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AI Prediction Track Record

Data updated:

GoalPulse's shadow AI model has made 92 pre-kickoff forecasts at World Cup 2026, locked immutably before each match started. 62 of them (67%) picked the eventual result. Every row below — including the misses — is scored from those frozen snapshots.

Editorial shadow-model analysis for information only. Not betting odds, not betting advice.

Favorite hit rate
67%

How often the pre-kickoff favorite matched the final result (win/draw/win).

Matches scored
92

Forecasts locked before kickoff with a sha256 receipt, then scored at full time.

Mean Brier score
0.480

Probability accuracy across home/draw/away (0 is perfect, 2 is worst; lower is better).

Calibration — when we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?

Scored forecasts grouped by the stated pre-kickoff favorite probability. In a well-calibrated model, the actual hit rate tracks the stated probability — compare the two right-hand columns row by row.

Stated probabilityMatchesAvg statedActual hit rate
33–45%1342%15%
45–55%2351%74%
55–65%2161%71%
65–75%2370%83%
75–100%1279%75%

Against the baselines

Same 92 matches, three forecasters: our model, the pre-kickoff market closing consensus (margin removed), and a uniform 1-in-3 guess. The market consensus is the benchmark professional models chase — we publish this comparison either way.

GoalPulse model
0.480
Market closing consensus
0.445◆
Uniform 1-in-3 guess
0.667

Brier score across home/draw/away: 0 is perfect, 2 is worst, lower is better. Restricted to matches with a strictly pre-kickoff closing consensus snapshot.

Where the model was wrong

Transparency cuts both ways. These are the matches where the pre-kickoff favorite did not happen — shown with the same prominence as the hits.

