J1 League Β· Matchday 13
Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Kashima Antlers win 56%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka win 20%; the final score was 4:1.
Full time: Kashima Antlers 4-1 Cerezo Osaka. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Kashima Antlers" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Kashima Antlers | 56.3% | most likely |
| Correct score | 4:1 | 3.7% | #12 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 12.5% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 32.8% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Kashima Antlers
- 56%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Cerezo Osaka
- 44%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 43%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 33%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 66%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Kashima Antlers (56%); expected goals Kashima Antlers 2.14 β 1.24 Cerezo Osaka.
- Goals look likely: 3.39 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (33%).
- Last five: Kashima Antlers LDWWD (2 wins), Cerezo Osaka DDLDD (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Kashima Antlers
- 2.14
- Expected goals Β· Cerezo Osaka
- 1.24
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 40% / 41% / 19%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Kashima Antlers | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 7.8% | 10.4% | 81.8% |
| Home -2 | 18.2% | 17.4% | 64.4% |
| Home -1β | 35.6% | 20.7% | 43.7% |
| Home +1 | 80.1% | 11.3% | 8.6% |
| Home +2 | 91.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Home +3 | 97.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.6%
- 2:07.8%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:05.5%
- 3:16.9%
- 3:24.3%
- 4:03.0%
- 4:13.7%
- 4:22.3%
- 5:01.3%
- 5:11.6%
- 5:21.0%
- Other home win3.7%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:110.6%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.8%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:12.6%
- 0:22.6%
- 1:25.6%
- 0:31.1%
- 1:32.3%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.8% | 65.7% | 43.8% | 25.3% |
| Under | 13.2% | 34.3% | 56.2% | 74.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.5%
- Over, even
- 27.3%
- Under, odd
- 8.2%
- Under, even
- 26.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 64.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 35.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Kashima Antlers
- 28.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Cerezo Osaka
- 11.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 11.7% | 25.2% | 26.9% | 36.2% |
| Cerezo Osaka | 28.8% | 35.9% | 22.3% | 13.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 32.8% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 19.5% | D/D 13.0% | D/A 8.0% |
| Away | A/H 4.0% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 10.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Kashima Antlers
One of the most decorated clubs in Japanese football, Kashima Antlers are known for a disciplined, competitive identity and were 6th in the J1 League at the latest update.
- City
- Kashima, Ibaraki, Japan
- Stadium
- Mercari Stadium (Kashima Soccer Stadium)
- Founded
- 1947
- Head coach
- Toru Oniki
Cerezo Osaka
An Osaka club known for its cherry-blossom pink colours and a strong youth academy, it won the 2017 Emperor's Cup and League Cup and plays in J1 League under Spanish coach Pablo MachΓn.
- City
- Osaka, Japan
- Stadium
- Yodoko Sakura Stadium
- Founded
- 1957
- Head coach
- Pablo MachΓn
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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