Primeira Liga · Matchday 11
Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Alverca a 52% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 21% for Casa Pia; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.56 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Alverca
- 52%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Casa Pia
- 48%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 24%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Alverca host Casa Pia in Primeira Liga round 11 having won three and lost two of their last five, including 0-1 defeats to Benfica and Arouca and a 4-1 win at Famalicão. Casa Pia have won two and lost three, and have had eight days of rest against five for the hosts. Alverca won both recent meetings, 3-1 in April and 2-0 last November. Pre-match reports mention several injuries on the home side.
The published probabilities make Alverca favourites at 54%, with a draw at 26% and a Casa Pia win at 20%. Expected goals are 1.69–0.95. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:0 (11%) and 2:0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 49% and both teams scoring at 51%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:43 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Alverca (52%); expected goals Alverca 1.62 – 0.94 Casa Pia.
- 2.56 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: Alverca LLWWW (3 wins), Casa Pia LWLWL (2 wins).
- Last 2 meetings in the dataset: Alverca 2 wins, 0 draws, Casa Pia 0 wins.
- Rest gap: Alverca 5 days, Casa Pia 8 days (not a model input).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Alverca
- 1.62
- Expected goals · Casa Pia
- 0.94
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 46% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Alverca | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.2% | 7.9% | 87.9% |
| Home -2 | 12.1% | 16.4% | 71.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 28.5% | 24.0% | 47.5% |
| Home +1 | 78.9% | 13.6% | 7.5% |
| Home +2 | 92.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Home +3 | 98.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:011.7%
- 2:010.1%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:05.5%
- 3:15.1%
- 3:22.4%
- 4:02.2%
- 4:12.1%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:08.5%
- 1:112.6%
- 2:24.5%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.5%
- 0:23.4%
- 1:25.5%
- 0:31.1%
- 1:31.7%
- 2:31.4%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.4%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73.3% | 47.2% | 25.6% | 11.7% |
| Under | 26.7% | 52.8% | 74.4% | 88.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.9%
- Over, even
- 17.3%
- Under, odd
- 18.2%
- Under, even
- 34.7%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 49.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 50.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Alverca
- 39.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Casa Pia
- 19.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 19.8% | 32.1% | 26.0% | 22.2% |
| Casa Pia | 39.0% | 36.7% | 17.3% | 7.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.9% | H/D 4.8% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 19.8% | D/D 16.9% | D/A 9.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 4.8% | A/A 10.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Alverca 52.5% · Draw 26.4% · Casa Pia 21.1% · 2.5+ 47.2%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.63 | 4.89 | 2.25: 1.82 / 2.09 | -0.75: 2.07 / 1.85 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.79 | 3.55 | 4.60 | 2.25: 1.78 / 2.02 | -0.75: 2.00 / 1.82 |
| Coolbet | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.30 | 2.5: 2.01 / 1.78 | -1: 2.54 / 1.50 |
| GTbets | 1.79 | 3.51 | 4.46 | 2.5: 1.99 / 1.79 | -0.5: 1.78 / 2.02 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.78 | 3.50 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.99 / 1.76 | -1: 2.48 / 1.49 |
| Matchbook | 1.85 | 3.65 | 4.90 | 2.5: 2.08 / 1.85 | -0.75: 2.06 / 1.85 |
| Betsson | 1.75 | 3.45 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.98 / 1.78 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.74 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.95 / 1.71 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.75 | 3.45 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.98 / 1.78 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.72 | 3.25 | 4.10 | 2.5: 1.88 / 1.65 | – |
| Tipico | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 2.5: 1.90 / 1.85 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.97 / 1.72 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.5: 1.97 / 1.72 | – |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.95 / 1.75 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Alverca are rightly favoured at home, but a stack of injuries, a three-match losing run and a shorter rest period justify shading them slightly below the market while nudging Casa Pia up. Most of the team news was already public before pricing, so the adjustment is small. Recent low-scoring form on both sides points to a slightly under-the-market chance of three or more goals.
- Alverca · Goalkeeper Jhonatan Luiz (right thigh) is doubtful. He was injured in the last training session before the Benfica game and missed that squad. (moderate · record.pt)
- Alverca · Midfielder Rayan Lucas (knee) is doubtful after getting hurt in the same pre-Benfica training session. (moderate · record.pt)
- Alverca · Bastien Meupiyou and Sabit Abdulai are out injured. Julián Martínez is also listed as out by some outlets. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Alverca · Steven Baseya and André Vidigal have served suspensions and are available again. Abdu Dafé is also available after a suspension. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Alverca · Alverca have lost three straight in all competitions, and the latest was 0-1 at Benfica on 2 November. They also have only 5 days' rest. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Casa Pia · Goalkeeper André Gomes is Casa Pia's only confirmed absentee. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Casa Pia · Jérémy Livolant is pushing for a starting place after playing 45 minutes against Sporting. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Casa Pia · David Sousa is one yellow card from a suspension, which would rule him out of the Taça de Portugal tie on 21 November. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Alverca
Futebol Clube de Alverca is a club from the Lisbon area that returned to the Primeira Liga in 2025–26, finishing 11th in its first season back; Vinícius Júnior is a majority owner.
- City
- Alverca do Ribatejo, Portugal
- Stadium
- Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
- Founded
- 1939
Casa Pia
A Lisbon club nicknamed "Os Gansos" (The Geese), tied to the Casa Pia children's charity, who returned to the Primeira Liga in 2022–23 and finished 9th in both 2023–24 and 2024–25.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio Pina Manique
- Founded
- 1920
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Alverca
- L@ Benfica0-1 · 11-02
- LArouca0-1 · 10-24
- W@ Famalicão4-1 · 10-12
- WRio Ave1-0 · 09-19
- W@ Nacional3-1 · 09-12
Casa Pia
- LSporting CP0-2 · 10-30
- W@ Estrela Amadora2-0 · 10-24
- LSanta Clara0-1 · 10-10
- W@ Estoril2-1 · 09-20
- LFC Porto1-4 · 09-12
Alverca 5 days rest · Casa Pia 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-12Alverca 3-1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 2025-11-29Casa Pia 0-2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
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