Primeira Liga · Matchday 11

Famalicão vs Arouca prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Famalicão
LWLWD
1 - 0
HT 0-0
Arouca
WWWDL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Famalicão win 47%, draw 23%, Arouca win 31%; the final score was 1:0.

Full time: Famalicão 1-0 Arouca. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Famalicão" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultFamalicão46.5%most likely
Correct score1:013.7%most likely
Total goals1 goals24.6%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.554.9%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/H18.3%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Famalicão / Arouca
77%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Arouca
53%
Correct scoreHit
1:0 / 0:1
25%
Total goalsHit
1 / 2 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
26%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Under
55%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Famalicão (47%); expected goals Famalicão 1.41 – 1.07 Arouca.
  • 2.48 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 45%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:0 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (26%).
  • Last five: Famalicão LWLWD (2 wins), Arouca WWWDL (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Famalicão 47%Draw 23%Arouca 31%

No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals · Famalicão
1.41
Expected goals · Arouca
1.07
Most likely score
1:0 (14%)
Half-time result
32% / 46% / 23%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2FamalicãoDrawArouca
Home -32.5%5.6%91.9%
Home -28.1%13.3%78.6%
Home -1≈21.4%25.1%53.5%
Home +169.4%19.6%11.0%
Home +289.0%7.7%3.2%
Home +396.8%2.5%0.8%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Famalicão · Home
  • 1:013.7%
  • 2:08.3%
  • 2:18.9%
  • 3:03.9%
  • 3:14.2%
  • 3:22.2%
  • 4:01.4%
  • 4:11.5%
  • 4:20.8%
  • 5:00.4%
  • 5:10.4%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.7%
Draw
  • 0:06.5%
  • 1:110.7%
  • 2:24.8%
  • 3:30.8%
  • Other draw0.1%
Arouca · Away
  • 0:110.9%
  • 0:24.8%
  • 1:26.8%
  • 0:31.7%
  • 1:32.4%
  • 2:31.7%
  • 0:40.5%
  • 1:40.6%
  • 2:40.5%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.1%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.5%
1
24.6%
2
23.9%
3
21.3%
4
13.2%
5
6.5%
6
2.7%
7+
1.4%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over68.9%45.1%23.8%10.6%
Under31.1%54.9%76.2%89.4%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
28.9%
Over, even
16.2%
Under, odd
24.6%
Under, even
30.3%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
47.8%
Both teams to score: No
52.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Famalicão
34.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Arouca
24.5%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Famalicão24.5%34.5%24.2%16.8%
Arouca34.2%36.7%19.7%9.4%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
25.8%
H/D
4.1%
H/A
1.8%
Draw
D/H
18.3%
D/D
14.6%
D/A
12.8%
Away
A/H
2.5%
A/D
4.1%
A/A
15.9%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Famalicão

A club from northern Portugal that returned to the Primeira Liga in 2019 and now competes as an established top-flight side, with foreign investment in its ownership.

City
Vila Nova de Famalicão, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Founded
1931
Head coach
Ricardo Silva

Arouca

A small-town club from northern Portugal's Porto district, in the Primeira Liga since 2021 and usually a mid-to-lower-table side.

City
Arouca, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Founded
1951
Head coach
Vítor Severino

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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