Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Marseille vs Toulouse prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Marseille win 50%, draw 24%, Toulouse win 26%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Marseille" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Marseille | 50.0% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 7.4% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 21.9% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 38.6% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 30.3% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Marseille
- 50%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Toulouse
- 50%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 61%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Marseille (50%); expected goals Marseille 1.87 – 1.30 Toulouse.
- Goals look likely: 3.17 expected in total, 61% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Marseille WWWLL (3 wins), Toulouse DWDWD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Marseille
- 1.87
- Expected goals · Toulouse
- 1.30
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 38% / 39% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 5.1% | 8.2% | 86.7% |
| Home -2 | 13.3% | 15.5% | 71.3% |
| Home -1≈ | 28.7% | 21.3% | 50.0% |
| Home +1 | 74.3% | 14.5% | 11.2% |
| Home +2 | 88.8% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Home +3 | 96.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.0%
- 2:07.4%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:04.6%
- 3:16.0%
- 3:23.9%
- 4:02.2%
- 4:12.8%
- 4:21.8%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:11.0%
- 5:20.7%
- Other home win2.4%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:111.0%
- 2:26.2%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:14.6%
- 0:23.5%
- 1:26.6%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.9%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.4% | 61.4% | 39.1% | 21.4% |
| Under | 16.6% | 38.6% | 60.9% | 78.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.6%
- Over, even
- 24.8%
- Under, odd
- 11.6%
- Under, even
- 27.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Marseille
- 27.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Toulouse
- 15.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 15.4% | 28.8% | 27.0% | 28.9% |
| Toulouse | 27.3% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 30.3% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 16.5% | D/D 13.3% | D/A 9.5% |
| Away | A/H 3.3% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 14.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Marseille
Marseille (OM) is a historic Ligue 1 club with a huge fanbase and a Mediterranean identity, and it finished 5th in 2025–26 to qualify for the Europa League.
- City
- Marseille, France
- Stadium
- Stade Vélodrome
- Founded
- 1899
Toulouse
Toulouse are a southern French club, owned by RedBird Capital, who won the 2022–23 Coupe de France and are known for developing young players in Ligue 1.
- City
- Toulouse, France
- Stadium
- Stadium de Toulouse
- Founded
- 1937
- Head coach
- Jens Berthel Askou
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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