Primeira Liga · Matchday 11
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Estrela Amadora a 8% chance of winning, 14% for a draw and 77% for Benfica; the single most likely score is 0:2 (11%) with 3.48 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Benfica
- 77%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +2
- Estrela Amadora
- 43%
- Correct score
- 0:2 / 0:3
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 51%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 67%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Estrela Amadora host Benfica in Primeira Liga round 11 without a win in their last five (four defeats and a 3-3 draw at Rio Ave), conceding ten goals in that run. Benfica have won four of their last five, the exception being a 1-3 loss at FC Porto, and they won all four recent meetings with Estrela, including 4-0 in January. The hosts have had eight days of rest, the visitors six.
The published probabilities give Benfica a 76% chance of winning, with the draw at 15% and an Estrela Amadora win at 9%. Expected goals are 0.80 for the hosts and 2.62 for the visitors. The most likely scores are 0:2 (11%), 0:3 (10%) and 1:2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 66% and both teams scoring at 51%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 20 bookmakers.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:23 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Benfica (77%); expected goals Estrela Amadora 0.79 – 2.69 Benfica.
- Goals look likely: 3.48 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 0:2 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (51%).
- Last five: Estrela Amadora LLLLD (0 wins), Benfica WWWLW (4 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Estrela Amadora 0 wins, 0 draws, Benfica 6 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Estrela Amadora
- 0.79
- Expected goals · Benfica
- 2.69
- Most likely score
- 0:2 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 11% / 34% / 55%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 99.5% |
| Home -2 | 0.5% | 1.9% | 97.6% |
| Home -1 | 2.4% | 6.0% | 91.6% |
| Home +1 | 22.7% | 20.7% | 56.6% |
| Home +2≈ | 43.4% | 21.5% | 35.1% |
| Home +3 | 64.9% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home +2
Correct score
- 1:02.3%
- 2:01.0%
- 2:12.6%
- 3:00.3%
- 3:10.7%
- 3:20.9%
- 4:00.1%
- 4:10.1%
- 4:20.2%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.0%
- 5:20.0%
- Other home win0.2%
- 0:03.2%
- 1:16.7%
- 2:23.5%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.2%
- 0:211.2%
- 1:28.8%
- 0:310.0%
- 1:37.9%
- 2:33.1%
- 0:46.7%
- 1:45.3%
- 2:42.1%
- 0:53.6%
- 1:52.8%
- 2:51.1%
- Other away win6.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.3% | 67.5% | 45.8% | 27.0% |
| Under | 13.7% | 32.5% | 54.2% | 73.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.2%
- Over, even
- 28.3%
- Under, odd
- 10.5%
- Under, even
- 22.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 51.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 49.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Estrela Amadora
- 6.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Benfica
- 45.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela Amadora | 45.4% | 35.9% | 14.2% | 4.6% |
| Benfica | 6.8% | 18.3% | 24.6% | 50.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 4.1% | H/D 3.0% | H/A 3.7% |
| Draw | D/H 3.5% | D/D 8.3% | D/A 22.5% |
| Away | A/H 0.7% | A/D 3.0% | A/A 51.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Estrela Amadora 8.3% · Draw 14.4% · Benfica 77.3% · 2.5+ 67.5%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 11.18 | 6.98 | 1.21 | 3.5: 2.03 / 1.82 | +1.75: 2.05 / 1.81 |
| BetOnline.ag | 9.40 | 6.60 | 1.21 | 3.25: 1.81 / 1.93 | +1.75: 1.97 / 1.79 |
| Coolbet | 13.00 | 6.75 | 1.23 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.74 | +2: 1.78 / 2.01 |
| GTbets | 11.99 | 6.82 | 1.25 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.74 | +1.5: 2.20 / 1.66 |
| Marathon Bet | 11.00 | 6.35 | 1.21 | 3.5: 1.99 / 1.76 | +2: 1.72 / 2.03 |
| Matchbook | 13.00 | 7.20 | 1.24 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.82 | +1.75: 2.06 / 1.85 |
| Betsson | 11.50 | 6.10 | 1.21 | 2.5: 1.39 / 2.85 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 11.00 | 6.00 | 1.17 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.68 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 11.50 | 6.10 | 1.21 | 2.5: 1.39 / 2.85 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 11.00 | 6.00 | 1.16 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.61 | – |
| Tipico | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.80 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 11.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.68 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 11.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.68 | – |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | 2.5: 1.36 / 2.88 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Club profiles
Estrela Amadora
A tricolour club from Amadora in the Lisbon area, refounded in 2020 as the heir to the original 1932 club, which plays in the Primeira Liga at the Estádio José Gomes.
- City
- Amadora, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio José Gomes
- Founded
- 1932
- Head coach
- Pepa
Benfica
Lisbon-based Portuguese giant and one of the "Big Three" in the Primeira Liga, known for its youth development and attacking football; it finished third in the league last season and is now coached by Marco Silva.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio da Luz
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Marco Silva
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Estrela Amadora
- L@ Moreirense1-2 · 10-31
- LCasa Pia0-2 · 10-24
- L@ Arouca0-1 · 10-11
- LAcadémico Viseu0-2 · 09-20
- D@ Rio Ave3-3 · 09-14
Benfica
- WAlverca1-0 · 11-02
- W@ Santa Clara2-1 · 10-26
- WVitória Guimarães2-0 · 10-11
- L@ FC Porto1-3 · 09-20
- WGil Vicente3-1 · 09-13
Estrela Amadora 8 days rest · Benfica 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-01-25Benfica 4-0 Estrela AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- 2025-08-16Estrela Amadora 0-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 2025-02-02Estrela Amadora 2-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 2024-08-24Benfica 1-0 Estrela AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- 2024-01-29Estrela Amadora 1-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 2023-08-19Benfica 2-0 Estrela AmadoraPrimeira Liga
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