Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 21
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Chapecoense a 20% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 56% for Vasco da Gama; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.92 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Vasco da Gama
- 56%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Chapecoense
- 44%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 36%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 56%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Vasco da Gama (56%); expected goals Chapecoense 1.04 – 1.88 Vasco da Gama.
- 2.92 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (36%).
- Last five: Chapecoense LLWLL (1 wins), Vasco da Gama WLWLD (2 wins).
- Last 1 meetings in the dataset: Chapecoense 0 wins, 1 draws, Vasco da Gama 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 8 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Chapecoense
- 1.04
- Expected goals · Vasco da Gama
- 1.88
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 19% / 39% / 42%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Chapecoense | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 97.9% |
| Home -2 | 2.1% | 5.4% | 92.5% |
| Home -1 | 7.5% | 12.2% | 80.4% |
| Home +1≈ | 44.1% | 22.8% | 33.1% |
| Home +2 | 66.9% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| Home +3 | 84.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:04.6%
- 2:02.9%
- 2:15.5%
- 3:01.0%
- 3:11.9%
- 3:21.8%
- 4:00.3%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.5%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:06.4%
- 1:111.6%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.1%
- 0:29.5%
- 1:29.9%
- 0:36.0%
- 1:36.2%
- 2:33.2%
- 0:42.8%
- 1:42.9%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:51.1%
- 1:51.1%
- 2:50.6%
- Other away win2.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.8% | 55.8% | 33.4% | 17.1% |
| Under | 20.2% | 44.2% | 66.6% | 82.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.1%
- Over, even
- 21.7%
- Under, odd
- 13.7%
- Under, even
- 30.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Chapecoense
- 15.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Vasco da Gama
- 35.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 35.3% | 36.8% | 19.1% | 8.8% |
| Vasco da Gama | 15.3% | 28.7% | 27.0% | 29.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 11.1% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 2.9% |
| Draw | D/H 7.2% | D/D 14.3% | D/A 17.0% |
| Away | A/H 1.3% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 36.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Chapecoense 19.6% · Draw 24.5% · Vasco da Gama 55.9% · 2.5+ 55.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.93 | 3.96 | 1.71 | 2.5: 1.75 / 2.13 | +1.5: 1.48 / 2.73 |
| MyBookie.ag | 4.80 | 3.80 | 1.65 | 2.5: 1.68 / 2.05 | +0.5: 2.14 / 1.63 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.50 | 3.65 | 1.62 | 2.5: 1.64 / 2.10 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.00 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.80 | 3.85 | 1.66 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.15 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.80 | 3.85 | 1.66 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.15 | – |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.35 | 3.50 | 1.55 | – | – |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.15 | 3.35 | 1.48 | – | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 12:20 PM UTC
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Club profiles
Chapecoense
Chapecoense is a club from Chapecó in Santa Catarina, known for winning the 2016 Copa Sudamericana after the plane crash that year, and it is playing in the 2026 Brasileirão Série A after promotion from Série B in 2025.
- City
- Chapecó, Brazil
- Stadium
- Arena Condá
- Founded
- 1973
- Head coach
- Rafael Lacerda
Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama is a traditional Rio de Janeiro club, nicknamed the "Gigante da Colina" and a four-time Brazilian league champion. Pedro Emanuel took over as head coach in July 2026 and has focused on a more solid defence.
- City
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Stadium
- Estádio São Januário
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- Pedro Emanuel
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Chapecoense
- LMirassol1-2 · 11-03
- L@ RB Bragantino0-3 · 10-28
- WFluminense2-1 · 10-24
- L@ Botafogo0-1 · 10-17
- LAthletico Paranaense1-4 · 10-12
Vasco da Gama
- W@ Athletico Paranaense3-1 · 11-04
- LFlamengo1-4 · 10-29
- WCorinthians3-2 · 10-24
- L@ São Paulo FC0-1 · 10-18
- DRemo0-0 · 10-10
Chapecoense 11 days rest · Vasco da Gama 10 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-05Vasco da Gama 1-1 ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A
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