J1 League Β· Matchday 13
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Vissel Kobe win 48%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus win 25%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Vissel Kobe 3-1 Nagoya Grampus. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Vissel Kobe" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Vissel Kobe | 48.4% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 5.8% | #8 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 17.1% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 18.1% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Vissel Kobe / Draw
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Nagoya Grampus
- 52%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 59%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Vissel Kobe (48%); expected goals Vissel Kobe 1.81 β 1.26 Nagoya Grampus.
- Goals look likely: 3.06 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (27%).
- Last five: Vissel Kobe DLWLW (2 wins), Nagoya Grampus DDWWL (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Vissel Kobe
- 1.81
- Expected goals Β· Nagoya Grampus
- 1.26
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 44% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Vissel Kobe | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.7% | 7.9% | 87.4% |
| Home -2 | 12.6% | 15.3% | 72.1% |
| Home -1β | 27.9% | 20.5% | 51.6% |
| Home +1 | 75.3% | 13.7% | 11.0% |
| Home +2 | 89.0% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Home +3 | 96.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.5%
- 2:07.6%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:04.6%
- 3:15.8%
- 3:23.6%
- 4:02.1%
- 4:12.6%
- 4:21.6%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.9%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.1%
- 0:06.6%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.5%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:14.0%
- 0:23.7%
- 1:26.7%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.8%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.9% | 59.1% | 36.7% | 19.5% |
| Under | 17.1% | 40.9% | 63.3% | 80.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.6%
- Over, even
- 23.5%
- Under, odd
- 10.5%
- Under, even
- 30.4%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 61.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 38.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Vissel Kobe
- 28.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Nagoya Grampus
- 16.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 16.4% | 29.7% | 26.8% | 27.1% |
| Nagoya Grampus | 28.5% | 35.8% | 22.5% | 13.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 26.9% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 18.1% | D/D 15.5% | D/A 10.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.3% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 12.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Vissel Kobe
Kobe-based J1 League club, champions in 2023 and 2024, that won the 2026 J1 100 Year Vision League under German coach Michael Skibbe.
- City
- Kobe, Japan
- Stadium
- Noevir Stadium Kobe
- Founded
- 1966
- Head coach
- Michael Skibbe
Nagoya Grampus
Toyota-backed founding member of the J.League and 2010 J1 champions, Nagoya Grampus are coached in 2026 by Mihailo PetroviΔ, whose side often line up in a 3-4-2-1.
- City
- Nagoya, Japan
- Stadium
- Toyota Stadium
- Founded
- 1939
- Head coach
- Mihailo PetroviΔ
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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