Primeira Liga · Matchday 11
Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Santa Clara a 43% chance of winning, 31% for a draw and 27% for Gil Vicente; the single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) with 2.20 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Santa Clara / Draw
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Gil Vicente
- 57%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 27%
- Total goals
- 1 / 2 goals
- 50%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 62%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Santa Clara host Gil Vicente in Primeira Liga Matchday 11 with seven days' rest, against six for the visitors. The hosts have won three of their last five (W 2-0 at Marítimo, L 1-2 v Benfica, W 1-0 at Casa Pia, D 0-0 v Braga, W 2-1 at Arouca). Gil Vicente have two wins, two draws and a loss, including a 0-1 home defeat to FC Porto. Reported absences include Paciência and Ferreira, plus José Silva and Héctor Hernández on Gil Vicente's side. Santa Clara won three of the last four meetings, and all four were decided by one goal.
The published probabilities, a margin-free market consensus, make Santa Clara moderate favourites: home win 43%, draw 30%, away win 27%. Expected goals are 1.26–0.95, and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (14%), 1:0 (13%) and 0:0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 38% and both teams scoring at 45%, which points to a tight, low-scoring contest.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:26 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Santa Clara (43%); expected goals Santa Clara 1.26 – 0.94 Gil Vicente.
- A tight game is the base case: 2.20 goals expected, 62% for under 2.5.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
- Last five: Santa Clara WLWDW (3 wins), Gil Vicente DLWWD (2 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Santa Clara 3 wins, 0 draws, Gil Vicente 1 wins.
- A 31% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Santa Clara
- 1.26
- Expected goals · Gil Vicente
- 0.94
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 29% / 50% / 20%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Santa Clara | Draw | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.9% | 4.9% | 93.2% |
| Home -2 | 6.8% | 12.7% | 80.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 19.5% | 23.0% | 57.5% |
| Home +1 | 73.1% | 17.0% | 9.8% |
| Home +2 | 90.2% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Home +3 | 97.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:013.0%
- 2:08.7%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:03.7%
- 3:13.5%
- 3:21.6%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.1%
- 4:20.5%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.4%
- 0:012.1%
- 1:114.1%
- 2:23.9%
- 3:30.5%
- Other draw0.0%
- 0:19.5%
- 0:24.9%
- 1:26.2%
- 0:31.6%
- 1:31.9%
- 2:31.2%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65.5% | 37.7% | 18.0% | 7.2% |
| Under | 34.5% | 62.3% | 82.0% | 92.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 25.0%
- Over, even
- 12.7%
- Under, odd
- 22.5%
- Under, even
- 39.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 44.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 55.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Santa Clara
- 38.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Gil Vicente
- 28.5%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 28.5% | 35.8% | 22.5% | 13.3% |
| Gil Vicente | 38.9% | 36.7% | 17.3% | 7.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.9% | H/D 4.8% | H/A 1.4% |
| Draw | D/H 17.6% | D/D 20.9% | D/A 11.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 4.8% | A/A 13.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Santa Clara 42.5% · Draw 30.6% · Gil Vicente 26.9% · 2.5+ 37.7%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.05 | 3.63 | 2: 1.91 / 1.96 | -0.25: 1.95 / 1.93 |
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2: 1.90 / 1.87 | -1: 3.67 / 1.27 |
| GTbets | 2.16 | 3.16 | 3.37 | 1.5: 1.51 / 2.51 | -0.5: 2.21 / 1.65 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.17 | 3.10 | 3.42 | 2.5: 2.53 / 1.48 | 0: 1.52 / 2.40 |
| Matchbook | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.5: 2.48 / 1.53 | -0.25: 1.94 / 1.93 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.26 | 2.98 | 3.60 | 2: 1.83 / 1.93 | – |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.5: 2.48 / 1.50 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.04 | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.5: 2.43 / 1.47 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.22 | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.5: 2.48 / 1.50 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.02 | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.5: 2.35 / 1.41 | – |
| Tipico | 2.20 | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.5: 2.45 / 1.52 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.5: 2.45 / 1.47 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.5: 2.45 / 1.47 | – |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.5: 2.45 / 1.50 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmakers already have this one about right: Santa Clara, fourth in the table and well rested, are moderate favourites against a Gil Vicente side that has not won in three. The injury news on both sides is mostly old – Paciência and Ferreira have been missing for weeks, and Gil's loss of José Silva and the continued absence of Héctor Hernández were known before the weekend. With both top scorers likely out and both teams coming off tight, low-scoring games, a cagey, low-goal contest looks the most plausible shape.
- Santa Clara · Midfielder Pedro Ferreira is injured (hurt vs Benfica on 26 Oct) and is expected to miss a second straight game. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Santa Clara · Defender Matheus Araujo is still returning from a severe knee injury and is listed as out. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Santa Clara · Top scorer Gonçalo Paciência (5 goals) missed the Benfica and Marítimo games and is reported as doubtful. (moderate · betmines.com)
- Santa Clara · Goalkeeper Lucas França has been injured, and Neneca played well in the win at Marítimo, so Neneca is likely to start. (minor · betmines.com)
- Gil Vicente · Defender José Silva went off injured late in the 0-0 draw with Vitória Guimarães and is out of contention for this match. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Gil Vicente · Arthur Tchaptchet and midfielder Mohamed Bamba (long-term knee injury) remain sidelined. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Gil Vicente · Top scorer Héctor Hernández (3 goals) has been out for almost a month and is doubtful. (moderate · betmines.com)
- Gil Vicente · Manager Luís Pinto wants more chances created and more attacking variety. Gil have not won in three games, and the Benfica Taça da Liga exit was on 29 Oct. (minor · ominho.pt)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Santa Clara
Santa Clara, from Ponta Delgada in the Azores, is the only Azorean club to have played in Portugal's top flight.
- City
- Ponta Delgada, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio de São Miguel
- Founded
- 1921
- Head coach
- Petit
Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente, nicknamed the Galos (Roosters), is a club from Barcelos in northern Portugal that plays in the Primeira Liga and is usually seen as a mid-table side.
- City
- Barcelos, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
- Founded
- 1924
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Santa Clara
- W@ Marítimo2-0 · 11-01
- LBenfica1-2 · 10-26
- W@ Casa Pia1-0 · 10-10
- DBraga0-0 · 09-20
- W@ Arouca2-1 · 09-13
Gil Vicente
- DVitória Guimarães0-0 · 11-02
- LFC Porto0-1 · 10-24
- W@ Braga2-1 · 10-19
- W@ Moreirense1-0 · 10-09
- DMarítimo1-1 · 09-19
Santa Clara 7 days rest · Gil Vicente 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-21Santa Clara 1-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- 2025-11-03Gil Vicente 1-0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 2025-03-15Gil Vicente 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 2024-10-25Santa Clara 2-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
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