Eredivisie Β· Matchday 11
Telstar vs FC Utrecht prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Telstar win 29%, draw 25%, FC Utrecht win 46%; the final score was 4:2.
Full time: Telstar 4-2 FC Utrecht. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Utrecht" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Telstar | 28.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 4:2 | 0.9% | #23 of 31 |
| Total goals | 6 goals | 5.2% | #7 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 16.2% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Telstar / FC Utrecht
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Telstar
- 54%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 59%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour FC Utrecht (46%); expected goals Telstar 1.32 β 1.72 FC Utrecht.
- Goals look likely: 3.04 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Telstar LLDLD (0 wins), FC Utrecht DWWLW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Telstar
- 1.32
- Expected goals Β· FC Utrecht
- 1.72
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 25% / 40% / 35%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Telstar | Draw | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 95.6% |
| Home -2 | 4.4% | 8.4% | 87.2% |
| Home -1 | 12.8% | 15.9% | 71.3% |
| Home +1β | 54.1% | 20.9% | 25.0% |
| Home +2 | 75.0% | 14.2% | 10.8% |
| Home +3 | 89.2% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.4%
- 2:04.2%
- 2:17.2%
- 3:01.8%
- 3:13.2%
- 3:22.7%
- 4:00.6%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.9%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win1.0%
- 0:05.7%
- 1:111.8%
- 2:26.2%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:17.3%
- 0:27.1%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.0%
- 1:35.3%
- 2:33.5%
- 0:41.7%
- 1:42.3%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:50.6%
- 1:50.8%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81.6% | 58.6% | 36.2% | 19.2% |
| Under | 18.4% | 41.4% | 63.8% | 80.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.4%
- Over, even
- 23.2%
- Under, odd
- 12.7%
- Under, even
- 28.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 61.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 38.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Telstar
- 17.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Utrecht
- 26.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 26.7% | 35.2% | 23.3% | 14.8% |
| FC Utrecht | 17.9% | 30.8% | 26.5% | 24.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 16.2% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 3.0% |
| Draw | D/H 10.4% | D/D 14.2% | D/A 15.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.1% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 27.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Telstar
A small club from the IJmuiden area, formed in 1963 by a merger of VSV and Stormvogels. It returned to the Eredivisie in 2025 after 47 years away and finished its first season back in 14th place.
- City
- Velsen-Zuid, Netherlands
- Stadium
- BUKO Stadion
- Founded
- 1963
- Head coach
- Henk Brugge
FC Utrecht
Founded in 1970 through a merger of local clubs, Utrecht have never been relegated from the Eredivisie.
- City
- Utrecht, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Stadion Galgenwaard
- Founded
- 1970
- Head coach
- Anthony Correia
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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