J1 League Β· Matchday 12
Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Kawasaki Frontale win 50%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama win 25%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 Fagiano Okayama. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Kawasaki Frontale" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Kawasaki Frontale | 49.8% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 9.6% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.3% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 28.6% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Kawasaki Frontale / Draw
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Fagiano Okayama
- 50%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Kawasaki Frontale (50%); expected goals Kawasaki Frontale 1.70 β 1.13 Fagiano Okayama.
- 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: Kawasaki Frontale WWLDW (3 wins), Fagiano Okayama WLLLW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Kawasaki Frontale
- 1.70
- Expected goals Β· Fagiano Okayama
- 1.13
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 44% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.2% | 7.6% | 88.1% |
| Home -2 | 11.9% | 15.4% | 72.7% |
| Home -1β | 27.3% | 22.5% | 50.2% |
| Home +1 | 75.4% | 14.8% | 9.9% |
| Home +2 | 90.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Home +3 | 97.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.2%
- 2:08.5%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:04.8%
- 3:15.5%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:02.0%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.5%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.1%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.9%
- 0:23.8%
- 1:26.4%
- 0:31.4%
- 1:32.4%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.2% | 53.8% | 31.5% | 15.7% |
| Under | 21.8% | 46.2% | 68.5% | 84.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.1%
- Over, even
- 20.7%
- Under, odd
- 15.2%
- Under, even
- 31.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Kawasaki Frontale
- 32.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Fagiano Okayama
- 18.3%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 18.3% | 31.1% | 26.4% | 24.2% |
| Fagiano Okayama | 32.2% | 36.5% | 20.7% | 10.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 28.6% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 18.2% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 10.0% |
| Away | A/H 3.0% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 12.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Kawasaki Frontale
Based in Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Frontale is a four-time J1 League champion (2017, 2018, 2020, 2021) known for a possession-based, attacking style.
- City
- Kawasaki, Japan
- Stadium
- Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu
- Founded
- 1955
- Head coach
- Shigetoshi Hasebe
Fagiano Okayama
Okayama's J1 League club, named after the Italian word for pheasant, who reached the top flight in 2025 and often line up in a 3-4-2-1 under Takashi Kiyama.
- City
- Okayama, Japan
- Stadium
- JFE Harenokuni Stadium
- Founded
- 1975
- Head coach
- Takashi Kiyama
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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