Eredivisie Β· Matchday 12
Cambuur vs PSV prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Cambuur a 15% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 68% for PSV; the single most likely score is 1:2 (9%) with 3.88 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- PSV
- 68%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- PSV
- 48%
- Correct score
- 1:2 / 1:3
- 17%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 47%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 74%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Cambuur are unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws and 14 goals scored, including 4-0 and 6-1 results. PSV's run is more mixed: a 7-0 win over Willem II, but also defeats at ADO Den Haag and FC Twente. Both sides have had eight days of rest. Cambuur are without captain Amofa, and top scorer El Arguioui is a doubt with a broken nose, with reports conflicting. PSV are chasing top spot.
The market consensus makes PSV clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 17% and a Cambuur win at 15%. Expected goals are 1.21 for Cambuur and 2.67 for PSV. The most likely scores are 1:2 (9%), 1:3 (8%) and 0:2 (7%). The published probabilities put over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 66%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:27 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour PSV (68%); expected goals Cambuur 1.21 β 2.67 PSV.
- Goals look likely: 3.88 expected in total, 74% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:2 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (47%).
- Last five: Cambuur WWDWD (3 wins), PSV WDLWL (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Cambuur
- 1.21
- Expected goals Β· PSV
- 2.67
- Most likely score
- 1:2 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 17% / 31% / 52%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Cambuur | Draw | PSV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 98.3% |
| Home -2 | 1.7% | 4.0% | 94.3% |
| Home -1 | 5.7% | 9.2% | 85.2% |
| Home +1β | 31.8% | 20.5% | 47.6% |
| Home +2 | 52.4% | 19.3% | 28.4% |
| Home +3 | 71.6% | 13.9% | 14.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:02.3%
- 2:01.5%
- 2:14.0%
- 3:00.6%
- 3:11.6%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win1.0%
- 0:02.3%
- 1:16.9%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.9%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.3%
- 0:27.4%
- 1:28.9%
- 0:36.6%
- 1:37.9%
- 2:34.8%
- 0:44.4%
- 1:45.3%
- 2:43.2%
- 0:52.3%
- 1:52.8%
- 2:51.7%
- Other away win7.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 90.1% | 74.3% | 54.2% | 34.7% |
| Under | 9.9% | 25.7% | 45.8% | 65.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 41.9%
- Over, even
- 32.4%
- Under, odd
- 7.5%
- Under, even
- 18.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 65.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 34.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Cambuur
- 6.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· PSV
- 29.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 29.9% | 36.1% | 21.8% | 12.2% |
| PSV | 6.9% | 18.5% | 24.7% | 49.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 8.3% | H/D 4.3% | H/A 4.1% |
| Draw | D/H 5.1% | D/D 8.4% | D/A 17.3% |
| Away | A/H 1.4% | A/D 4.3% | A/A 46.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Cambuur 14.8% Β· Draw 17.0% Β· PSV 68.2% Β· 2.5+ 74.3%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 6.42 | 6.03 | 1.39 | 3.75: 1.89 / 1.98 | +1.5: 1.90 / 1.99 |
| 1xBet | 6.68 | 5.69 | 1.40 | 3.5: 1.75 / 2.13 | +1.5: 1.85 / 2.00 |
| BetAnything | 6.35 | 5.95 | 1.38 | 4: 2.05 / 1.74 | +1.5: 1.85 / 1.88 |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.35 | 5.95 | 1.38 | 4: 2.03 / 1.74 | +1.5: 1.85 / 1.93 |
| Coolbet | 7.00 | 5.50 | 1.38 | 4: 2.06 / 1.74 | +1.5: 1.85 / 1.93 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.40 | 5.45 | 1.36 | 3.5: 1.70 / 2.08 | +1.5: 1.79 / 1.94 |
| Matchbook | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.38 | 3.5: 1.72 / 2.18 | +1.5: 1.90 / 1.98 |
| Betsson | 6.68 | 5.59 | 1.35 | 2.5: 1.25 / 3.61 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 6.20 | 5.40 | 1.41 | 3.5: 1.67 / 2.04 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.25 | 5.10 | 1.32 | 3.5: 1.64 / 2.10 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 6.80 | 5.70 | 1.36 | 2.5: 1.26 / 3.67 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 6.25 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 3.5: 1.56 / 2.00 | β |
| Tipico | 6.50 | 5.70 | 1.35 | 3.5: 1.65 / 2.15 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 7.50 | 5.80 | 1.38 | 3.5: 1.67 / 2.15 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmaker consensus already captures nearly everything relevant here: Cambuur's loss of captain Amofa has been known for weeks, and PSV's long-term absentees are no surprise. The only genuinely open question is whether top scorer El Arguioui plays through his broken nose, with sources conflicting, which slightly weakens Cambuur's attacking threat if he misses out. With both teams scoring freely and PSV chasing top spot, a high-scoring away win remains the most likely outcome.
