MLS · Matchday 34
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives FC Cincinnati a 36% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 38% for Nashville SC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.20 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- FC Cincinnati / Nashville SC
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- FC Cincinnati
- 62%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 62%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Cincinnati host Nashville on the final day of the MLS regular season (Round 34). The hosts have won three of their last five, while Nashville are unbeaten in theirs (three wins, two draws), including a 4-0 home win over Sporting Kansas City. Rest is 7 days against 6. Cincinnati need a win to avoid the play-in round, but reports say Hadebe, Hagglund, Malatini, Robinson and Malacia are all out. Nashville have the Shield secured and may rotate, though a point would give them the outright points record. They won the last meeting 4-0 in August.
The probabilities are close: Cincinnati 37%, draw 25%, Nashville 38%, a slight lean to the visitors. An open game is expected, with over 2.5 goals at 66%, both teams to score at 68% and expected goals of 1.68–1.71. The most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 1:2 (8%) and 2:1 (8%).
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:07 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: FC Cincinnati 36%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 38% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.20 expected in total, 62% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (23%).
- Last five: FC Cincinnati WDWWL (3 wins), Nashville SC WDWDW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: FC Cincinnati 3 wins, 1 draws, Nashville SC 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · FC Cincinnati
- 1.57
- Expected goals · Nashville SC
- 1.63
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 30% / 39% / 31%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.3% | 4.8% | 92.8% |
| Home -2 | 7.2% | 11.0% | 81.9% |
| Home -1 | 18.1% | 17.9% | 63.9% |
| Home +1≈ | 61.5% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| Home +2 | 80.2% | 11.8% | 8.1% |
| Home +3 | 91.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.4%
- 2:05.0%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:02.6%
- 3:14.3%
- 3:23.5%
- 4:01.0%
- 4:11.7%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.6%
- 0:05.1%
- 1:111.4%
- 2:26.7%
- 3:31.9%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:15.6%
- 0:25.4%
- 1:28.5%
- 0:32.9%
- 1:34.6%
- 2:33.6%
- 0:41.2%
- 1:41.9%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.9% | 62.0% | 39.8% | 21.9% |
| Under | 16.1% | 38.0% | 60.2% | 78.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.9%
- Over, even
- 25.1%
- Under, odd
- 11.0%
- Under, even
- 27.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 64.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 35.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Cincinnati
- 19.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Nashville SC
- 20.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 20.8% | 32.6% | 25.7% | 21.0% |
| Nashville SC | 19.6% | 32.0% | 26.0% | 22.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 21.0% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.8% |
| Draw | D/H 12.4% | D/D 13.7% | D/A 13.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 22.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): FC Cincinnati 36.1% · Draw 25.4% · Nashville SC 38.5% · 2.5+ 62.0%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.68 | 2.51 | 3: 1.88 / 1.99 | 0: 2.03 / 1.87 |
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.75 | 2.52 | 3.5: 2.22 / 1.73 | +1.5: 1.20 / 5.03 |
| BetAnything | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.45 | 3: 1.83 / 2.00 | 0: 1.96 / 1.86 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.66 | 3.83 | 2.51 | 3: 1.83 / 1.95 | 0: 1.95 / 1.86 |
| Coolbet | 2.60 | 3.85 | 2.40 | 3: 1.82 / 1.96 | +1: 1.27 / 3.67 |
| GTbets | 2.57 | 3.77 | 2.56 | 3.5: 2.26 / 1.65 | +0.5: 1.53 / 2.45 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.42 | 3.5: 2.25 / 1.60 | 0: 1.93 / 1.80 |
| Matchbook | 2.76 | 3.85 | 2.50 | 3.5: 2.44 / 1.64 | 0: 2.04 / 1.86 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.46 | 3.5: 2.31 / 1.57 | +0.5: 1.54 / 2.38 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 2.5: 1.52 / 2.48 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.55 | 3.5: 2.23 / 1.63 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 2.5: 1.52 / 2.48 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.33 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.51 | – |
| Tipico | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 3.5: 2.15 / 1.60 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Cincinnati have the stronger motivation on Decision Day, needing a win to avoid the play-in round, but they arrive with a patched-up defence after Hadebe and Hagglund joined Malatini, Robinson and Malacia on the treatment table. Nashville have the Shield wrapped up and may rotate, yet a single point would hand them the outright MLS points record and they look close to full strength. We sit very near the market with a slight lean to the visitors and an open, goal-heavy game.
- FC Cincinnati · Cincinnati host Nashville on Decision Day. A win would avoid the playoff play-in round and improve their seeding. They are already in the playoffs for a fifth straight season. (moderate · yahoo.com)
- Nashville SC · Nashville have already won the Supporters' Shield and have nothing to play for in the standings. They have 74 points and need one more to set the outright MLS single-season points record. Playoffs start Nov 22, so some rotation is possible. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- FC Cincinnati · Julián Malatini and Miles Robinson are out. Tyrell Malacia (ankle) has missed three games and is unlikely to be fit. (major · sportsmole.co.uk)
- FC Cincinnati · Teenage Hadebe was withdrawn injured against Philadelphia and is doubtful. SixOneFive lists Nick Hagglund in concussion protocol, while WhoScored's predicted XI includes Hagglund. (moderate · sixonefivesoccer.com)
- FC Cincinnati · Evander is in contention to start after coming on at half-time last week. Samuel Gidi may drop into a back three, and Ayoub Jabbari is likely to start. (moderate · whoscored.com)
- FC Cincinnati · Samuel Gidi and Obinna Nwobodo are one yellow card from a suspension. (minor · sixonefivesoccer.com)
- Nashville SC · Sports Mole reports no fresh injury concerns for Nashville, and Cincinnati Soccer Talk calls the roster healthy. WhoScored lists Owen Presthus and Famara Camara as out, so the sources conflict. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Nashville SC · Goalkeeper Brian Schwake and Reed Baker-Whiting have international call-ups. The source does not say whether they miss this match. Matthew Corcoran has been called up to the US U23 squad. (minor · yahoo.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
FC Cincinnati
An MLS club known as the Orange and Blue, they won the 2023 Supporters' Shield and clinched a place in the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs.
- City
- Cincinnati, Ohio, United States
- Stadium
- TQL Stadium
- Founded
- 2015
- Head coach
- Pat Noonan
Nashville SC
Nashville SC, nicknamed the Boys in Gold, joined MLS in 2020 and topped the Eastern Conference and the overall table in the 2026 regular season under B. J. Callaghan.
- City
- Nashville, Tennessee, United States
- Stadium
- Geodis Park
- Founded
- 2016
- Head coach
- B. J. Callaghan
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
FC Cincinnati
- WPhiladelphia Union1-0 · 10-31
- D@ Inter Miami2-2 · 10-28
- W@ D.C. United2-0 · 10-24
- WD.C. United2-1 · 10-21
- LColumbus Crew0-2 · 10-18
Nashville SC
- WNew York Red Bulls3-2 · 11-01
- DPhiladelphia Union0-0 · 10-29
- W@ CF Montréal2-0 · 10-24
- D@ San Jose Earthquakes1-1 · 10-18
- WSporting Kansas City4-0 · 10-15
FC Cincinnati 7 days rest · Nashville SC 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-08-30Nashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMLS
- 2025-09-13FC Cincinnati 2-1 Nashville SCMLS
- 2025-03-30Nashville SC 1-2 FC CincinnatiMLS
- 2024-09-22Nashville SC 2-2 FC CincinnatiMLS
- 2024-05-29FC Cincinnati 0-2 Nashville SCMLS
- 2023-07-15FC Cincinnati 3-1 Nashville SCMLS