 63%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:29 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Atalanta (46%); expected goals Monza 1.37 – 1.76 Atalanta.
- Goals look likely: 3.13 expected in total, 61% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Monza LLLWL (1 wins), Atalanta LDDLW (1 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Monza 0 wins, 0 draws, Atalanta 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Monza
- 1.37
- Expected goals · Atalanta
- 1.76
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 25% / 39% / 36%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Monza | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.3% | 3.3% | 95.4% |
| Home -2 | 4.6% | 8.5% | 86.8% |
| Home -1 | 13.2% | 15.6% | 71.2% |
| Home +1≈ | 54.2% | 20.5% | 25.3% |
| Home +2 | 74.7% | 14.2% | 11.1% |
| Home +3 | 88.9% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:04.9%
- 2:04.1%
- 2:17.2%
- 3:01.9%
- 3:13.3%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:00.6%
- 4:11.1%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:05.5%
- 1:111.6%
- 2:26.4%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:16.6%
- 0:26.8%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.0%
- 1:35.5%
- 2:33.7%
- 0:41.8%
- 1:42.4%
- 2:41.6%
- 0:50.6%
- 1:50.9%
- 2:50.6%
- Other away win2.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.1% | 60.6% | 38.2% | 20.7% |
| Under | 16.9% | 39.4% | 61.8% | 79.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.2%
- Over, even
- 24.3%
- Under, odd
- 11.5%
- Under, even
- 28.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Monza
- 17.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Atalanta
- 25.5%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 25.5% | 34.8% | 23.8% | 15.9% |
| Atalanta | 17.1% | 30.2% | 26.7% | 26.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 16.7% | H/D 5.8% | H/A 3.0% |
| Draw | D/H 10.0% | D/D 13.9% | D/A 14.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.1% | A/D 5.8% | A/A 28.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Monza 28.8% · Draw 25.4% · Atalanta 45.8% · 2.5+ 60.6%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.33 | 3.86 | 2.12 | 3: 1.87 / 2.03 | +0.5: 1.81 / 2.12 |
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 4.01 | 2.10 | 2.5: 1.63 / 2.48 | 0: 2.57 / 1.60 |
| BetAnything | 3.22 | 3.94 | 2.10 | 3: 1.87 / 1.95 | +0.25: 1.96 / 1.86 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.38 | 3.78 | 2.11 | 3: 1.83 / 1.98 | +0.5: 1.73 / 2.11 |
| Coolbet | 3.35 | 3.80 | 2.12 | 3: 1.89 / 1.99 | +1: 1.43 / 3.05 |
| GTbets | 3.33 | 3.73 | 2.08 | 3.5: 2.35 / 1.58 | +0.5: 1.73 / 2.07 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.34 | 3.90 | 2.04 | 2.5: 1.58 / 2.40 | 0: 2.48 / 1.54 |
| Matchbook | 3.50 | 3.85 | 2.14 | 3.5: 2.38 / 1.68 | +0.25: 2.06 / 1.85 |
| Betsson | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.08 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.49 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.14 | 3.5: 2.21 / 1.57 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.02 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.40 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 3.30 | 3.65 | 2.08 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.48 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 2.5: 1.48 / 2.23 | – |
| Tipico | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.05 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.55 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Team news & line-ups
Monza
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Atalanta
Injuries & suspensions
- I. Hien · Muscle Bruise
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this is a meeting of two teams in crisis, but Atalanta's problems run deeper than the headline injury list suggests: with Hien, Kossounou, Bellanova and Kristensen all unavailable, the makeshift back four that has shipped 12 goals in four games stays patched together. Monza are themselves depleted and on a three-match losing run, so Atalanta's fresher front line of Krstović and De Ketelaere and their seven-game head-to-head streak still make them narrow favourites. The real takeaway is that two leaky defences point to goals at both ends.
- Monza · Monza are without Pessina, Maye and Ziółkowski, and Folorunsho (calf) is a doubt. No one is suspended. (minor · dazn.com)
- Monza · Monza have lost three straight (Torino, Napoli, Bologna) and sit near the relegation zone. Top scorer Varela, called up by Portugal, leads the attack. (moderate · legaseriea.it)
- Atalanta · Atalanta are missing Hien, Kossounou, Bellanova, Gaetano, Raspadori, Kristensen and Pompei. Kessié and Kolašinac are back in training but are unlikely to start. (major · dazn.com)
- Atalanta · Atalanta have not won in Serie A since 12 October and have conceded 12 goals in their last four league games. They have 11 points from 10 games, their lowest tally at this stage since 2014/15. (moderate · legaseriea.it)
- Atalanta · Krstović and De Ketelaere were rested in the midweek Kairat game and are expected to start. Scamacca is back on the bench. (moderate · calciodangolo.com)
- Atalanta · Atalanta have won the last seven meetings against Monza, including 4-0 away in 2024/25. (minor · legaseriea.it)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Monza
Lombardy club nicknamed the Biancorossi, promoted back to Serie A via the 2026 Serie B play-offs and playing in the lower half of the table in 2026–27.
- City
- Monza, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Brianteo
- Founded
- 1912
- Head coach
- Ivan Jurić
Atalanta
A Bergamo-based Serie A club and 2023–24 UEFA Europa League winner, Atalanta finished 7th in 2025–26.
- City
- Bergamo, Italy
- Stadium
- New Balance Arena
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Maurizio Sarri
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Monza
- L@ Bologna1-2 · 10-31
- LNapoli1-4 · 10-28
- L@ Torino2-3 · 10-23
- WCagliari4-0 · 10-19
- L@ Lazio1-3 · 10-11
Atalanta
- LParma0-3 · 11-02
- D@ Fiorentina2-2 · 10-29
- DFrosinone4-4 · 10-25
- L@ AC Milan2-3 · 10-18
- WVenezia3-1 · 10-12
Monza 8 days rest · Atalanta 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2025-05-04Monza 0-4 AtalantaSerie A
- 2024-10-30Atalanta 2-0 MonzaSerie A
- 2024-04-21Monza 1-2 AtalantaSerie A
- 2023-09-02Atalanta 3-0 MonzaSerie A
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