Ligue 1 · Matchday 8

Toulouse vs Troyes prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Toulouse
WDWDL
0 - 0
HT 0-0
Troyes
LLLLL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Toulouse win 60%, draw 22%, Troyes win 18%; the final score was 0:0.

Full time: Toulouse 0-0 Troyes. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Toulouse" — missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw22.3%#2 of 3
Correct score0:05.3%#7 of 31
Total goals0 goals5.3%#7 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.540.5%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/D12.7%#3 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Miss
Toulouse
60%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
Troyes
40%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
45%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
38%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
60%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Toulouse (60%); expected goals Toulouse 2.05 – 1.04 Troyes.
  • Goals look likely: 3.08 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (38%).
  • Last five: Toulouse WDWDL (2 wins), Troyes LLLLL (0 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Toulouse 60%Draw 22%Troyes 18%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Toulouse
2.05
Expected goals · Troyes
1.04
Most likely score
1:1 (10%)
Half-time result
44% / 38% / 18%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2ToulouseDrawTroyes
Home -37.8%10.8%81.3%
Home -218.7%18.5%62.8%
Home -1≈37.2%22.8%40.0%
Home +182.2%11.2%6.6%
Home +293.4%4.7%1.8%
Home +398.2%1.4%0.4%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Toulouse · Home
  • 1:08.7%
  • 2:09.6%
  • 2:19.9%
  • 3:06.5%
  • 3:16.8%
  • 3:23.5%
  • 4:03.3%
  • 4:13.5%
  • 4:21.8%
  • 5:01.4%
  • 5:11.4%
  • 5:20.7%
  • Other home win2.8%
Draw
  • 0:05.3%
  • 1:110.4%
  • 2:25.2%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.2%
Troyes · Away
  • 0:14.0%
  • 0:22.5%
  • 1:25.0%
  • 0:30.9%
  • 1:31.7%
  • 2:31.8%
  • 0:40.2%
  • 1:40.5%
  • 2:40.5%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.3%
1
12.7%
2
22.5%
3
22.4%
4
17.3%
5
10.6%
6
5.5%
7+
3.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over82.0%59.5%37.2%19.9%
Under18.0%40.5%62.8%80.1%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
35.8%
Over, even
23.8%
Under, odd
12.7%
Under, even
27.8%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
56.9%
Both teams to score: No
43.1%
Clean-sheet probability · Toulouse
35.5%
Clean-sheet probability · Troyes
12.9%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Toulouse12.9%26.4%27.1%33.6%
Troyes35.5%36.8%19.1%8.7%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
37.9%
H/D
4.8%
H/A
1.3%
Draw
D/H
18.7%
D/D
12.7%
D/A
6.8%
Away
A/H
3.3%
A/D
4.8%
A/A
9.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Toulouse

Toulouse are a southern French club, owned by RedBird Capital, who won the 2022–23 Coupe de France and are known for developing young players in Ligue 1.

City
Toulouse, France
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Founded
1937
Head coach
Jens Berthel Askou

Troyes

A City Football Group-owned club from Champagne, Troyes won the 2025-26 Ligue 2 title under Stéphane Dumont and are back in Ligue 1 for 2026-27.

City
Troyes, France
Stadium
Stade de l'Aube
Founded
1986
Head coach
Stéphane Dumont

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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