Switzerland – Colombia0–0Mexico – England2–3Brazil – Norway1–2Australia – Egypt1–1Netherlands – Morocco1–1Germany – Paraguay1–1Algeria – Austria3–3Colombia – Portugal0–0DR Congo – Uzbekistan3–1Egypt – Iran1–1Cape Verde – Saudi Arabia0–0Paraguay – Australia0–0Japan – Sweden1–1Ecuador – Germany2–1South Africa – South Korea1–0England – Ghana0–0Uruguay – Cape Verde2–2Belgium – Iran0–0Ecuador – Curaçao0–0Turkey – Paraguay0–1United States – Australia2–0Czech Republic – South Africa1–1Ghana – Panama1–0Portugal – DR Congo1–1Iran – New Zealand2–2Saudi Arabia – Uruguay1–1Belgium – Egypt1–1Spain – Cape Verde0–0Ivory Coast – Ecuador1–0Netherlands – Japan2–2
All scored pre-kickoff forecasts, newest first
MatchKickoffPre-match probabilitiesResultVerdict
England – ArgentinaJul 1527% / 20% / 54%→ Away win1–2Away win✓ Hit
France – SpainJul 1433% / 21% / 46%→ Away win0–2Away win✓ Hit
Argentina – SwitzerlandJul 1266% / 17% / 16%→ Home win3–1Home win✓ Hit
Norway – EnglandJul 1130% / 20% / 50%→ Away win1–2Away win✓ Hit
Spain – BelgiumJul 1064% / 18% / 18%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
France – MoroccoJul 955% / 19% / 26%→ Home win2–0Home win✓ Hit
Switzerland – ColombiaJul 729% / 20% / 51%→ Away win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Argentina – EgyptJul 776% / 15% / 9%→ Home win3–2Home win✓ Hit
United States – BelgiumJul 728% / 20% / 52%→ Away win1–4Away win✓ Hit
Portugal – SpainJul 626% / 20% / 54%→ Away win0–1Away win✓ Hit
Mexico – EnglandJul 644% / 21% / 34%→ Home win2–3Away win✗ Miss
Brazil – NorwayJul 555% / 19% / 26%→ Home win1–2Away win✗ Miss
Paraguay – FranceJul 416% / 17% / 67%→ Away win0–1Away win✓ Hit
Canada – MoroccoJul 426% / 19% / 55%→ Away win0–3Away win✓ Hit
Colombia – GhanaJul 479% / 14% / 7%→ Home win1–0Home win✓ Hit
Argentina – Cape VerdeJul 383% / 13% / 4%→ Home win3–2Home win✓ Hit
Australia – EgyptJul 344% / 21% / 35%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Portugal – CroatiaJul 250% / 20% / 30%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
United States – Bosnia and HerzegovinaJul 262% / 18% / 20%→ Home win2–0Home win✓ Hit
Belgium – SenegalJul 148% / 21% / 31%→ Home win3–2Home win✓ Hit
England – DR CongoJul 171% / 16% / 13%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
Mexico – EcuadorJul 151% / 20% / 29%→ Home win2–0Home win✓ Hit
France – SwedenJun 3074% / 15% / 10%→ Home win3–0Home win✓ Hit
Ivory Coast – NorwayJun 3028% / 20% / 53%→ Away win1–2Away win✓ Hit
Netherlands – MoroccoJun 3040% / 22% / 38%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Germany – ParaguayJun 2954% / 20% / 27%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Brazil – JapanJun 2950% / 20% / 30%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
South Africa – CanadaJun 2821% / 18% / 61%→ Away win0–1Away win✓ Hit
Jordan – ArgentinaJun 285% / 13% / 82%→ Away win1–3Away win✓ Hit
Algeria – AustriaJun 2839% / 22% / 38%→ Home win3–3Draw✗ Miss
Colombia – PortugalJun 2740% / 22% / 38%→ Home win0–0Draw✗ Miss
DR Congo – UzbekistanJun 2735% / 21% / 44%→ Away win3–1Home win✗ Miss
Panama – EnglandJun 2714% / 16% / 70%→ Away win0–2Away win✓ Hit
Croatia – GhanaJun 2771% / 16% / 12%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
New Zealand – BelgiumJun 2716% / 17% / 67%→ Away win1–5Away win✓ Hit
Egypt – IranJun 2732% / 21% / 48%→ Away win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Uruguay – SpainJun 2717% / 17% / 66%→ Away win0–1Away win✓ Hit
Cape Verde – Saudi ArabiaJun 2736% / 22% / 43%→ Away win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Norway – FranceJun 2623% / 19% / 58%→ Away win1–4Away win✓ Hit
Senegal – IraqJun 2657% / 19% / 24%→ Home win5–0Home win✓ Hit
Turkey – United StatesJun 2648% / 21% / 31%→ Home win3–2Home win✓ Hit
Paraguay – AustraliaJun 2636% / 22% / 43%→ Away win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Tunisia – NetherlandsJun 2512% / 16% / 72%→ Away win1–3Away win✓ Hit