- Cambuur Β· Captain Jamal Amofa is out for the season after surgery for an injury suffered against PEC Zwolle on 11 October. Sports Mole says Achilles tendon with 9-12 months' recovery, while other sites list a cruciate ligament injury. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Cambuur Β· Top scorer Rafik El Arguioui (6 league goals) had a broken nose and wore a protective mask last game. Sports Mole expects him to be available, but WhoScored and bet365 list him as out, so his status is uncertain. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Cambuur Β· Wout Asselman has only played under-21 minutes since returning from a long injury and is not expected in the squad. Jasper Meijster (hand), Damian Westerhof (shoulder) and Daan Visser (knee) are also listed as absent by some sites. (minor Β· news.bet365.nl)
- Cambuur Β· Cambuur are unbeaten in their last seven Eredivisie games, after beating Go Ahead Eagles 4-0 and Willem II 6-1. They sit around 9th, so there is no relegation or title pressure. (minor Β· footballwhispers.com)
- PSV Β· Bosz expects a largely fit squad for the trip to Leeuwarden. Long-term absentees are Jerdy Schouten (cruciate ligament), Alassane PlΓ©a (surgery), Paul Wanner (foot, not back until after the international break), Adamo Nagalo and Sami Ouaiss (moderate Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- PSV Β· Sam Lammers could return to the squad but his involvement is uncertain. Ricardo Pepi is back after about two months out and is not fully match-fit. (minor Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- PSV Β· Ivan Perisic got a head wound in the 2-1 Champions League defeat to Club Brugge on Wednesday but appears available. PSV could go top of the league with a win. (minor Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- PSV Β· PSV have scored 35 goals in 11 league games, an average of 3.18 per game. Sven Mijnans is expected to lead the attack, and Til has 7 league goals. (minor Β· whoscored.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Cambuur
A member-owned club from Friesland who play in yellow and blue and are local rivals of sc Heerenveen; they came back up to the Eredivisie for 2026β27 after finishing as Eerste Divisie runners-up.
- City
- Leeuwarden, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Kooi Stadion
- Founded
- 1964
- Head coach
- Johan Plat
PSV
Founded as a works team of Philips, PSV is one of the Netherlands' 'big three' clubs, a regular Eredivisie title contender and 1987β88 European Cup winner, known for attacking, possession-based football.
- City
- Eindhoven, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Philips Stadion
- Founded
- 1913
- Head coach
- Peter Bosz
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Cambuur
- WGo Ahead Eagles4-0 Β· 10-31
- W@ Willem II6-1 Β· 10-24
- DAZ Alkmaar2-2 Β· 10-18
- W@ PEC Zwolle1-0 Β· 10-11
- D@ ADO Den Haag1-1 Β· 09-19
PSV
- WWillem II7-0 Β· 10-31
- DFeyenoord1-1 Β· 10-25
- L@ ADO Den Haag1-2 Β· 10-17
- WHeerenveen2-0 Β· 10-09
- L@ FC Twente2-3 Β· 09-20
Cambuur 8 days rest Β· PSV 8 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Eredivisie β