Serie A · Matchday 11
Parma vs Bologna prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Parma a 19% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 55% for Bologna; the single most likely score is 0:1 (13%) with 2.46 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Bologna
- 55%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Parma
- 45%
- Correct score
- 0:1 / 1:1
- 25%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 34%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 55%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Parma host Bologna in Serie A Matchday 11 after a mixed run: a 3-0 win at Atalanta and a 0-0 draw with Udinese, but also defeats against Lazio, Torino and Inter in their last five. They are also reported to have lost Bernabé. Bologna have won three in a row, including 4-2 at AC Milan, have seven days of rest against Parma's five, and have only fringe absences. Of the last four meetings, Parma won two, Bologna one, and one was drawn.
The published probabilities favour Bologna at 52%, with the draw at 27% and a Parma win at 21%. Expected goals are 0.92–1.57, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 0:1 (12%) and 0:2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 45% and both teams scoring at 49%, which points to a fairly tight, lower-scoring game.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:40 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Bologna (55%); expected goals Parma 0.84 – 1.62 Bologna.
- 2.46 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 45%).
- The single most likely score is 0:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (34%).
- Last five: Parma WDLLL (1 wins), Bologna WWWLW (4 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Parma 2 wins, 1 draws, Bologna 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Parma
- 0.84
- Expected goals · Bologna
- 1.62
- Most likely score
- 0:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 17% / 44% / 39%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Parma | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 98.5% |
| Home -2 | 1.5% | 4.7% | 93.9% |
| Home -1 | 6.1% | 12.4% | 81.4% |
| Home +1≈ | 45.2% | 24.7% | 30.1% |
| Home +2 | 69.9% | 17.2% | 12.9% |
| Home +3 | 87.1% | 8.4% | 4.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.3%
- 2:03.0%
- 2:14.9%
- 3:00.9%
- 3:11.4%
- 3:21.1%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.3%
- 4:20.2%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.0%
- 5:20.0%
- Other home win0.2%
- 0:09.5%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:24.0%
- 3:30.6%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:112.9%
- 0:211.2%
- 1:29.4%
- 0:36.0%
- 1:35.1%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:42.4%
- 1:42.0%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.8%
- 1:50.7%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71.3% | 44.5% | 23.3% | 10.3% |
| Under | 28.7% | 55.5% | 76.7% | 89.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 28.6%
- Over, even
- 15.9%
- Under, odd
- 19.2%
- Under, even
- 36.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 46.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 53.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Parma
- 19.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Bologna
- 43.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 43.1% | 36.3% | 15.3% | 5.4% |
| Bologna | 19.9% | 32.1% | 25.9% | 22.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 10.0% | H/D 4.7% | H/A 2.4% |
| Draw | D/H 7.5% | D/D 17.3% | D/A 18.7% |
| Away | A/H 1.0% | A/D 4.7% | A/A 33.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Parma 18.6% · Draw 26.6% · Bologna 54.8% · 2.5+ 44.5%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 5.51 | 3.60 | 1.76 | 2.25: 1.95 / 1.95 | +0.75: 1.93 / 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 5.46 | 3.69 | 1.78 | 2.5: 2.24 / 1.76 | +1.5: 1.37 / 3.53 |
| BetAnything | 5.00 | 3.55 | 1.76 | 2.25: 1.88 / 1.94 | +0.5: 2.15 / 1.74 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.44 | 3.61 | 1.74 | 2.5: 2.17 / 1.71 | +0.5: 2.16 / 1.74 |
| Coolbet | 5.30 | 3.65 | 1.77 | 2.5: 2.20 / 1.74 | +1: 1.61 / 2.44 |
| GTbets | 5.04 | 3.68 | 1.79 | 2.5: 2.13 / 1.73 | +0.5: 2.12 / 1.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.30 | 3.58 | 1.73 | 2.5: 2.17 / 1.70 | +1: 1.60 / 2.34 |
| Betsson | 5.20 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 2.5: 2.18 / 1.70 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.76 | 2.5: 2.04 / 1.67 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.80 | 3.45 | 1.68 | 2.5: 2.10 / 1.73 | – |
| Matchbook | 5.80 | 3.65 | 1.77 | – | +0.75: 1.94 / 1.98 |
| Nordic Bet | 5.15 | 3.45 | 1.72 | 2.5: 2.22 / 1.62 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 4.70 | 3.40 | 1.66 | 2.5: 1.96 / 1.63 | – |
| Tipico | 5.20 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 2.5: 2.05 / 1.72 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Bologna are rightful favourites: three straight wins, a club-record away campaign in 2026 and a week to prepare, with only fringe absences. Parma's 3-0 at Atalanta and back-to-back clean sheets suggest they can frustrate, but the loss of Bernabé limits their already weak attack. We sit almost exactly on the market, leaning marginally toward a tight, lower-scoring game.
- Parma · Midfielder Adrián Bernabé is out again with a left rectus femoris muscle injury, which he picked up on 1 November. (moderate · agimeg.it)
- Parma · Defender Dominik Drobnic is listed as unavailable or doubtful. (minor · sportitalia.it)
- Parma · Parma play 5 days after winning 3-0 at Atalanta, and Gilardino has said they get two fewer rest days than Bologna. Nicolussi Caviglia is back in contention in midfield. (minor · bet365.it)
- Parma · Parma are 15th with 8 points and have the league's second-worst attack, with 8 goals in 10 games. They are coming off two clean sheets. (moderate · footballwhispers.com)
- Bologna · Bologna are without Emil Holm and Jay Enem through injury, and Lorenzo De Silvestri is also out. Sources differ on whether Enem and De Silvestri are doubtful or definitely out. (minor · sportitalia.it)
- Bologna · Striker Santiago Piccoli is back in training after injury and is expected to start on the bench. Odgaard is favoured to lead the attack ahead of Dovbyk. (minor · sosfanta.com)
- Bologna · Bologna have won three straight league games under Palladino, against Cagliari, Milan and Monza. They have 10 away wins in the calendar year, a club record. They have had 7 days' rest, and Mbangula is tipped to start. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Parma
Emilia-Romagna club known for its 1990s European success, refounded after the 2015 bankruptcy and back in Serie A since 2024, finishing 13th in 2025–26.
- City
- Parma, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Ennio Tardini
- Founded
- 1913
- Head coach
- Alberto Gilardino
Bologna
Historic Emilia-Romagna club nicknamed the Rossoblù, seven-time Italian champions in the early and mid-20th century, who returned to the Champions League in 2024–25 after qualifying via a fifth-place Serie A finish.
- City
- Bologna, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Raffaele Palladino
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Parma
- W@ Atalanta3-0 · 11-02
- DUdinese0-0 · 10-28
- L@ Lazio1-2 · 10-24
- LTorino0-3 · 10-19
- L@ Inter0-3 · 10-10
Bologna
- WMonza2-1 · 10-31
- W@ AC Milan4-2 · 10-28
- W@ Cagliari2-0 · 10-24
- LInter1-3 · 10-17
- W@ Lecce2-1 · 10-11
Parma 5 days rest · Bologna 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-08Bologna 0-1 ParmaSerie A
- 2025-11-02Parma 1-3 BolognaSerie A
- 2025-02-22Parma 2-0 BolognaSerie A
- 2024-10-06Bologna 0-0 ParmaSerie A
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