Serie A Β· Matchday 10
Juventus vs Napoli prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Juventus win 43%, draw 28%, Napoli win 29%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Juventus 2-0 Napoli. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Juventus" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Juventus | 42.8% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 7.4% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 25.5% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.7% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 15.1% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Juventus / Napoli
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Napoli
- 57%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 25%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Juventus (43%); expected goals Juventus 1.53 β 1.23 Napoli.
- 2.77 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
- Last five: Juventus LWLDW (2 wins), Napoli WDLWD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Juventus
- 1.53
- Expected goals Β· Napoli
- 1.23
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 33% / 43% / 25%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Juventus | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.9% | 5.9% | 91.2% |
| Home -2 | 8.8% | 13.3% | 77.9% |
| Home -1β | 22.1% | 20.7% | 57.2% |
| Home +1 | 70.8% | 16.3% | 12.8% |
| Home +2 | 87.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Home +3 | 95.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.2%
- 2:07.4%
- 2:19.1%
- 3:03.8%
- 3:14.7%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:01.4%
- 4:11.8%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:07.7%
- 1:113.3%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.3%
- 0:24.8%
- 1:27.3%
- 0:32.0%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.8% | 52.3% | 30.1% | 14.7% |
| Under | 22.2% | 47.7% | 69.9% | 85.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.4%
- Over, even
- 19.9%
- Under, odd
- 14.5%
- Under, even
- 33.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Juventus
- 29.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Napoli
- 21.6%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 21.6% | 33.1% | 25.4% | 20.0% |
| Napoli | 29.1% | 35.9% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 25.2% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 15.1% | D/D 16.6% | D/A 10.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 16.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Juventus
Turin's "Bianconeri" are Italy's most decorated club, with a record 36 Serie A titles, and compete in Serie A and in European competitions.
- City
- Turin, Italy
- Stadium
- Allianz Stadium
- Founded
- 1897
- Head coach
- Luciano Spalletti
Napoli
Southern Italy's biggest club, four-time Serie A champions (most recently 2024β25) and 2025β26 runners-up, known for its Maradona legacy and passionate fan base.
- City
- Naples, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
- Founded
- 1926
- Head coach
- Massimiliano Allegri
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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