K League 1 Β· Matchday 35
Jeju SK FC vs Gwangju FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Jeju SK FC win 49%, draw 26%, Gwangju FC win 25%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Jeju SK FC 1-1 Gwangju FC. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Jeju SK FC" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 26.0% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.4% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.8% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.6% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 15.7% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Jeju SK FC / Draw
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Gwangju FC
- 51%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Jeju United host Gwangju in Round 35 of the K League 1 Relegation Group. Jeju's last five games were all away, with no win in the latest four (D, L, L, L) after a 1-0 win at Gangwon. Gwangju are bottom and all but relegated, and may be without two defenders after injuries in their last match. Even so, they scored 12 goals in their last five, with Aidale and Bar Rua in form. Jeju won the last two meetings, 2-1 and 1-0, and have had six days of rest to Gwangju's seven.
The published probabilities make Jeju favourites at 52%, with a draw at 26% and a Gwangju win at 22%. Expected goals are 1.71β1.04, and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:0 (10%) and 2:1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring is 54%. These figures blend our model with the consensus of 18 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:26 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Jeju SK FC (49%); expected goals Jeju SK FC 1.64 β 1.13 Gwangju FC.
- 2.77 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (28%).
- Last five: Jeju SK FC DLLLW (1 wins), Gwangju FC DWLWD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 18 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Jeju SK FC
- 1.64
- Expected goals Β· Gwangju FC
- 1.13
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 44% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Jeju SK FC | Draw | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.9% | 7.2% | 88.9% |
| Home -2 | 11.1% | 15.0% | 73.9% |
| Home -1β | 26.1% | 22.5% | 51.4% |
| Home +1 | 74.6% | 15.2% | 10.2% |
| Home +2 | 89.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% |
| Home +3 | 96.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.5%
- 2:08.5%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:04.6%
- 3:15.2%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:01.9%
- 4:12.1%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.3%
- 0:07.0%
- 1:112.4%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.3%
- 0:24.0%
- 1:26.5%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:32.0%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.2% | 52.4% | 30.2% | 14.8% |
| Under | 22.8% | 47.6% | 69.8% | 85.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.5%
- Over, even
- 19.9%
- Under, odd
- 15.8%
- Under, even
- 31.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Jeju SK FC
- 32.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Gwangju FC
- 19.3%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK FC | 19.3% | 31.8% | 26.1% | 22.8% |
| Gwangju FC | 32.4% | 36.5% | 20.6% | 10.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 27.7% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 18.0% | D/D 15.7% | D/A 10.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.9% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 13.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Jeju return home after a run of four away games without a win, facing a Gwangju side that is bottom and all but relegated, and that may be missing two defenders after injuries in their last match. Gwangju's in-form attack (Aidale, Bar Rua) means they should still create chances, so we see this as a modest home edge in a game likely to produce goals. We nudge Jeju and the over-2.5 line slightly above the market.
- Gwangju FC Β· Gwangju are bottom and 10 points behind 11th-placed Bucheon, so a loss in Jeju would confirm last place whatever Bucheon do. (major Β· gukjenews.com)
- Gwangju FC Β· Defender Van Hroonsven and Ha Seung-woon went off injured against Gimcheon Sangmu, leaving a gap in Gwangju's defence. Their availability for this match is unconfirmed. (moderate Β· news.ikbc.co.kr)
- Gwangju FC Β· Striker Aidale has scored in six straight league games and netted six goals in October, the most in K League 1 that month. Bar Rua had 3 goals and 5 assists in October. (moderate Β· news.ikbc.co.kr)
- Gwangju FC Β· Gwangju have not lost at Jeju in 11 visits since August 2016 (5 wins, 6 draws), but they have not beaten Jeju in the three meetings this season (2 Jeju wins, 1 draw). (minor Β· gukjenews.com)
- Jeju SK FC Β· Jeju are 7th with 47 points in the Relegation Group, one point ahead of 8th-placed Anyang, and are winless in their last four (1 draw, 3 losses) going into this match. (minor Β· anewsa.com)
- Jeju SK FC Β· Winger Negueba has scored in three straight games, including in the 1-1 draw at Pohang, and is going for a fourth. He was picked in the Best XI for the previous round. (moderate Β· besteleven.com)
- Jeju SK FC Β· Kick-off is 14:00 local time at Jeju World Cup Stadium. No injury or suspension news for Jeju was found. (minor Β· besteleven.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Jeju SK FC
Formerly known as Jeju United and rebranded as Jeju SK in 2025, the SK Group-backed island club finished 11th in K League 1 in 2025.
- City
- Seogwipo (Jeju Island), South Korea
- Stadium
- Jeju World Cup Stadium
- Founded
- 1982
- Head coach
- SΓ©rgio Costa
Gwangju FC
Citizen club from Gwangju, founded in 2010, that won K League 2 in 2022, finished third in K League 1 in 2023 and reached the AFC Champions League Elite for the first time.
- City
- Gwangju, South Korea
- Stadium
- Gwangju Football Stadium
- Founded
- 2010
- Head coach
- Lee Jung-kyu
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: K League 1 β