Japan – SwedenJun 2563% / 18% / 19%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Ecuador – GermanyJun 2535% / 21% / 44%→ Away win2–1Home win✗ Miss
Curaçao – Ivory CoastJun 2514% / 17% / 69%→ Away win0–2Away win✓ Hit
Czech Republic – MexicoJun 2519% / 18% / 63%→ Away win0–3Away win✓ Hit
South Africa – South KoreaJun 2516% / 17% / 66%→ Away win1–0Home win✗ Miss
Scotland – BrazilJun 2417% / 17% / 66%→ Away win0–3Away win✓ Hit
Morocco – HaitiJun 2473% / 16% / 12%→ Home win4–2Home win✓ Hit
Switzerland – CanadaJun 2444% / 21% / 34%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
Bosnia and Herzegovina – QatarJun 2450% / 20% / 30%→ Home win3–1Home win✓ Hit
Colombia – DR CongoJun 2473% / 16% / 11%→ Home win1–0Home win✓ Hit
Panama – CroatiaJun 2323% / 19% / 59%→ Away win0–1Away win✓ Hit
England – GhanaJun 2379% / 14% / 7%→ Home win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Portugal – UzbekistanJun 2368% / 17% / 15%→ Home win5–0Home win✓ Hit
Jordan – AlgeriaJun 2323% / 19% / 59%→ Away win1–2Away win✓ Hit
Norway – SenegalJun 2349% / 21% / 31%→ Home win3–2Home win✓ Hit
France – IraqJun 2277% / 15% / 8%→ Home win3–0Home win✓ Hit
Argentina – AustriaJun 2271% / 16% / 13%→ Home win2–0Home win✓ Hit
New Zealand – EgyptJun 2228% / 20% / 52%→ Away win1–3Away win✓ Hit
Uruguay – Cape VerdeJun 2170% / 16% / 14%→ Home win2–2Draw✗ Miss
Belgium – IranJun 2147% / 21% / 32%→ Home win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Spain – Saudi ArabiaJun 2182% / 13% / 5%→ Home win4–0Home win✓ Hit
Tunisia – JapanJun 2113% / 16% / 70%→ Away win0–4Away win✓ Hit
Ecuador – CuraçaoJun 2179% / 14% / 7%→ Home win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Germany – Ivory CoastJun 2060% / 18% / 21%→ Home win2–1Home win✓ Hit
Netherlands – SwedenJun 2061% / 18% / 21%→ Home win5–1Home win✓ Hit
Turkey – ParaguayJun 2047% / 21% / 32%→ Home win0–1Away win✗ Miss
Brazil – HaitiJun 2078% / 15% / 8%→ Home win3–0Home win✓ Hit
Scotland – MoroccoJun 1923% / 19% / 58%→ Away win0–1Away win✓ Hit
United States – AustraliaJun 1934% / 21% / 44%→ Away win2–0Home win✗ Miss
Mexico – South KoreaJun 1961% / 18% / 21%→ Home win1–0Home win✓ Hit
Canada – QatarJun 1878% / 15% / 8%→ Home win6–0Home win✓ Hit
Switzerland – Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 1868% / 17% / 15%→ Home win4–1Home win✓ Hit
Czech Republic – South AfricaJun 1856% / 19% / 25%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Uzbekistan – ColombiaJun 1815% / 17% / 68%→ Away win1–3Away win✓ Hit
Ghana – PanamaJun 1719% / 18% / 63%→ Away win1–0Home win✗ Miss
England – CroatiaJun 1749% / 20% / 31%→ Home win4–2Home win✓ Hit
Portugal – DR CongoJun 1774% / 16% / 11%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Austria – JordanJun 1757% / 19% / 24%→ Home win3–1Home win✓ Hit
Argentina – AlgeriaJun 1771% / 16% / 13%→ Home win3–0Home win✓ Hit
Iraq – NorwayJun 1620% / 18% / 62%→ Away win1–4Away win✓ Hit
France – SenegalJun 1664% / 18% / 19%→ Home win3–1Home win✓ Hit
Iran – New ZealandJun 1662% / 18% / 20%→ Home win2–2Draw✗ Miss
Saudi Arabia – UruguayJun 1514% / 17% / 70%→ Away win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Belgium – EgyptJun 1558% / 19% / 23%→ Home win1–1Draw✗ Miss
Spain – Cape VerdeJun 1584% / 13% / 3%→ Home win0–0Draw✗ Miss
Sweden – TunisiaJun 1543% / 21% / 35%→ Home win5–1Home win✓ Hit
Ivory Coast – EcuadorJun 1419% / 18% / 63%→ Away win1–0Home win✗ Miss
Netherlands – JapanJun 1439% / 22% / 39%→ Home win2–2Draw✗ Miss
Germany – CuraçaoJun 1477% / 15% / 7%→ Home win7–1Home win✓ Hit

Methodology

Forecasts come from a calibrated Elo baseline (win/draw/away probabilities). Before kickoff, each forecast is written to an immutable snapshot with a sha256 receipt; after full time it is scored against the official result. Finished forecasts are never edited or re-run. This page reads the same hourly evidence feed our pipeline publishes.

Full model card and methodology

Editorial shadow-model analysis for information only. Not betting odds, not betting advice.