Conference League · Matchday 3
Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Universitatea Craiova win 51%, draw 25%, Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 24%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Universitatea Craiova" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Universitatea Craiova | 50.8% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 8.7% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.2% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.3% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 31.1% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Universitatea Craiova
- 51%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 49%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 31%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Universitatea Craiova (51%); expected goals Universitatea Craiova 1.71 – 1.11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
- 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (31%).
- Last five: Universitatea Craiova WDLDW (2 wins), Egnatia Rrogozhinë DDDDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Universitatea Craiova
- 1.71
- Expected goals · Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 1.11
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 38% / 41% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | Draw | Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.4% | 7.8% | 87.7% |
| Home -2 | 12.3% | 15.7% | 72.0% |
| Home -1≈ | 28.0% | 22.9% | 49.2% |
| Home +1 | 75.9% | 14.7% | 9.5% |
| Home +2 | 90.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Home +3 | 97.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.6%
- 2:08.7%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:05.0%
- 3:15.5%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:02.1%
- 4:12.4%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.5%
- 0:06.5%
- 1:111.9%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.0%
- 0:23.7%
- 1:26.3%
- 0:31.4%
- 1:32.3%
- 2:32.0%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.9% | 53.7% | 31.4% | 15.7% |
| Under | 22.1% | 46.3% | 68.6% | 84.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.1%
- Over, even
- 20.6%
- Under, odd
- 15.6%
- Under, even
- 30.7%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Universitatea Craiova
- 32.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 18.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 18.0% | 30.9% | 26.5% | 24.6% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 32.8% | 36.6% | 20.4% | 10.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 31.1% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 16.9% | D/D 14.7% | D/A 9.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.9% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 13.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Universitatea Craiova
Romanian club from Craiova, nicknamed 'The Pride of Oltenia', that plays in Liga I and claims the honours of the historic Universitatea Craiova, including four league titles.
- City
- Craiova, Romania
- Stadium
- Ion Oblemenco Stadium
- Founded
- 1948
- Head coach
- Filipe Coelho
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
A small-town Albanian club from Rrogozhinë that has become a dominant force in Kategoria Superiore, winning the title in 2024–25 and 2025–26 and competing in UEFA qualifying.
- City
- Rrogozhinë, Albania
- Stadium
- Egnatia Arena
- Head coach
- Nevil Dede
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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