Europa League · Matchday 4

Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Torreense
LLW
3 - 2
HT 1-1
Ararat-Armenia
LLLWD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Torreense win 50%, draw 25%, Ararat-Armenia win 24%; the final score was 3:2.

Full time: Torreense 3-2 Ararat-Armenia. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Torreense" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultTorreense50.4%most likely
Correct score3:23.1%#12 of 31
Total goals5 goals8.9%#5 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.553.6%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/H16.8%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Torreense
50%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Ararat-Armenia
50%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
22%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
31%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
54%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Torreense (50%); expected goals Torreense 1.70 – 1.12 Ararat-Armenia.
  • 2.82 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (31%).
  • Last five: Torreense LLW (1 wins), Ararat-Armenia LLLWD (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Torreense 50%Draw 25%Ararat-Armenia 24%

No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals · Torreense
1.70
Expected goals · Ararat-Armenia
1.12
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
38% / 41% / 22%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2TorreenseDrawArarat-Armenia
Home -34.3%7.7%88.0%
Home -212.0%15.6%72.4%
Home -1≈27.6%22.8%49.6%
Home +175.5%14.8%9.7%
Home +290.3%6.8%2.9%
Home +397.1%2.2%0.7%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Torreense · Home
  • 1:09.5%
  • 2:08.6%
  • 2:19.7%
  • 3:04.9%
  • 3:15.5%
  • 3:23.1%
  • 4:02.1%
  • 4:12.3%
  • 4:21.3%
  • 5:00.7%
  • 5:10.8%
  • 5:20.4%
  • Other home win1.5%
Draw
  • 0:06.5%
  • 1:111.9%
  • 2:25.4%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.1%
Ararat-Armenia · Away
  • 0:16.1%
  • 0:23.7%
  • 1:26.4%
  • 0:31.4%
  • 1:32.4%
  • 2:32.0%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.7%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.5%
1
15.6%
2
24.2%
3
22.3%
4
15.7%
5
8.9%
6
4.2%
7+
2.5%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over77.9%53.6%31.3%15.6%
Under22.1%46.4%68.7%84.4%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
33.1%
Over, even
20.6%
Under, odd
15.6%
Under, even
30.7%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
55.7%
Both teams to score: No
44.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Torreense
32.6%
Clean-sheet probability · Ararat-Armenia
18.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Torreense18.2%31.0%26.4%24.4%
Ararat-Armenia32.6%36.5%20.5%10.4%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
30.8%
H/D
5.2%
H/A
1.6%
Draw
D/H
16.8%
D/D
14.8%
D/A
9.2%
Away
A/H
2.8%
A/D
5.2%
A/A
13.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Torreense

A Portuguese club from Torres Vedras that plays in the second-tier Liga Portugal 2 and reached the UEFA Europa League after winning the 2025–26 Taça de Portugal.

City
Torres Vedras, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Manuel Marques
Founded
1917
Head coach
João Nuno

Ararat-Armenia

A Yerevan club founded in 2017 that has won several Armenian Premier League titles, including 2025–26, and is a regular in UEFA qualifying rounds.

City
Yerevan, Armenia
Stadium
Yerevan Football Academy Stadium (Vahagn Tumasyan Stadium)
Founded
2017
Head coach
Tulipa

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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