Serie A · Matchday 11
Inter vs Como prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Inter a 50% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 26% for Como; the single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) with 3.29 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Inter
- 50%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Como
- 50%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 43%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 31%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 64%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Inter host Como at San Siro in Serie A Matchday 11, with eight days of rest against Como's seven. Inter have won four of their last five, scoring 11, with a 1-3 defeat at AC Milan the exception. They are without Lautaro Martínez, but Bastoni returns. Como have four wins and a 0-0 draw with Roma in their last five and conceded only twice, though their absentee list includes Chalobah and several attackers. Inter won the last three meetings, including 4-3 in April.
The published probabilities make Inter favourites at 50%, with the draw at 23% and a Como win at 26%. Expected goals are 1.93–1.36, with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring each at 64%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (10%), 2:1 (9%) and 2:0 (7%).
Written Sat, Nov 7, 03:24 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Inter (50%); expected goals Inter 1.93 – 1.36 Como.
- Goals look likely: 3.29 expected in total, 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (31%).
- Last five: Inter LWWWW (4 wins), Como WWWWD (4 wins).
- Last 3 meetings in the dataset: Inter 3 wins, 0 draws, Como 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Inter
- 1.93
- Expected goals · Como
- 1.36
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 39% / 37% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Inter | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 5.3% | 8.3% | 86.4% |
| Home -2 | 13.6% | 15.4% | 71.0% |
| Home -1≈ | 29.0% | 21.2% | 49.8% |
| Home +1 | 73.6% | 14.7% | 11.7% |
| Home +2 | 88.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| Home +3 | 96.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.6%
- 2:07.0%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:04.5%
- 3:16.1%
- 3:24.1%
- 4:02.2%
- 4:12.9%
- 4:22.0%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:11.1%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win2.8%
- 0:04.4%
- 1:110.4%
- 2:26.4%
- 3:31.9%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:14.4%
- 0:23.4%
- 1:26.7%
- 0:31.6%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.9%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84.6% | 63.8% | 41.7% | 23.5% |
| Under | 15.4% | 36.2% | 58.3% | 76.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.6%
- Over, even
- 26.1%
- Under, odd
- 11.0%
- Under, even
- 25.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 64.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 35.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Inter
- 25.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Como
- 14.5%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 14.5% | 28.0% | 27.0% | 30.4% |
| Como | 25.7% | 34.9% | 23.7% | 15.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 31.4% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 15.4% | D/D 12.5% | D/A 9.1% |
| Away | A/H 3.3% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 15.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Inter 50.2% · Draw 23.4% · Como 26.4% · 2.5+ 63.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 4.18 | 3.68 | 3.25: 2.02 / 1.88 | -0.5: 1.93 / 1.98 |
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 4.21 | 3.73 | 3.5: 2.28 / 1.73 | 0: 1.51 / 2.82 |
| BetAnything | 1.91 | 4.27 | 3.55 | 3.25: 1.96 / 1.86 | -0.5: 1.91 / 1.91 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.94 | 4.10 | 3.62 | 3: 1.74 / 2.05 | -0.5: 1.94 / 1.89 |
| Coolbet | 1.93 | 4.20 | 3.65 | 3: 1.79 / 2.13 | -1: 2.61 / 1.55 |
| GTbets | 1.90 | 4.07 | 3.63 | 3.5: 2.22 / 1.64 | -0.5: 1.88 / 1.89 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93 | 4.15 | 3.68 | 3.5: 2.21 / 1.68 | -1: 2.53 / 1.52 |
| Matchbook | 1.97 | 4.20 | 3.75 | 3.5: 2.24 / 1.74 | -0.5: 1.93 / 1.98 |
| Betsson | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 2.5: 1.48 / 2.69 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 1.93 | 3.95 | 3.55 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.63 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.81 | 3.80 | 3.65 | 3.5: 2.25 / 1.64 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.90 | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.5: 1.47 / 2.65 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.79 | 3.70 | 3.55 | 3.5: 2.12 / 1.54 | – |
| Tipico | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.70 | 3.5: 2.05 / 1.70 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this match is close to what the market already reflects: Inter are without Lautaro Martínez, but that news broke two days before kick-off and bookmakers have had time to absorb it, while Como arrive with their own long absentee list including Chalobah and several attackers. Como's form and defensive solidity make them a genuine threat, yet Inter's depth and Bastoni's return keep them clear favourites at San Siro. With Inter's top scorer missing and Como conceding so little, a slightly more cautious stance on goals seems reasonable, though not a dramatic one.
- Inter · Lautaro Martínez is out injured and is not expected back until after the international break. (major · sport.sky.it)
- Inter · Luis Henrique is also unavailable through injury. (minor · sport.sky.it)
- Inter · Bastoni returns after serving his suspension. Stones and Jones are back in training and are likely to start on the bench. (moderate · sportitalia.it)
- Inter · Inter lost the derby 1-3 to AC Milan and then beat Feyenoord in the Champions League. They are set to rotate on the wings and in midfield: Spence and Dimarco on the flanks, Zielinski or Sucic in midfield. (moderate · sport.sky.it)
- Inter · Pio Esposito is favoured over Bonny to partner Thuram in attack. (moderate · goal.com)
- Como · Chalobah, Diao, Addai, Jesús Rodríguez and Kean are unavailable. Chalobah was hoped to be back but will not play. (major · sport.sky.it)
- Como · Como beat Lens 9-1 in the Champions League on 4 November, which brings fatigue concerns. Fabregas had only 15 outfield players available for that game. (moderate · sport.sky.it)
- Como · Como are on a six-game winning run in all competitions and have a club-record 23 points from 10 Serie A games. Their 8 goals conceded is joint-best in the league. (moderate · flashscore.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Inter
One of Italy's most successful clubs, the Nerazzurri share San Siro with AC Milan and finished 2025–26 top of Serie A and Coppa Italia winners under Cristian Chivu.
- City
- Milan, Italy
- Stadium
- San Siro (Stadio Giuseppe Meazza)
- Founded
- 1908
- Head coach
- Cristian Chivu
Como
Lakeside Lombardy club in royal blue, owned by the Hartono brothers' Djarum Group, who finished 4th in Serie A in 2025–26 to reach the Champions League for the first time under possession-based coach Cesc Fàbregas.
- City
- Como, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Cesc Fàbregas
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Inter
- L@ AC Milan1-3 · 10-31
- W@ Venezia2-0 · 10-28
- WFiorentina2-1 · 10-25
- W@ Bologna3-1 · 10-17
- WParma3-0 · 10-10
Como
- WVenezia1-0 · 11-01
- W@ Torino3-1 · 10-27
- WSassuolo2-0 · 10-24
- W@ Fiorentina3-1 · 10-18
- DRoma0-0 · 10-11
Inter 8 days rest · Como 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-12Como 3-4 InterSerie A
- 2025-12-06Inter 4-0 ComoSerie A
- 2024-12-23Inter 2-0 ComoSerie A
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