Conference League · Matchday 3

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Universitatea Craiova
WDLDW
2 - 0
HT 2-0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
DDDDW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Universitatea Craiova win 51%, draw 25%, Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 24%; the final score was 2:0.

Full time: Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Universitatea Craiova" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultUniversitatea Craiova50.8%most likely
Correct score2:08.7%#4 of 31
Total goals2 goals24.2%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.546.3%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeH/H31.1%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Universitatea Craiova
51%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
49%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
31%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
54%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Universitatea Craiova (51%); expected goals Universitatea Craiova 1.71 – 1.11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
  • 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (31%).
  • Last five: Universitatea Craiova WDLDW (2 wins), Egnatia Rrogozhinë DDDDW (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Universitatea Craiova 51%Draw 25%Egnatia Rrogozhinë 24%

No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals · Universitatea Craiova
1.71
Expected goals · Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.11
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
38% / 41% / 21%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Universitatea CraiovaDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Home -34.4%7.8%87.7%
Home -212.3%15.7%72.0%
Home -1≈28.0%22.9%49.2%
Home +175.9%14.7%9.5%
Home +290.5%6.6%2.8%
Home +397.2%2.2%0.7%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Universitatea Craiova · Home
  • 1:09.6%
  • 2:08.7%
  • 2:19.7%
  • 3:05.0%
  • 3:15.5%
  • 3:23.1%
  • 4:02.1%
  • 4:12.4%
  • 4:21.3%
  • 5:00.7%
  • 5:10.8%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win1.5%
Draw
  • 0:06.5%
  • 1:111.9%
  • 2:25.4%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.1%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë · Away
  • 0:16.0%
  • 0:23.7%
  • 1:26.3%
  • 0:31.4%
  • 1:32.3%
  • 2:32.0%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.7%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.5%
1
15.6%
2
24.2%
3
22.3%
4
15.8%
5
8.9%
6
4.2%
7+
2.6%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over77.9%53.7%31.4%15.7%
Under22.1%46.3%68.6%84.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
33.1%
Over, even
20.6%
Under, odd
15.6%
Under, even
30.7%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
55.6%
Both teams to score: No
44.4%
Clean-sheet probability · Universitatea Craiova
32.8%
Clean-sheet probability · Egnatia Rrogozhinë
18.0%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Universitatea Craiova18.0%30.9%26.5%24.6%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë32.8%36.6%20.4%10.2%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
31.1%
H/D
5.1%
H/A
1.6%
Draw
D/H
16.9%
D/D
14.7%
D/A
9.1%
Away
A/H
2.9%
A/D
5.1%
A/A
13.4%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Universitatea Craiova

Romanian club from Craiova, nicknamed 'The Pride of Oltenia', that plays in Liga I and claims the honours of the historic Universitatea Craiova, including four league titles.

City
Craiova, Romania
Stadium
Ion Oblemenco Stadium
Founded
1948
Head coach
Filipe Coelho

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

A small-town Albanian club from Rrogozhinë that has become a dominant force in Kategoria Superiore, winning the title in 2024–25 and 2025–26 and competing in UEFA qualifying.

City
Rrogozhinë, Albania
Stadium
Egnatia Arena
Head coach
Nevil Dede

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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